Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Sunday, July 07, 2019

Among registered voters, only Biden emerges with a clear advantage, leading Trump by 53 percent to 43 percent. Biden's lead over Trump is built in part on stronger support among independent voters and among self-identified moderates. He enjoys a seven-point edge among independents, while the other Democrats are even or trailing Trump with those voters. Among moderates, Biden has a 28-point advantage over the president, significantly more than any of the other Democrats tested.

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Trump's hardcore base includes 21 percent of registered voters who support him against any of the five possible Democratic challengers tested and who say it is "extremely important" that he be reelected. That rises to 31 percent when those who say it is "very important" that he win a second term are added to those solid Trump supporters.

Arrayed against Trump are 36 percent of registered voters who never support Trump in the matchups and say it is "extremely important" that the president not win a second term. That rises to 43 percent when those who say it is "very important" that Trump not be reelected are added to those consistent anti-Trump voters.

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"Trump receives between 38 percent and 42 percent support from women when matched against the five potential Democratic challengers. Even tested against a hypothetical candidate regarded as a socialist, he gets only 42 percent of support from women."

Uh, oh!

#1 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-07-07 11:05 AM | Reply

(This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone from June 28 through July 1 among a random national sample of 1,008 adults, with 65 percent reached on cellphones and 35 percent on landlines. Results from the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; the error margin is four points among the sample of 875 registered voters.)

#2 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-07-07 11:07 AM | Reply


From the cited article:

...METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS

This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and ABC News. The poll is a random sample of adults in the United States, with interviews in English and Spanish.

This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order as they appear in this document. Demographic questions are not shown. If a question was asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the group asked. Phrases surrounded by parentheticals within questions indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents.

A dual frame landline and cell phone telephone sample was generated using Random Digit Dialing procedures by Survey Sampling International (SSI). Interviewers called landlines and cellular phone numbers, first requesting to speak with the youngest adult male or female at home.

The final sample included 357 interviews completed on landlines and 651 interviews completed via cellular phones, including 459 interviews with adults in cell phone-only households.

This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples.

The overall adult sample is weighted to correct for differential probabilities of selection among individuals who are landline-only, cell phone-only or dual users.

Results are also weighted match the demographic makeup of the population by sex, region, age, education and race/ethnicity according to the latest Current Population Survey Social and Economic Supplement.

All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey's design effect, which is 1.4 for this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey's deviation from a simple random sample and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures.....


The poll looks good, but one thing needs to be kept in mind as you look as the results, and it is the big difficulty that pollsters face...

The polls results are from "registered voters."

This far out, that's probably not too much of an issue, but you really want to see poll results from "likely voters."

In 2016 the LA Times pollsters had a great article on that topic.


#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-07-07 11:37 AM | Reply

LAMP

I fully understand the difference ... However, it isn't a stretch to extrapolate the number of women who can't stand Trump to likely voters. I've seen other polls of likely voters where he loses women by an even larger percentage. If anything, that'll to be his undoing next year.

#4 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-07-07 07:41 PM | Reply

Where was Trump in the polls 16 months before the last election?

#5 | Posted by Karabekian at 2019-07-09 11:05 AM | Reply

Where was Trump in the polls 16 months before the last election?

Posted by Karabekian

That was when he was going to 'drain the swamp' and all of that. Americans could only project what a Trump presidency would be like. It was going to be amazing. The best ever! Hasn't turned out that way.

The 'swamp' is smellier since he took office. America has gotten a look at what a Trump presidency actually is like, and they don't like it.

#6 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-07-09 11:38 AM | Reply

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