Trump's Demographic Problem

Sunday, February 25, 2024

If America were dominated by old, white, election-denying Christians who didn't go to college, former President Trump would win the general election in as big of a landslide as his sweep of the first four GOP contests.

Posted by LampLighter at 06:32 PM | 27 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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More from the article...

... Why it matters: It's not. That's why some top Republicans are worried about the general election in November, despite Trump's back-to-back-to-back-to-back wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. ...

By the numbers: Trump dominates with older white voters without college diplomas who believe the last election was rigged, according to network exit polls and AP VoteCast, which interviewed 2,440 South Carolina primary voters over five days.

Where he won: Two-thirds of Trump voters were white and didn't go to college. (VoteCast)

- - - Three-quarters of those without a college degree went for Trump. (CNN)

- - - 83% of "angry" voters backed Trump. (ABC)

Where he lost: 75% of Haley supporters correctly said Biden was legitimately elected president in 2020 (about 40% of them voted for Biden). (VoteCast)

- - - A stunning 62% of Republican primary voters said Biden wasn't legitimately elected. (NBC)

Those who went to the polls reflected Trump's strengths:

- - - This was the oldest South Carolina GOP electorate this century. (Chuck Todd)

- - - 60% of primary voters were white evangelical or born-again Christians. (CNN)

Reality check: That group isn't remotely big enough to win a presidential election. ...

The article has some other interesting observations, worth a read...

#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-02-25 12:48 PM | Reply

What's to stop the Trumpists from doing what they accuse the Dems of?

Stealing elections?

Trump should be disqualified for attempting to steal the last election.

Why does Brazil get this but America is so clueless about protecting it's political system from a Usurper?

Bolsonaro got banned after he tried a similar stunt when he lost.

But Trump will just steal this one.

#2 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2024-02-25 01:17 PM | Reply

From the link cited in the sub-summary...

Trump Still Loves the Uneducated: Just Told His Supporters How Stupid They Really Are
www.politicalflare.com

... At a campaign rally in Nevada, Donald Trump went way out on a limb with a guess at just how smart his supporters are. Well, maybe not way out on a limb, but he was counting on them not realizing he was insulting them to their faces.

Or maybe he just didn't think this through.

Either way, in the course of crowing about how smart he is, he told the Nevada crowd again about the cognitive test he took. You remember, the "person, woman, man, camera, TV" test. Then he basically told them they were too stupid to pass it.

The crowd cheered him for saying "There's only about 2% of this room that can do it." ...

Yeah, there's nothing like calling your supporters stupid, and those supporters actually cheering you for saying they are stupid.

Wow.

#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-02-25 06:59 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Articles like this miss the point(s).
Trump doesn't need to win In a landslide.
Many of his supporters see him as entertainment and a way to give the finger to the other party/the status quo. They want to burn the system down and start over.
Young people do not reliably turn out to vote, but even many of the ones who do share that sentiment.

Trump's problem isn't demographics. His biggest problem is he's not running against a Bush or Clinton. Haley is probably the closest thing to a stand-in for HRC, but she won't be in the general election if he gets the nomination

#4 | Posted by sentinel at 2024-02-25 08:31 PM | Reply

They want to burn the system down and start over.

Define "start over".

#5 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-02-25 08:42 PM | Reply

@#4 ... Articles like this miss the point(s).
Trump doesn't need to win In a landslide. ...

Did the article say that?

From the article...

... If America were dominated by old, white, election-denying Christians who didn't go to college, former President Trump would win the general election in as big of a landslide as his sweep of the first four GOP contests. ...

That hardly sounds like the article is saying fmr Pres Trump needs to win in a landsliade.

... Many of his supporters see him as entertainment and a way to give the finger to the other party/the status quo. They want to burn the system down and start over. ...

Yup.

And that is fmr Pres Trump's problem. That works in the primaries, but in a general election?

... Young people do not reliably turn out to vote, but even many of the ones who do share that sentiment. ...

Gen-Z seems to have a differing approach.

#6 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-02-25 08:43 PM | Reply

Gen Z Voted at a Higher Rate in 2022 than Previous Generations in their First Midterm Election
circle.tufts.edu

... The 2022 election was the first midterm contest in which Generation Z made up the entire age 18-24 cohort of potential voters. A new CIRCLE analysis of Census data shows that youth voted at a higher rate in that election than Millennials, Gen X, and likely Boomers did in their generations' first midterm election"highlighting the trend of historic political engagement by today's youth.

According to data from the Census Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration Supplement, 28.4% of youth ages 18-24 cast a ballot in 2022. That's significantly higher than the 23% of Millennials who voted in 2006 and 23.5% of Gen Xers who voted in 1990, when each generation first made up the whole of that age group. It's also higher than Baby Boomers' 27.9% turnout in that generations' second midterm election in 1974. (Census voting data from before 1972 is not available.) ...

#7 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-02-25 08:45 PM | Reply

#3 Lamp

I typically avoid any speeches or quotes of Dumpster's like the plague they are, but sometimes they are in the article headlines. So, maybe Dumpster has said this before. Anywho, in typical narcissist, gaslighting fashion Trump claimed his rambling speech pattern, ie his inability to form coherent sentences, is a sign he is a genius. And just like that, the deplorables will now decry any honest assessment outlining Dumpster's cognitive decline and will applauded Dumpster's ramblings as the mark of a genius. In which case, my 2.5 year old has seen a startling decline in his mental capacity over the last year.

#8 | Posted by gavaster at 2024-02-25 09:07 PM | Reply

What the F are you looney libs on about now? According to RCP, Trump is up nationally over ------------....including in EVERY battle ground state...it has shifted so much that Ohio and FL are not even considered battlegrounds anymore. So, if the demographic nonsense spewed in this article is correct, how can Trump be kicking the literal ---- out of the dementia patient Joe Biden? It is like you are living in some fantasyland where your lawfare matters to people and the Deep State is actually respected and thought of as necessary. Sorry, big changes are coming and it is going to rock your world. Fortunately for you, you will be richer, happier, and safer as a result - hell, it might even help cure your multiple mental illnesses.

#9 | Posted by Claudio at 2024-02-25 11:41 PM | Reply

@#9 ... What the F are you looney libs on about now? According to RCP, Trump is up nationally over ------------....including in EVERY battle ground state.. ...

If that is correct, what does it signify?

That fmr Pres Trump may win in his attempt to destroy Democracy?

If that is the case, why do you seem to be so supportive of it?

#10 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-02-25 11:51 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

"If that is correct,"

IT IS

"what does it signify?"

It signifies that the entire premise of this article is wrong. I know you -------- have no aversion to fake news so long as it is anti-Trump, but this article is downright delusional. This is equivalent to saying Elon Musk has financial problems - it is utter divorced from reality and moronic.

"That fmr Pres Trump may win in his attempt to destroy Democracy?"

Because he will win in a non-fixed election? Because he will utterly destroy the Deep State and the all the inappropriate government overreach the -------- have installed over the last couple of decades? That is WHY HE IS WINNING.

"If that is the case, why do you seem to be so supportive of it?
#10 | POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER"

I am 100% supportive of it - this national cannot survive another 4 years of Democrat rule.

#11 | Posted by Claudio at 2024-02-26 02:16 AM | Reply

@#11 ... "If that is correct,"

IT IS ...

What evidence does your alias have to back up that "IT IS?"

... It signifies that the entire premise of this article is wrong. ...

But your alias proffers an assertion that based upon ... what?

If a house is built upon quicksand, it will sink.

Albert Collins, Robert Cray and Johnny Copeland - The Dream (1987)
www.youtube.com

#12 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-02-26 03:01 AM | Reply

"What evidence does your alias have to back up that "IT IS?"

The RCP average -------, look it up - it ain't rocket science.

"... It signifies that the entire premise of this article is wrong. ...
But your alias proffers an assertion that based upon ... what?
#12 | POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER"

You have a basic problem with logic that makes it near impossible to have a productive conversation with you. If the article posits that Trump has a demographic problem because he only has support from old white males without college degrees, it would imply that Trump would be losing bad nationally as the 'old white males without college degrees' is a very small segment of the country - and yet, we see Trump winning. So, either the 'old white male without college degrees' makes up about 60% of the country - OR - Trump has huge support in demographics beyond this. As the 'old white male without college degrees' is a known %, the only explanation is that the basic premise of this article is utter ---------. And - this will be the last time I explain basic logic to you.

#13 | Posted by Claudio at 2024-02-26 03:09 AM | Reply

"That hardly sounds like the article is saying fmr Pres Trump needs to win in a landsliade."

Why would the article even mention that unless it was implying it had some sort of significance or relevance to the point it was trying to make?

"Yup.
And that is fmr Pres Trump's problem. That works in the primaries, but in a general election?"

To an extent, yes. Especially those who are always inclined to vote anti-incumbent. It really comes down to whether he can motivate more anti-Biden/antiestablishment/anti-status-quo voters to show up in enough states to win E L E C T O R A L L Y.

Being overconfident and cocky about "demographics" has never helped Democrats in the past, and it's certainly not helping now.

"Gen-Z seems to have a differing approach."

Until they can prove reliability, that's just wishful thinking.

#14 | Posted by sentinel at 2024-02-26 10:08 AM | Reply

If this was so true why are the Dems trying to remove him from the ballot?

#15 | Posted by fishpaw at 2024-02-26 12:33 PM | Reply

"why are the Dems trying to remove him from the ballot?"

Why are Republicans are trying to remove him from the ballot?

#16 | Posted by snoofy at 2024-02-26 01:28 PM | Reply

I've worked on campaigns and had access to voter data.NOBODY votes more reliably than old white people.

#17 | Posted by Miranda7 at 2024-02-26 08:13 PM | Reply

Most old white people voted for Biden, Einstein.

#18 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2024-02-26 10:59 PM | Reply

I am 100% supportive of it - this national cannot survive another 4 years of Democrat rule.

#11 | POSTED BY CLAUDIO

Duhhhhh CaNt SuRviVeZ!!!

Idiot.

#19 | Posted by jpw at 2024-02-27 10:09 AM | Reply

But Trump will just steal this one.
#2 | POSTED BY EFFETEPOSER

Without control of the federal government it will probably be harder for him to do that, but he's definitely going to try.

#20 | Posted by Joe at 2024-02-27 10:41 AM | Reply

I am 100% supportive of it - this national cannot survive another 4 years of Democrat rule.

#11 | POSTED BY CLAUDIO

Yeah with the booming economy, low unemployment, dropping interest rates...

So hard right now... We should go back to worshipping our enemies, giving tax cuts to billionaires, and the stupidity of Donald Trump.

#21 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-02-27 10:52 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

- giving tax cuts to billionaires

Deficit spending based tax cuts to billionaires, no less.

#22 | Posted by Corky at 2024-02-27 10:56 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

"this national cannot survive another 4 years of Democrat rule"

After posting numbers Republicans would tout.

Remember when Romney made pie-in-the-sky predictions, Obama exceeded them, and Republicans still complained? I observed first-hand.

#23 | Posted by Danforth at 2024-02-27 10:57 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

this national cannot survive another 4 years of Democrat rule.

#11 | POSTED BY CLAUDIO

Yeah with the booming economy, low unemployment, dropping interest rates...

So hard right now... We should go back to worshipping our enemies, giving tax cuts to billionaires, and the stupidity of Donald Trump.

Posted by Sycophant at 2024-02-27 10:52 AM | Reply | Flagged newsworthy by Corky

When you understand Clodio is posting from Russia, his comment makes perfect sense.

But I get it...lowest inflation rate in the free world, most jobs created under any first term president, 4% GDP growth.... etc... I can understand why any russian bot would be hysterical over this.

#24 | Posted by Nixon at 2024-02-27 11:06 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

this national cannot survive another 4 years of Democrat rule

What actually is going to happen that our survival is endangered? Let's see the list.

#25 | Posted by brass30 at 2024-02-27 04:27 PM | Reply

why are the Dems trying to remove him from the ballot

Because he tried to negate about 8 million votes with zero evidence? And still does to this day.

It's really scary the large following of regular people and people in power who support this person.

This is not policy. This flat out lying and not relinquishing power.

#26 | Posted by brass30 at 2024-02-27 04:34 PM | Reply

Trump killed too many of his supporters during covid to win another election. It even cost them the midterms. How karmic and poetic.

#27 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2024-02-27 05:01 PM | Reply