In normal politics, the policies adopted by a president and Congress may zig one way, and those of the next president and Congress may zag the other. The contending parties take our system's rules as a given, and fight over what they understand to be reversible policies and power arrangements. But some situations are not like that; a zig one way makes it hard to zag back. This is one of those moments. read more
Over the past few weeks, FiveThirtyEight has explored who led in early primary polls of presidential cycles from 1972 to 2016 and who went on to win the nomination. And what we've seen is that national surveys conducted in the year before a presidential primary are relatively good indicators of which candidates will advance to the general election. We found that a candidate's adjusted polling average -- polling average divided by name recognition, which we delved into at length in the first two parts of this series -- is a decent proxy for teasing out the strength of a candidate, especially early in the election cycle. By accounting for how well known a candidate is, we can get a better read on the field in front of us, including here in the 2020 election cycle. As primary season draws nearer, we'll be keeping an eye on any candidates with low name recognition who still manage to win a significant chunk of support in the polls.
Munira Abdulla, who was aged 32 at the time of the accident, suffered a severe brain injury after the car she was travelling in collided with a bus on the way to pick up her son from school. Omar Webair, who was then just four years old, was sitting in the back of the vehicle with her, but was left unscathed as his mother cradled him in her arms moments before the accident. read more
Without workers being able to bargain for higher wages, inflation has stalled. While this might seem like a good thing, it weakens the economy and the buying power of workers. read more
Shortly after news emerged that Hillary Clinton had phoned Donald Trump to concede the presidential election early on November 9, 2016, the head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund received a message from New York: "Putin has won." The exchange recorded in Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report, in which the name of Kirill Dmitriev's contact has been redacted, captures the jubilation among Kremlin insiders over Trump's victory following what U.S. intelligence said was a campaign of Russian interference designed to help the underdog.