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Sunday, September 09, 2018

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is expected to become a hurricane tonight, and rapid intensification is likely to begin on Sunday. Florence could become a major hurricane by Monday.

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The Atlantic Basin is getting busy.

#1 | Posted by REDIAL at 2018-09-08 10:29 PM | Reply

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Three TSs all slated to strengthen to hurricanes.

One forecasted to hit the Carolinas as a major hurricane.

The other staying south and entering the Caribbean and then who knows what.

Could be an interested few weeks.

#2 | Posted by jpw at 2018-09-08 10:46 PM | Reply


Florence could be bad, very bad.

If it continues as currently forecast, it will hit, as a Cat 3, shoreline that has not seen a major hurricane in many years.

#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2018-09-09 10:54 AM | Reply

They are saying it could get to me as a cat 2 still.

I've done the no power NC summer post hurricane before and have no need to repeat the experience thanks very much Florence.

#4 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2018-09-09 11:07 AM | Reply

Cat 1 this morning.

#5 | Posted by REDIAL at 2018-09-09 11:08 AM | Reply


By Monday evening, there should be a better handle on the what and where. Three or four days out, there's still some uncertainty even though the models are beginning to converge.

#6 | Posted by LampLighter at 2018-09-09 11:12 AM | Reply

Florence should reform? Darn right she should reform.

Listen, I'm all for reform. But let's do it the right way. You can't just lower her taxes and call that reform. No sir.

I say we get her to a dang mental hospital (one that treats hurricanes, duh) and see if we can address her behavioral issues!

#7 | Posted by cbob at 2018-09-09 11:31 AM | Reply

I would like to apologize for the previous post. ;)

Just being silly. I know it's serious business. I love the Carolinas, and my wife and I have even talked about moving to either one. Beautiful country, lots of history, and the beaches are great. But I would be a nervous wreck every hurricane season.

As it is, I'm in Kentucky, where the remnants of Gordon dumped 5-10 inches of rain on us the past few days. A cab driver here in Louisville drowned when his car was swallowed up by flood waters last night. What a terrible way to go.

#8 | Posted by cbob at 2018-09-09 11:37 AM | Reply

No worries about the joke Cbob us Carolinians took it in stride.

Heck we even named our hockey team after this dumb season.

But yeah if you move here don't move to the coast. Raleigh is nice 2 hours to the beach 3 hours to the mountains. Big city amenities small town feel.

#9 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2018-09-09 11:47 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

Looks like Barron Trump found Dick Chenys weather machine.

#10 | Posted by HanoverFist at 2018-09-09 12:20 PM | Reply

But yeah if you move here don't move to the coast. Raleigh is nice 2 hours to the beach 3 hours to the mountains. Big city amenities small town feel.

#9 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2018-09-09 11:47 AM | Reply | Flag:

I happened to stop in Asheville on my way to Charleston a few years back and was quite captivated. So our next destination was Asheville itself! Stayed at the Grove Park Inn -- what a beautiful place. And the downtown was quite lively.

I've since learned what a heavy tourist/retiree attraction that area is. Understandably so. The Research Triangle holds appeal as well. Anyplace with all those universities will have a large number of educated people and the arts, healthcare and other amenities that usually accompany that!

#11 | Posted by cbob at 2018-09-09 02:39 PM | Reply


6pm forecast is showing CAT 4 (140mph) hitting the coast near North/South Carolina border.

This is bad. Very, very bad.

We're going to need to help these people.

#12 | Posted by LampLighter at 2018-09-09 06:06 PM | Reply

The winds can do a lot of damage, but it's often the rain that's as big or a bigger concern.

The National Weather Service out of Louisville said the computer models are suggesting that once Florence moves ashore, there will be no steering mechanisms to move the storm out. "The remnants may actually remain rather stationary over the Mid-Atlantic. If this scenario pans out, this will be a life threatening, if not historic, flash flood event" from the Carolinas northward into Virginia by next weekend.

Words you never want to hear: "Historic flash flood event." Good luck to all.

#13 | Posted by cbob at 2018-09-09 06:19 PM | Reply

Yeah I was just looking at some models. Looks like it will hit around Shallotte NC which would be REALLY REALLY BAD that area is pretty much at sea level up to 50 miles inland and the cape fear river basin runs through there so we could be talking massive flooding. Most of the rainfall models I am seeing has the rain all farther north so not sure if they are working off two different models or all the rain is on the north side of Florence.

They are showing me in the 5.5-7" area with North Eastern NC, Eastern VA and the Chesapeake Bay area all in the 10+ range so just a whole lot of ugly.

I bought 5 more gallons of water to add to my stock pile and I think will pick up 5 more gallons a day till it hits which should set me up fine. I have a gas stove so no power isn't a problem food wise. I tanked up my minivan today and it doesn't get driven much and I'll tank up my car on the way home from work wed. All laundry will be washed wed. night and then we'll hunker down and hope. Doubt you will see much posting by me from after Thursday.

#14 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2018-09-09 07:05 PM | Reply


@#14 ... They are showing me in the 5.5-7" area with North Eastern NC, Eastern VA and the Chesapeake Bay area all in the 10+ range so just a whole lot of ugly. ...

There is a weak indicator for 20+ inches of rain.

#15 | Posted by LampLighter at 2018-09-09 07:27 PM | Reply

#14 I'm 35 minutes north of Raleigh, I'm a volunteer firefighter/first responder. We were just notified that we are to prepare our emergency response protocol stating Tuesday. It should be interesting.

#16 | Posted by autonomous at 2018-09-09 07:33 PM | Reply

So that puts you around creedmore? You are in about the same rain fall estimates as us maybe a tick more. However you might get a bit less wind.

Tuesday seems early to be on alert but I guess better safe than sorry.

Thanks for your work as an emergency responder. Good luck and stay safe (as safe as you can that is)

#17 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2018-09-09 07:52 PM | Reply

Thank you. We're just going to check rescue gear, start and refuel all the generators, chainsaws, etc. Just make sure we're ready.

#18 | Posted by autonomous at 2018-09-09 07:58 PM | Reply

Chesapeake here. I was scheduled to go out on the Bush from the 16th to the 26th, but she pulled out today, so that ship has sailed...as it were. I wonder if we'll dead-stick any ships upriver to the Norfolk Naval Shipyard. We've done it before to protect them.

My home is far enough inland that I expect to see a lot of flooded roads and some downed trees, but probably no structural damage to buildings.

Stay safe out there Hampton Roads (and everyone else) folks.

#19 | Posted by Avigdore at 2018-09-10 12:40 PM | Reply

My middle son lives in Raleigh. We've been talking about protocol. He's sued to it, been through this stuff all his life growing up on the gulf coast.

This is shaping up to be really bad. Take care everyone. Prepare now, better to have and not need rather than to need and not have.

#20 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2018-09-10 01:15 PM | Reply

The latest updates don't offer even a hint of hope of avoiding disaster. It's almost certain to be the strongest hurricane to ever strike North Carolina -- and is now projected to still be at hurricane status some 200 miles inland!

#21 | Posted by cbob at 2018-09-10 01:26 PM | Reply

In line at the store now they got a new shipment of water at 5. I feel like half the city is here and literally every cart has water.

#22 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2018-09-10 05:50 PM | Reply

Tao, do you have a generator? Life gets miserable fast without power. We lost power for a week with Hurricane Ike in the fall 2008, and another week from an ice storm in January 2009, and while it was still no fun, because of my portable generator we were able to keep the lights and TV and computer and fridge running (and furnace in the winter). Showers were unbearably cold though!

#23 | Posted by cbob at 2018-09-10 08:30 PM | Reply

If we put it in an anger management class maybe it will reform as a light shower

#24 | Posted by hatter5183 at 2018-09-10 09:24 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

If we put it in an anger management class maybe it will reform as a light shower

I assume Boaz will just meet it on the beach and beat it to death with his dick.

That's how real men handle things.

#25 | Posted by REDIAL at 2018-09-10 09:28 PM | Reply | Funny: 7

I assume Boaz will just meet it on the beach and beat it to death with his dick.

Okay. This is hilarious.

Thanks for the laugh.

😂🤣😅

#26 | Posted by ClownShack at 2018-09-10 09:31 PM | Reply

#23

No genny but I get my feed from high tension lines that run by my house. So power loss of more than 48 hours would be a shock. Since they switched my feed from the front of the neighborhood to the high tension lines we have lost power no more than 12 hours total and that was about 7 years ago.

The cul-de-sac I live on all gets their feed from there and every time there is power outages we end up storing food etc. for the neighbors. I'll be interested to see what happens with internet last time there was a major storm we had TWC and got the feed from the front of the neighborhood so we had power but not internet. Now we have Google Fiber which has underground lines so it is entirely possible that we will have power and internet while the rest of the city burns. Of course we also have cell phones with unlimited data so even with no power and no internet we will still have connectivity as long as one of the 4 cell towers around us is live.

Just realized this morning that of all thing we are almost out of TP I buy the 27 count packs so not something that was on my hurricane list but looks like one more store run is in order.

#25

To avoid a hurricane I'll drive him down there and even add my tiny help to his efforts.

#27 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2018-09-11 07:21 AM | Reply

Florance sucked up a lot of dry air and Saharan dust last night and continues to do so. Nevertheless, even as a big tropical depression this storm is a huge rain-maker.

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

The disturbance between Cuba and the Yucatan is troubling as well as the new African tropical waves.

#28 | Posted by getoffmedz at 2018-09-11 10:25 AM | Reply

"6pm forecast is showing CAT 4 (140mph) hitting the coast near North/South Carolina border."

I have family in Myrtle Beach and friends near Little River. Get out, get out, get out!!!

#29 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2018-09-11 10:36 AM | Reply

So looks like Boaz and My dick waving was effective. Florence is too afraid to come very far inland in NC and instead is going to clobber SC.

Sorry guys.

#30 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2018-09-12 06:17 AM | Reply

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