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Thursday, November 17, 2016

As news of 's shocking loss sinks in, many Clinton supporters looking for someone to blame are pointing fingers at a familiar scapegoat: people who voted outside the two-party system.

Pundits are already trying to blame Libertarian Gary Johnson and me, the Green party candidate, for Trump's win. For example, MSNBC's Rachel Maddow concocted a scenario in which by taking every Stein vote and half of Johnson's votes, Clinton could have grabbed enough states from Trump to eke out an electoral college win, a story repeated by CNN. Unwilling to accept that Clinton didn't motivate enough voters to win the presidency, and explore the reasons why, many pundits are instead looking to put responsibility for the loss onto others.

First the facts: if every single Stein voter had voted for Clinton, Clinton still lost. read more


Thursday, November 10, 2016

Jonathan Tasini, CNN: There is only one silver lining in yesterday's election results, which will allow a con man, a pathological liar, a bold racist and a sexual predator to succeed the first African-American president. We can now launch a difficult but urgent mission -- shaking the Democratic Party down to its foundation, ejecting the failed Bill/Hillary Clinton economic and global worldview and standing up for a set of populist, sound economic and foreign policy principles that could earn majority support. read more


Wednesday, November 02, 2016

As Nov. 8 draws nearer and the presidential between and reaches a fever pitch, undecided voters are feeling the pressure to make up their minds on who to support. The two major party candidates running for president have drawn both fierce defenders and vicious critics. Some are even saying that they would rather not vote than be forced to cast a vote for either Clinton or Trump. Well, listen up unenthused voters, Nevada has the answer for you.

In a peculiar turn of events, Nevada's ballots list "none of these candidates" as a voting option. It is the only state in the nation to provide this choice for its residents. read more


Monday, October 10, 2016

Canada made a rare appearance in a US presidential debate Sunday when accused of wanting to turn America's health system into a "catastrophic" single-payer one like Canada's.

"You've noticed," he said, "the Canadians, when they need a big operation, they come into the United States in many cases, because their system is so slow."

This idea is often floated by critics of universal health care on both sides of the border.

But the best-available research shows it's simply not true. Canadians are not fleeing en masse to the US seeking medical care.


Monday, September 26, 2016

Whatever arguments we've had about the polls this week will soon be swamped by the reaction to Monday's presidential debate. As a rough guide, I'd expect us to have some initial sense of how the debate has moved the numbers by Thursday or Friday based on quick-turnaround polls, and a clearer one by next Sunday or so, when an array of higher-quality polls will begin to report their post-debate results as well. But in the meantime, let's take one more step back and ask our usual collection of 10 questions about where the presidential race stands.


Comments

It seems the September 25th report that I posted from FiveThirtyEight was pretty close to the mark.

6. Does one candidate appear to have an overall edge in the Electoral College, relative to his or her position in the popular vote?

It's complicated. There could plausibly be an Electoral College-popular vote split in either direction, but our models say that Trump is somewhat more likely to benefit from this.

Right now, Clinton is ahead by 2.0 percentage points in our national popular vote estimate. She's also ahead by 2.8 percentage points in Colorado, which is currently the tipping-point state -- the state that would give her just enough votes to win the Electoral College. That's a potential advantage for Clinton, but it requires the polls to be pretty much exactly on the mark.

By contrast, Clinton's position overall in swing state polls has not been especially good, in part because they tend to have a high proportion of white working-class voters -- Trump's best group. In particular, she's gotten some pretty awful numbers in Ohio, Iowa and Nevada lately, and her position in North Carolina seems to be worsening. If instead of treating Colorado as definitely being the tipping-point state, we instead weight the states by their probability of being the tipping-point state, Clinton's lead over Trump is 1.2 percentage points in the average swing state, less than her national margin and therefore a potential Electoral College disadvantage for her.

Basically, it's a question of whether you'd rather have pretty good polling in exactly enough states to win 270 electoral votes, at the cost of pretty bad polling in the swing states overall. Our models say that isn't a great trade-off for Clinton because having one good path leaves too little room for error. But this calculation is somewhat sensitive to our model's assumptions. At a minimum, it's another source of uncertainty.

7. How do the "fundamentals" look?

Non-polling factors such as economic conditions suggest that a race between a "generic" Democrat and a "generic" Republican ought to be close. In that sense, it shouldn't be hard to see how Trump could win. He either becomes normalized enough that he performs about the same as a generic Republican would, or he significantly underperforms a generic Republican but Clinton's problems are just as bad.


But all the Hilbots chose to ignore that report at the time...

It's time for the Democrats to dump their party leadership. Elitism, corporatism, the corrupt cronyism during the primaries, the ties to special interests.. they've all got to go if the Democrats ever want to be thought of in any serious conversation again.

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