Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Thursday, June 20, 2019

What Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale is responding to most immediately is Trump's inability to accept any reality in which he's unpopular -- the very same reason he can't admit that Russia intervened on his behalf in 2016 and Hillary Clinton trounced him in the popular vote. A "livid" Trump quickly fired the people who conducted a leaked 17-state internal poll for him that found he was sucking wind in some critical states.

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Too many notes.

#1 | Posted by Zed at 2019-06-20 07:47 AM | Reply | Funny: 2

Trump's only got 10 fingers for crying out loud. How can he be expected to understand all those big numbers?

#2 | Posted by kudzu at 2019-06-20 08:01 AM | Reply

A "livid" Trump quickly fired the people...
POSTED BY AMERICANUNITY

I'm sure he wishes he could be like his lover Kim and just have them executed.

#3 | Posted by TFDNihilist at 2019-06-20 09:27 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1


From the sited article:

..."The way turnout now works and the abilities that we have to turn out voters, the polling can't understand that, and that's why it was so wrong in 2016. It was 100 percent wrong. Nobody got it right. Not one public poll," Brad Parscale, Trump's campaign chief said. ...

The polls got the popular vote right. So they were not 100% wrong.

Where the polls ran into problems was using them to determine the Electoral College (EC) vote without also using the margin of error in the polls.

EC votes were assigned based upon the state polling data, without taking into account the margin of error in those polls. If the margin of error had been taken into account, the polls would have come up with a "too close to tell" for the EC vote.

But more to the reason why this is being brought up by the Trump campaign...

It is just a continuation of Pres Trump's attack on the media, extending the attack to anything that does not check him for polyps. If the current polling had shown Pres trump ahead by a good margin, I doubt we would even be reading about this.


#4 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-06-20 10:08 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1


Wow...

sited -> cited.

:)

#5 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-06-20 10:40 AM | Reply

Just like CNN said no one would show up at his rally.

#6 | Posted by fishpaw at 2019-06-20 10:56 AM | Reply

Just like CNN said no one would show up at his rally.

#6 | Posted by fishpaw

Let's see a link to that claim.

#7 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2019-06-20 11:08 AM | Reply

Polls this far out from the election are pretty much a waste of time.

#8 | Posted by MSgt at 2019-06-20 11:14 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

Polls this far out from the election are pretty much a waste of time.

#8 | Posted by MSgt at 2019-06-20 11:14 AM | Reply

Makes you wonder why it bothers Trump so much.

#9 | Posted by Zed at 2019-06-20 11:22 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Just like CNN said no one would show up at his rally.

#6 | Posted by fishpaw

Just like ABC said Trump drew less viewers in prime time than their "Good Morning America," or half the audience of Celebrity Family Feud.

At this point Trump is double digits underwater in the states whose 77,000 votes won him the EC; WI, MI, PA. -4 in OH and essentially even net approval GA & FL. Sucking wind at barely above even net approval in TX, ND, KS, and others.

+/- 1% MOE state by state tracking poll: morningconsult.com

#10 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-06-20 11:23 AM | Reply

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And since Trump is doing nothing to bring in new supporters to his right wing nationalist base, don't expect his approval to rise beyond where it's been stuck his entire presidency to this point.

Even a Wag The Dog war won't fool America.

#11 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-06-20 11:27 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

#10 | POSTED BY AMERICANUNITY

Keep clinging to your teddy bear polls.

#12 | Posted by SheepleSchism at 2019-06-20 11:28 AM | Reply

Let's see a link to that claim.
#7 | Posted by SpeakSoftly

You can't see inside his mind (lucky for you) and that's the only place that link exists.

#13 | Posted by SomebodyElse at 2019-06-20 11:33 AM | Reply

Even a Wag The Dog war won't fool America.

#11 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-06-20

A new war is going to piss people off.

#14 | Posted by Zed at 2019-06-20 11:34 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

In a June, 2015 poll of GOP presidential candidates, @realDonaldTrump was at 1%.

scontent.fhhr1-1.fna.fbcdn.net

#15 | Posted by MSgt at 2019-06-20 11:42 AM | Reply


@#8 ... Polls this far out from the election are pretty much a waste of time. ...

If you take them as an indication of what may happen on Election Day, I agree with you.

If you take them as an indication of what the opinion trends currently are, then they can be useful.

Campaigns move polls The pollsat the beginning of a campaign are not like the polls at the end of the campaign.
-- Stephanie Kelly (Aberdine Standard senior Political Analyst)

The polling at this point is essentially a means for the campaigns to decide where and how to concentrate their efforts to meet the goals they have set for voter turnout and voting in various areas.

#16 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-06-20 11:54 AM | Reply

the polls in '16 were right overall as reflected in the final vote tally

trumps internal polling was accurate enough that when manafort delivered those figures to the russians, they knew exactly which districts to target and swing the election in trumps favor.

the polling was so accurate that 77,000 votes counted more than 3,000,000

#17 | Posted by 1947steamer at 2019-06-20 12:11 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 9

"trumps internal polling was accurate enough that when manafort delivered those figures to the russians, they knew exactly which districts to target and swing the election in trumps favor"

Thanks for bringing this up.

I'm not going to forgive Trump and his people for this. No American should.

#18 | Posted by Zed at 2019-06-20 12:23 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

MSGT is correct. Everything is way too early to tell. Polling at this point wouldn't have had Trump in the top 5 as the GOP candidate if I recall.

#19 | Posted by GalaxiePete at 2019-06-20 12:30 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

In a June, 2015 poll of GOP presidential candidates, @realDonaldTrump was at 1%.
scontent.fhhr1-1.fna.fbcdn.net

#15 | POSTED BY MSGT

He's right about early polls for the wrong reason.

It's simply far too early to poll accurately about the general election.

Nate Silver and 538 agree. Here's an article from one of their writers/statistics gurus on it: fivethirtyeight.com

Aptly titled: "Should We Take These Early General Election Polls Seriously? $#!% No!"

#20 | Posted by Sycophant at 2019-06-20 01:25 PM | Reply

At this point Trump is double digits underwater in the states whose 77,000 votes won him the EC; WI, MI, PA. -4 in OH and essentially even net approval GA & FL. Sucking wind at barely above even net approval in TX, ND, KS, and others.

+/- 1% MOE state by state tracking poll: morningconsult.com

#10 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY

That's why his only option is to start a war with iran - exactly what he said obama would do to win an election.

#21 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2019-06-20 01:25 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

#8 ... Polls this far out from the election are pretty much a waste of time. ...

Nooooo... actually they are not.

"To put it another way, in open primaries where there is no incumbent since 1996, the candidate who went on to win their primary was in the top three of an aggregate of polls taken between November (post-election) and January (two years before the election) 7 out of 9 times."

www.cnn.com

"But here's a stubborn and surprising fact -- and one to keep in mind as midterm polls really start rolling in: Over the past two years -- meaning in the 2016 general election and then in the various gubernatorial elections and special elections that have taken place in 2017 and 2018 -- the accuracy of polls has been pretty much average by historical standards.

You read that right. Polls of the November 2016 presidential election were about as accurate as polls of presidential elections have been on average since 1972."

fivethirtyeight.com

Meme is dead.

#22 | Posted by Corky at 2019-06-20 02:03 PM | Reply

^

So they are usually dead wrong.

Got it.

#23 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2019-06-20 02:36 PM | Reply

MSGT is correct. Everything is way too early to tell. Polling at this point wouldn't have had Trump in the top 5 as the GOP candidate if I recall.

#19 | POSTED BY GALAXIEPETE

These polls now also reflect approval and disapproval of his job performance, which has never been above 50% in any poll but Rasmussen. He has been stuck in the high 30s to mid-40s his entire presidency and isn't doing anything to grow his voter base. With job approval numbers like he's had, getting re-elected will be a major uphill climb I personally doubt he can make.

#24 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-06-20 02:47 PM | Reply

Polls are screwed up by large number of candidates.

If you want a corporate sellout democrat, biden is your guy, so he gets 35%

If you want a real progressive champion of the working class, you get to pick between warren, sanders, and maybe a couple others. So that constituency is divided and they each only get like 20%.

But if you add up the anti establishment votes versus the establishment elite support, anti establishment is winning.

Biden only looks like he's winning because the no-sellout crowd is divided among several candidates at the moment. The entire narrative about his commanding lead is built around ignoring that fact.

#25 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2019-06-20 02:53 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

- Got it.

Lawyers sans comprehension missed it as per usual.

#26 | Posted by Corky at 2019-06-20 03:23 PM | Reply

So they are usually dead wrong.

#23 | POSTED BY FakeLawyer

You'd think someone who claims to be a lawyer would have better comprehension skills.

#27 | Posted by aborted_monson at 2019-06-20 03:29 PM | Reply

You'd think someone who claims to be a lawyer would have better comprehension skills.

#27 | Posted by aborted_monson

Someone who is actually a lawyer wouldn't spend every waking hour on this site.

Unless he lost his law license due to malpractice. Or his last name is Maytag.

#28 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-06-20 04:21 PM | Reply

"So they are usually dead wrong.
Got it."

If polls in general are usually dead wrong, shouldn't we abandon trial by jury?

#29 | Posted by snoofy at 2019-06-20 04:31 PM | Reply

The polls clearly prove one thing reliably.

Trump is a Liar.

#30 | Posted by donnerboy at 2019-06-22 11:45 AM | Reply

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