Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News

Drudge Retort

User Info

berto42

Subscribe to berto42's blog Subscribe

Menu

Special Features

Comments

In many ways, Asimov's predictions from back in 1983 have been remarkably accurate. And yet it is also remarkable that, compared to most predictions about the future made in that period (and Asimov was probably more cautious than most others), the humankind has definitely underperformed and so far is lagging behind what those predictions expected.

Humans have not been back to the Moon since the 1970s and there are certainly no factories there or any other forms of organized human activity. In general, in terms of manned space exploration, humans have retreated somewhat compared to where we were in the 1970s-1980s.

Progress in robotics has been much slower than predicted and the same goes for Artificial Intelligence (try having an intelligent interaction with Amazon's Alexa to see how far back we still are in terms of AI development).
Progress in medicine has also been slower than most predictions expected. We still have nothing close to cures for cancer, alzheimer's, migranes, flu, and so on.

Since nuclear power, no substantively new sources of energy have been discovered (e.g. cold fusion remains just a pipe dream).
We are getting better at using renewable sources of energy such as solar, wind, ocean waves, etc, but there too the progress has been much less dramatic than most predictions.

Self-driving cars are still only in the experimental stage. Even electric cars are still mostly a novelty item.

While small drones are kind of faddy now, their use remains limited and there are no new midsize flying transportation devices on the horizon (nothing like flying cars, jet-packs, etc).

The transition to knowledge/skills based economy that Asimov discusses is under way, but it is still in fairly early stages and it is certainly not the case that "by the year 2019, however, we should find that the transition is about over".

In terms of social and political process in the world things don't look that impressive either.

Overall, it does feel like the future is not now.

Drudge Retort
 

Home | Breaking News | Comments | User Blogs | Stats | Back Page | RSS Feed | RSS Spec | DMCA Compliance | Privacy | Copyright 2019 World Readable