Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: Our polls-only model has [Donald] Trump with a 19 percent chance of beating [Hillary] Clinton as of early Wednesday afternoon. (The forecasts will continually update as new polls are added.) Our polls-plus model, which considers economic conditions along with the polls, is more optimistic about Trump, giving him a 26 percent chance. Still, Trump faces longer odds and a bigger polling deficit than John McCain and Mitt Romney did at the same point in their respective races. He needs to look back to 1988 for comfort, when George H.W. Bush overcame a similar deficit against Michael Dukakis to win. ... Giving Clinton a 70 percent or 75 percent chance of winning might seem bold. It's actually fairly cautious, however, compared with what the model would normally say about a candidate with a 7-point lead. read more
Reports coming from friends and acquaintances of Omar Mateen indicate that he may have been secretly gay. A number of people have said Mateen frequented the club where he killed 50 people. Some have reported that he had used gay dating apps and had asked them out on dates. "Sometimes he would go over in the corner and sit and drink by himself, and other times he would get so drunk he was loud and belligerent," one witness, Ty Smith, told the Orlando Sentinel. An Orlando man told MSNBC's Chris Hayes on Monday that he had seen photos of Mateen on the gay dating app Grindr.
Republican Sen. Mark Kirk of Illinois, facing a challenge from Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth, reversed himself and withdrew his support for Donald Trump. "I cannot and will not support my party's nominee for president regardless of the political impact on my candidacy or the Republican Party," Kirk said. "After much consideration, I have concluded that Donald Trump has not demonstrated the temperament necessary to assume the greatest office in the world." Kirk came under sharp criticism from Duckworth over Trump attacking the impartiality of the judge in his Trump University fraud case and calling him a "Mexican" even though he was born in Indiana.
A 50-year-old man was taken into custody Wednesday afternoon after leading police on a high-speed chase that ended in Nashua, New Hampshire. Video from two copters shows that after the man gets out of his vehicle and laid down to surrender, a half-dozen cops surrounded him and punched and kicked him repeatedly. Police sources told a TV reporter that after an initial review of the video, an investigation is likely. Former Boston police commissioner Ed Davis questioned their actions. "Clearly, this is a tough video," he said. read more
Despite the success of his campaign, it doesn't appear that Trump has had much of an impact on the broader GOP. A look at other races for Senate and Gubernatorial seats indicates that traditional candidates are still the favorites to win the Party's nominations. Whether it is open seats or those already held by a GOP incumbent, ballot applications are not showing a flood of insurgent candidates nor are polls or donations showing an interest by Party voters for such candidates.