... the waters where hurricanes roam haven't received the memo. ...
In addition to the warm ocean waters, there is a possible development of La Nina.
February 2024 ENSO Outlook: All along the La Nia WATCH-tower
www.climate.gov
... On a brisk early February morning, all of us El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasters emerged from our burrows and saw our shadows. That can mean only one thing: conditions are favorable for the development of La Nia within the next six months.
Yes, the February ENSO Outlook officially announces that we are in a La Nia Watch, even while, at the current moment, the Pacific Ocean remains in an El Nio (this is simultaneous to the ongoing El Nio Advisory -- here is an explainer to help sort it out). The outlook gives a 79% chance that El Nio will transition to ENSO-Neutral by the April"June period, and then a 55% chance the Pacific transitions into La Nia in June"August.
Confused? I'll explain it all without the help of any prognosticating rodents (take THAT, Punxsutawney Phil). ...
OK, so what about a possible La Nina?
There's this...
NWS Jackson, MS: El Nino and La Nina
www.weather.gov
... How do El Nino and La Nina affect the Atlantic hurricane season?
The change in winds with height is referred to as vertical wind shear. Hurricane formation requires that winds be fairly uniform throughout the atmosphere. In other words, hurricanes cannot form if the vertical wind shear is too high.
El Nino produces stronger westerly wind at upper levels of the atmosphere across the tropical Atlantic than in normal non-El Nino seasons. This increases the total vertical wind shear, basically shearing the tops from developing storms before a healthy circulation can form. El Nino events generally suppress Atlantic hurricane activity so fewer hurricanes than normal form in the Atlantic during August to October, the peak of Atlantic hurricane season.
During La Nina, westerly winds high in the atmosphere weaken. This results in an expanded area of low vertical wind shear, allowing more Atlantic hurricanes to develop during La Nina events. La Nina increases the number of hurricanes that develop and allows stronger hurricanes to form.
The chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience a hurricane increase substantially during La Nina and decrease during El Nino. ...
So... combined with the warmer ocean temps, La Nina could be a part f the one-two punch....
