Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Tuesday, October 09, 2018

President Trump and his supporters say he is winning his trade war with Beijing. China is dealing with a mountain of debt, and its growth and investment are slowing down. No one knows how far Trump plans to go in pressuring China with hefty trade tariffs.

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Meanwhile, back in the real world, a HUGE problem is brewing if China is pushed to the brink. It's total debt far outpaces any other country in the world (total debt includes both government and corporate debt) and it is working to scale back the ambitions of its more debt ridden corporations.

Trump currently has an upper hand given the robust US economy in contrast to the shrinking Chinese economy, but pushing China too far could lead to war as China seeks to divert its people's attention away from their decreasing economic fortunes.

#1 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2018-10-09 05:42 PM | Reply

Easy answer it will be the 1 percent of the 1 percent, the super rich they always win

#2 | Posted by PunchyPossum at 2018-10-09 10:59 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Article written by idiots for idiots and posted by a mega-idiot.

SEMPER PIE!

#3 | Posted by J_Tremain at 2018-10-10 01:50 AM | Reply

My money is on the Chinese. History shows they marry their conquerors, teach them some manners, and turn them Chinese.

#4 | Posted by BluSky at 2018-10-10 03:35 AM | Reply

#1 China just relaxed its bank reserve requirements to stimulate smaller businesses.
People say China has a bicycle economy, it has to move forward or it will fall down.

China has grown more than any country in history, but I don't know if they are prepared for that to end.
There could be massive unrest or they could turn inward and transform their economy to be focused on domestic consumption.

China doesn't follow other peoples rules and now is the time to change that or China will be making the rules. I just hope Trump doesn't sell out the US.

#5 | Posted by bored at 2018-10-10 08:58 AM | Reply

There could be massive unrest or they could turn inward and transform their economy to be focused on domestic consumption.

Or they could double down on the Belt and Road Initiative... which is what they are doing.

#6 | Posted by J_Tremain at 2018-10-10 09:24 AM | Reply

Who Will Win the Trump-China Trade War?

Nobody. Everybody loses in a trade war.

#7 | Posted by JeffJ at 2018-10-10 10:16 AM | Reply

RoC is delusional. But this issue will play out the same way everything else has played out. Right wing ding bats will believe Trump won, no matter what the outcome of Trump's trade war yields and left wing dingbats will believe the opposite.

#8 | Posted by bayviking at 2018-10-10 10:47 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

RoC is posting from a historical perspective. Trade wars often lead to real war.

#9 | Posted by JeffJ at 2018-10-10 10:54 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

China is dealing with a mountain of debt,

With Dotard adding $1,000,000,000,000 per year to ours, we will catch up real soon.

#10 | Posted by 726 at 2018-10-10 11:19 AM | Reply

So, we should allow China to take advantage of our economy because we are afraid they might get mad about it if we do anything to protect our economy....just like they do, Japan does, S. Korea does, Germany does....etc. It would have been smarter to enact VAT like everyone else does but Trump could not do that without Congress. As it is, Trump is exceeding his authority, he is only supposed to be able to enact tariffs without Congress on things that affect national security. His tariffs on Canada, based on national security, are an insult to Canadians as Trudeau has said.

#11 | Posted by danni at 2018-10-10 11:20 AM | Reply

Easy answer it will be the 1 percent of the 1 percent, the super rich they always win

#2 | POSTED BY PUNCHYPOSSUM

Nobody. Everybody loses in a trade war.

#7 | POSTED BY JEFFJ

In a general sense, these are the correct answers. The super rich will probably come out fine. But who knows? Everyone else may eventually burn them at the stake.

#12 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2018-10-10 11:33 AM | Reply

Who will win?

There are two winners:
1. The rest of Asia as factories gear up production in other Asian countries to avoid tariffs.
2. The rest of the world as companies gear up production outside the US and China to avoid tariffs.

The are two losers:
China and the United States

Thanks, Trumpers.

#13 | Posted by Sycophant at 2018-10-10 11:34 AM | Reply

"2. The rest of the world as companies gear up production outside the US and China to avoid tariffs.
The are two losers:"

Their goods can be subject to tariffs too. I would hesitate to build a factory to manufacture goods intended to be exported to the U.S. right now. You might end up owning a factory with no customers. Idea! Build it in Alabama.

#14 | Posted by danni at 2018-10-10 11:56 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

What fight is for fair trade practices. It's not a war and it's not about winning. It's about China treating us fairly. They've never had to do so in the past until a President came along and tackled the issue. Like all Presidents, they can only do so much and what they aren't paying attention to can suffer. Either way, this is a topic Trump wanted to tackle so until China agrees to playing fairly with us, the fight will continue. Neither side is winning or losing, they are being forced to compromise. The problem is so many people think compromise has to be about winning or losing.

#15 | Posted by humtake at 2018-10-10 12:01 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

"It's about China treating us fairly"

there you have it
from the party of "personal responsibility" no less

can you provide some examples of how "china' has made you their victim?

#16 | Posted by ChiefTutMoses at 2018-10-10 12:35 PM | Reply

RoC is delusional.

Not at all, in fact, I had a lot of backup for those of you that never read the article (but the Drudgelord, in his wisdom, removed it when he promoted the article to the front page) that supports the point:

No one is quite sure how far Trump plans to go in pressuring China with hefty trade tariffs. One analysis late last month by the Australia-based ANZ Bank predicted the warfare will last until 2020 because the two sides are so far apart.

Some analysts think the real U.S. objective is a gradual "decoupling" of the world's two biggest economies, hitherto deeply entwined and interdependent. The U.S. government has blocked investments by several prominent Chinese companies as threats to American security, and Chinese investment in the U.S. economy has plummeted.

One interpretation popular in China is that the economic conflict is all about "containing" its rise as a high-tech global leader. The longer the warfare continues, the more uncertain its outcome, as both sides ratchet up pressure in ways designed to antagonize.

China's economy is slowing and may slow down further, analysts warn. But it has nothing to do, they say, with Trump or the trade war. Instead, it is related to Chinese government policies since 2016 to bring the country's mountain of debt under control.

For years, Chinese growth was fueled by credit, some of it issued by murky institutions known as "shadow banks" because they operated outside the formal banking sector, making it difficult for the government to control. Between 2008 and 2017, China's credit grew faster than that of any other economy in history: by $29 trillion, compared with gross domestic product growth of $7 trillion.

It seemed the normal rules of boom and bust did not apply. By mid-2017, China's debt reached 256% of GDP. Chinese GDP growth eased from 6.8% in the first quarter to 6.7% in the second, and it is expected to slow further in coming months. Spending on infrastructure was 6% in the first half, compared with 8.6% the previous year.

"It is not U.S. trade pressure that is bringing about this reckoning in its economic outlook. That's very important because it means that China must change its course regardless of whether what we do here in Washington is naughty or nice," said China economic analyst Daniel Rosen.

Is China's economy in danger of a major shock because of the debt mountain?

China has recognized the problem and begun to restructure its economy. Report co-author Logan Wright argues that China cannot grow its way out of the problem. A slowdown is inevitable -- and the risk of some kind of financial shock is real.

Some believe that the Trump administration is pushing China hard right now because of its economic vulnerability, seeing an opportunity to back it into a corner and slow China's rise.

JP Morgan chief China economist Zhu Haibin predicted last month that the trade war would cost China 700,000 jobs as companies move factories out, independent online financial news site Caixin reported.

More-

#17 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2018-10-10 12:51 PM | Reply

Continued:

Trump seems so confident of victory in the trade war that there is little likelihood he will ease back on pressure. He told reporters Monday that China badly wanted new trade talks, but that "frankly it's too early to talk ... because they're not ready."

But the problem with trade wars that drag on is that they have a way of souring entire relationships. Good trade relations can mitigate military friction.

"Both China and the U.S. -- and their leaders -- currently seem committed to economic and security policies that will increase the tension between them, heighten the cost and scale of their de facto arms race, and at least marginally increase the risk of incidents, clashes, or more serious conflict," military analyst Anthony Cordesman, former director of intelligence assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, wrote in an analysis for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He compared the U.S.-China competition to the arms race pursued by Britain and Germany in the lead-up to World War I, setting the stage for last century's two most devastating wars.

"Each is pursuing policies that are broadening the range of technologies and forces it can use against the other. Each is adjusting its strategic posture to put more emphasis on containment and conflict. Each is effectively attempting to ‘win' the future at the other's expense," he wrote.

As relations worsen, he continued, "it is becoming steadily harder to distinguish between efforts designed to limit or contain the other state and those that might lead to actual conflict."

The dangers are very real in this particular trade clash, it is about more than ensuring a continued flow of cheap stuff at Walmart.

#18 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2018-10-10 12:54 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Sorry for the long cut and paste, but the article is behind a paywall.

#19 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2018-10-10 12:56 PM | Reply

Sorry for the long cut and paste

No, you are not sorry.

but the article is behind a paywall.

No it's not.

See?

screenshotscdn.firefoxusercontent.com

Lie much?

#20 | Posted by J_Tremain at 2018-10-10 01:05 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

So you took someone's intellectual property against their wishes and gave it to your cronies.
Are you from China?

#21 | Posted by bored at 2018-10-10 01:11 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

#21

Well deserved NW and FF.

现在吹我

#22 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2018-10-10 01:14 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

I think the rest of the world needs to insist China trades fairly. Now is the time to make that happen.

I worry that China will offer a concession that Trump will tout as a victory to his base and then ignore China's unfair practices.

It was good to trade with China when they were poor to reduce the risk of war and alleviate poverty. China is no longer poor.

Tariffs will not bring back USA jobs in their own, but they may get China to trade fairly and reduce the erosion of USA power.

#23 | Posted by bored at 2018-10-10 01:18 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

--Lie much?

If you have already read your allotment of LA times articles for the month, it's behind a paywall.

#24 | Posted by nullifidian at 2018-10-10 01:19 PM | Reply

China will eventually bow; Trump knows this, and will not relent.

On this one issue, I agree with Trump.

The pain will be short lived; the long-term gain is a game changer for US trade.

#25 | Posted by SheepleSchism at 2018-10-10 02:13 PM | Reply

Both sides will lose. But China more than the US. And really nothing good nor lasting will have been achieved.

#26 | Posted by moder8 at 2018-10-10 02:18 PM | Reply

--Lie much?

I'm guessing that came from one of my plonked ankle biters, who don't understand the concept of subscription based news.

#27 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2018-10-10 02:24 PM | Reply

#23

I think this hits the nail on the head, 20 years ago when Clinton bestowed MFN status on China it was mostly a 2nd world country and now it has awakened, with disastrous consequences for our manufacturing base.

Hopefully Lighthizer and his team don't make or take the concessions that are ultimately meaningless. This is a completely different ball game than tweaking NAFTA to create the USMCA, this will be a hard fought negotiation on both sides.

#28 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2018-10-10 02:29 PM | Reply

can you whiney "experts" provide some examples of how "china' has made you their little bitch?

#29 | Posted by ChiefTutMoses at 2018-10-10 03:00 PM | Reply

In the first eight months of 2018, China's exports to the US were $344.7 billion. This is up by $25.4 billion from $319.3 billion in the first eight months of 2017.

#30 | Posted by bayviking at 2018-10-10 03:42 PM | Reply

In the first eight months of 2018, China's exports to the US were $344.7 billion. This is up by $25.4 billion from $319.3 billion in the first eight months of 2017.

Not surprising considering everyone knew the tariffs were coming.

#31 | Posted by horstngraben at 2018-10-10 03:59 PM | Reply

Their goods can be subject to tariffs too.
#14 | POSTED BY DANNI

But they aren't. And won't be.

#32 | Posted by Sycophant at 2018-10-10 05:22 PM | Reply

What fight is for fair trade practices. It's not a war and it's not about winning. It's about China treating us fairly. They've never had to do so in the past until a President came along and tackled the issue. Like all Presidents, they can only do so much and what they aren't paying attention to can suffer. Either way, this is a topic Trump wanted to tackle so until China agrees to playing fairly with us, the fight will continue. Neither side is winning or losing, they are being forced to compromise. The problem is so many people think compromise has to be about winning or losing.

#15 | POSTED BY HUMTAKE

Yep. And this doesn't change it. No one is compromising or even really negotiating. We are hurting our own markets and costing ourselves jobs though.

Great Job!

#33 | Posted by Sycophant at 2018-10-10 05:27 PM | Reply

"It's not a war and it's not about winning."

So much winning!

#34 | Posted by snoofy at 2018-10-10 05:32 PM | Reply

Neither side is winning or losing, they are being forced to compromise. The problem is so many people think compromise has to be about winning or losing.
#15 | POSTED BY HUMTAKE

The stock market says you are an idiot today. No one wins in war anymore. We all lose a little. Some more that others. And yes it is war. Economic war.

I hope you own stocks. Your stock value just decreased by 3%. Your 401K just lost 3%.

Billions of dollars just went POOF!

Winning!

#35 | Posted by donnerboy at 2018-10-10 05:35 PM | Reply

China has nukes 3 generations of conscripted education and military service. Manufacturing superiority, with a looooooong history techno superiority and a population functioning as a collective familiar with austerity.Yanks are drug addled , too fat for military religious zealots represented by a mouthy reality tv show egoist, famous for its exploitation of greed. Seems we've already lost.

#36 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2018-10-11 10:22 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

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