Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Saturday, December 08, 2018

What a difference a year makes for bitcoin. In December 2017, bitcoin prices hit a record high of just under $20,000. Flash forward to December 2018 and bitcoin is now trading a little below $3,400. That's a more than 80% plunge. Bitcoin is at a 15-month low. But prices have really gotten whacked this week, falling nearly 20% in just the past five days alone. Bitcoin isn't the only cryptocurrency getting hit either. Ripple/XRP, ethereum, stellar, litecoin and numerous other cryptocurrencies have plunged in the past week. Little tangible news can explain or justify the current crypto carnage. One possible reason is that a pro-crypto member of the Securities and Exchange Commission warned at a conference this week that she's fighting an uphill battle trying to convince the rest of the SEC to approve more bitcoin exchange traded funds.

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You'd have to be a sucker to stay invested in crypto currencies at this juncture. It is not just Bitcoins. It is all the crypto currencies.

#1 | Posted by moder8 at 2018-12-07 01:46 PM | Reply


@#1 ... to stay invested in crypto currencies ...

For me it never looked like an investment, but more of a casino-play.

Some people were lucky. Ever fewer were extremely lucky.

Too many started to play the game a year or so ago...


#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2018-12-07 02:41 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

@#2

Spoken with 20/20 hindsight, of course. :)

#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2018-12-07 02:42 PM | Reply

Remember when Amazon fell 95% from its all time high of $113 down to $6? Back when it was worth 1/300th of its current price.

You'd have to be a sucker to stay invested in Amazon through that /s

#4 | Posted by IndianaJones at 2018-12-07 02:54 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2


@#4 ...You'd have to be a sucker to stay invested in Amazon through that

Another 20/20 hindsight comment. :)

But at least amazon had something going for it during the lean years. I remember some people calling it amazon.org due to the lack of profit from its businesses.

#5 | Posted by LampLighter at 2018-12-07 03:49 PM | Reply

I wouldnt write crypto currencies off. I would keep an eye on them. The next big thing is going to come and it will be on block chain technology. Once it drops low enough, more buyers will come in, if nothing but to have a re-do of when bitcoin and others were new.

#6 | Posted by boaz at 2018-12-07 04:10 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

Will we be able to buy women and cans of beans with this currency? You know, like in your post apocalypse libertarian cartoon?

#7 | Posted by ChiefTutMoses at 2018-12-07 06:02 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

I had to pay a contractor who was working from Brazil. Going through the banks lost 25% for government and bank fees. We tried bitcoin and it was so easy. Lots of potential as a currency mechanism. Just have to move it in and out quickly if you want it as a predictable transfer.
The value boom was as Chinese population bought in to give government free transactions.
Probably a good time to buy in now.

#8 | Posted by Snowfake at 2018-12-07 06:11 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

I am architecting two blockchain projects now. They don't have coins. One is funded by Gov grant money the other is VC money. I was going to go with hyperledger but now it looks like Amazons block chain as a service is the better bet for now.

I would only trust coins backed by assets and first world banking. The rest are more risky than collectable plates.

#9 | Posted by bored at 2018-12-07 07:59 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

My blockchain colleagues all have stories of international money transfer runoffs. PayPal will be a better option than crypto coins, once PayPal gets transaction costs down and connects to more countries. That wont work for China though.

#10 | Posted by bored at 2018-12-07 08:02 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

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Your better off putting your cash into a video poker machine.

#11 | Posted by aborted_monson at 2018-12-07 08:05 PM | Reply

I bet you Paypal will be using some form of blockchain before it's all over. And there will be others.

Right now, I can send $100 of NYC in 2 seconds.

Let that sink in, 2 seconds.

#12 | Posted by boaz at 2018-12-07 08:17 PM | Reply

Right now, I can send $100 of NYC in 2 seconds.

Using what service?

#13 | Posted by ClownShack at 2018-12-07 08:21 PM | Reply


@#12 ... bet you Paypal will be using some form of blockchain before it's all over. And there will be others. ...

I agree.

However, blockchain is not Bitcoin, blockchain is a technology that Bitcoin uses.

The blockchain technology can be used for many other things.

For example: www.ibm.com

#14 | Posted by LampLighter at 2018-12-08 09:48 PM | Reply

#14 more evidence that even block chain is useless.

#15 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2018-12-08 11:03 PM | Reply


@#15 ... "what was your first's pet name" ...

One industry analysis group agrees with you...

Blockchain: What's it good for? Absolutely nothing, report finds
www.computerworld.com

...In a joint report for the Monitoring, Evaluation, Research and Learning (MERL) Technology conference this fall, researchers who studied 43 blockchain use cases came to the conclusion that all underdelivered on claims.

And, when they reached out to several blockchain providers about project results, the silence was deafening. "Not one was willing to share data," the researchers said in their blog post....


Take a look at Garner's Hype Cycle for new technologies in the article. Bitcoin is said to currently be in the trough of disillusionment, a place where many new technologies reside after the hype wears off and before practical use becomes more pronounced.


I do think there will be valid uses for blockchain in the future. It will fall into the background as the infrastructure used, and not be the main product.

#16 | Posted by LampLighter at 2018-12-09 10:49 AM | Reply

I am architecting two blockchain projects now. They don't have coins. One is funded by Gov grant money the other is VC money.

These are called spreadsheets, not blockchains.

#17 | Posted by Ben_Berkkake at 2018-12-09 03:18 PM | Reply

However, blockchain is not Bitcoin, blockchain is a technology that Bitcoin uses.

Blockchain without an incentive structure for third party mining of blocks is not a blockchain.

#18 | Posted by Ben_Berkkake at 2018-12-09 03:20 PM | Reply


@#18 ... Blockchain without an incentive structure for third party mining of blocks is not a blockchain. ...

I agree. The incentive does not need to be Bitcoin.

#19 | Posted by LampLighter at 2018-12-09 09:49 PM | Reply

I do think there will be valid uses for blockchain in the future. It will fall into the background as the infrastructure used, and not be the main product.

#16 | POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER AT 2018-12-09 10:49 AM | REPLY | FLAG:

If you can get your business on the block chain, then you don't need the block chain.

Say you wanted to talk your coffee beans to be sure they're grown sustainably. If everyone along the way is documenting the progress of the beans, then it's already done.

The same goes for anything else.

#20 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2018-12-09 11:34 PM | Reply

Blockchain uses insane amounts of energy. Hopefully that model dies and quickly.

#21 | Posted by dibblda at 2018-12-09 11:48 PM | Reply

#13 Venmo. Probably paypal too.

#22 | Posted by JOE at 2018-12-09 11:52 PM | Reply

If you can get your business on the block chain, then you don't need the block chain.

I believe the interest lay in a decentralized ledger system- but a good point is made in a comment upthread, differentiating between blockchain in bitcoin: anonymous 3rd party mining and verification, to how public and private sectors will display the technology: decentralized ledger keeping, but not anonymously mined and verified by random third parties.

#23 | Posted by GOnoles92 at 2018-12-10 12:31 AM | Reply

There have been reports of banks getting into blockchain development, but it is also now a hype word to use to seem "techy," so we'll see if anything by anyone eventually becomes public as a good use case.

#24 | Posted by GOnoles92 at 2018-12-10 12:33 AM | Reply

#20 Not exactly.
Secure ledgers are immutable which is valuable to those that want transaction appenders to be trustworthy.
A central database can be easily updated.
Requiring a consensus for append adds trust.
Allowing stakeholders to have a copy of the ledger adds trust.
Proof of work, doesn't.

pfrazee.github.io

#25 | Posted by bored at 2018-12-10 01:53 AM | Reply

Doesn't work*

#26 | Posted by bored at 2018-12-10 01:54 AM | Reply

Hey bitcoin investors, I have some real nice bridges for sale. Different lengths and types. They'd make a great investment.

#27 | Posted by aborted_monson at 2018-12-10 02:19 AM | Reply

A central database can be easily updated.
Requiring a consensus for append adds trust.
Allowing stakeholders to have a copy of the ledger adds trust.
Proof of work, doesn't.

You've literally just described Google Sheets.

A central database renders all "added trust" meaningless, and reintroduces the problems that bitcoin solves.

#28 | Posted by Ben_Berkkake at 2018-12-10 08:28 AM | Reply

#23 - Yes. Distributed, decentralized database. Like thousands of copies of the database distributed all over the world. Bored's link is really good. Thanks Bored.

I appreciated the list of questions:

Is it decentralized consensus you want, or just improved accountability and better trust?
Am I certain that I need strict global consensus?
Could I solve the ownership problem by using peer-to-peer publishing, e.g. with Dat?
Could I solve the choice problem with configurable endpoints?
Do I really need to burn all that energy to power my app?

(Plus seeing Symantec busted was a nice bonus)

This technology may turn out to be not nearly as useful or cool as initially thought, or it may be like the LASER, cool, fun, but what in the world is the point? Turns out you can do "a hell of a lot!" with a LASER.

#29 | Posted by YAV at 2018-12-10 08:47 AM | Reply

"I believe the interest lay in a decentralized ledger system"

Oh? Is a commonly available set of facts worth anything?

We're seeing that it's worthless.

#30 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2018-12-10 09:01 AM | Reply


Real estate blockchain set to go live in early '19
www.computerworld.com

...New York-based ShelterZoom is going live soon with its blockchain-based real estate offer-and-acceptance application; it's one of several ways companies are testing out the distributed ledger technology....


Also...

What is blockchain? The most disruptive tech in decades
www.computerworld.com

...The distributed ledger technology, better known as blockchain, has the potential to eliminate huge amounts of record-keeping, save money and disrupt IT in ways not seen since the internet arrived....

#31 | Posted by LampLighter at 2018-12-10 12:12 PM | Reply

"...New York-based ShelterZoom is going live soon with its blockchain-based real estate offer-and-acceptance application; it's one of several ways companies are testing out the distributed ledger technology...."

What if the sale goes through and then there is a mistake found in the sale? I understand that it is not reversible.

#32 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2018-12-10 12:37 PM | Reply

"The disconnect between the hype and the reality is significant -- I've never seen anything like it," said Rajesh Kandaswamy, an analyst at Gartner Inc. "In terms of actual production use, it's very rare."

www.bloomberg.com

#33 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2018-12-10 12:39 PM | Reply

I'm erring on the side of this thing being complete hype.

#34 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2018-12-10 12:40 PM | Reply


@#34 ... (And you're not supposed to reveal your clever reference in the first post) ...

I'm still taking a "wait and see" type of approach.

Some of the applications for blockchain seem worthwhile, but I remain to be convinced that blockchain is the proper solution for those problems.

It is going to take some successes and failures before blockchain can be properly evaluated.

As you note, the current hype level is off the charts, and that prevents any manner of reasonable cost/benefit (or even, does this thing work) type of analysis.

#35 | Posted by LampLighter at 2018-12-10 12:49 PM | Reply

@#35

oops, paste from a leftover cut in a different thread...

#36 | Posted by LampLighter at 2018-12-10 01:00 PM | Reply

I have a litmus test for this stuff: is it solving a problem that can't currently be solved? OR is it solving the problem in a better way than we are already doing it?

So far, the open ledger thing is as good as publishing your data and having it audited.

#37 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2018-12-10 01:09 PM | Reply

Bitcoin, the first Domino to fall.

MAGA

#38 | Posted by getoffmedz at 2018-12-10 02:35 PM | Reply

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