Latinos Could Decide California Governor's Race

Friday, February 09, 2018

Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom shouldn't be called the front-runner anymore in the race for California governor. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has essentially caught up. "It's a virtual toss," says Mark Baldassare, president and pollster of the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. Newsom's once significant lead over fellow Democrat Villaraigosa has slowly eroded and the two are now statistically tied, based on a new PPIC poll of likely voters. How'd that happen? Latinos are flocking to Villaraigosa, the poll shows. And this could be the year that Latinos actually vote in powerful numbers, inspired by their disdain of President Trump's rants about illegal immigration.

Posted by leftcoastlawyer at 10:32 AM | 18 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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A PPIC poll in November also showed upward movement for Villaraigosa. He trailed Newsom then by five percentage points. Since that time, the former L.A. mayor and state Assembly speaker has picked up three points while Newsom has stood still.

Bay Area voters have been turning out for elections more reliably than Angelenos. And Latinos, regardless of their growing population numbers, have basically been no-shows at the ballot box. Villaraigosa's fate depends on his ability to turn out L.A. and Latino voters.

"If in any year Latinos are going to vote, this is the year," says Roger Salazar, a Democratic political consultant who's not involved in the gubernatorial campaign.

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I soured on Newsom when he was our Mayor, I hope that Villaraigosa makes the top two, mostly because that will help State and House races across the State with a huge Latino turnout.

#1 | Posted by leftcoastlawyer at 2018-02-08 05:07 PM | Reply

And in other shocking, never before known news...oranges are orange.

#2 | Posted by humtake at 2018-02-09 12:16 PM | Reply

Gavin Newsom in most ways is cut from the same cloth as Jerry Brown. He is the scion of a long established wealthy Bay Area family going back more than one hundred years. He is at the vanguard of American leftwing politics. There is almost a sense of entitlement to his election. Funny thing is, as much as I dislike his sense of entitlement, I do like his politics and I will be voting for him.

#3 | Posted by moder8 at 2018-02-09 12:36 PM | Reply

Actually, Latinos historically have not voted in the numbers that reflect their near majority status in the State of California (Latino is the largest ethic group in CA since 2014 but if you remove illegal residents who can't vote, whites still have a slight advantage.) Villaraigosa running could change that, helping fellow Latino candidates up and down the State.

A strong turnout could help Kevin De Leon in his run against Feinstein, who is now the overwhelming favorite of California GOP voters given that he is the only viable option. In an interesting twist, many Latino activists are starting to see the Democratic Party as standing in their way to higher office, and the numbers of Latinos running as Republicans for office in CA, while still low, has tripled this election cycle.

California's top Latino candidates face a tougher enemy than Trump: Fellow Democrats

#4 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2018-02-09 12:50 PM | Reply

For the same reasons you like Newbeam, I like Villaraigosa, since I think he is cut from the same fiscal "conservative" cloth as Brown ultimately became, and should continue Brown's fiscal policies in Excremento.

#5 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2018-02-09 12:56 PM | Reply

Newsome thinks it's cool to date teenagers when you're in your 30's.

Shades of Moore.

Go Villaraigosa.

#6 | Posted by Tor at 2018-02-09 08:57 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Excellent! In a couple of decades the hispanics will become the largest percentage of the CA population/voters and they will finally be able to elect the majority of the officials in the state [i.e. hispanic delegates] in which case I believe that CA will greatly benefit from the dems becoming minimized in their own state.

#7 | Posted by MSgt at 2018-02-10 12:53 AM | Reply

Dream on. California will always be governed by the incredibly rich people who can afford to live there in positions of influence.

#8 | Posted by REDIAL at 2018-02-10 01:07 AM | Reply

#7 | POSTED BY MSGT

What makes you think hispanics will only vote for hispanic politicians?

#9 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2018-02-10 01:16 AM | Reply

... in Excremento.

#5 | POSTED BY RIGHTOCENTER

Is that near Mar-a-Lago?

#10 | Posted by PinchALoaf at 2018-02-10 01:47 AM | Reply

The word 'latino' is sexist. Latinx.

#11 | Posted by visitor_ at 2018-02-10 08:46 AM | Reply

The word 'latino' is sexist. Latinx.
#11 | POSTED BY VISITOR_

You are confused. But that's understandable, since you're a gringo.

The 'latinos' don't find it sexist at all. Their machismo wouldn't allow it!

The 'latinas,' however, would definitely be interested in the Latinx evolution.

#12 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2018-02-10 04:04 PM | Reply

duh really... any wonder why dems support open borders?

#13 | Posted by kwrx25 at 2018-02-10 08:09 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

#13 what an ignorant statement, maybe Villaraigosa is the most qualified . You know, like Palin.

Here in Arizona we had a governor named....wait for it.

Raul Castro.

#14 | Posted by bruceaz at 2018-02-10 08:32 PM | Reply

#13 ignorant newsworthy also.

#15 | Posted by bruceaz at 2018-02-10 08:53 PM | Reply

duh really... any wonder why dems support open borders?

#13 | Posted by kwrx25 at 2018-02-10 08:09 PM | Reply | Flag:

Republicans also love open borders too they just aren't honest about it is all.

#16 | Posted by LauraMohr at 2018-02-10 10:31 PM | Reply

I always love the Adam Smithers. They love the first part but ignore the part about the free movement of labor.

Years ago the border was kinda open. People could go home to visit their families for the holidays and know they could come back to their jobs. Now there's coyotes that may rape you or leave you in the desert to die or hold you for ransom til your relatives pay up. I don't see progress.

Nobody smokes Mexican weed anymore, Crystal is local and heroin makes you part of the program.

I love my Hispanic neighbors

#17 | Posted by bruceaz at 2018-02-10 11:03 PM | Reply

(Latino is the largest ethic group in CA since 2014 but if you remove illegal residents who can't vote, whites still have a slight advantage.)

Just to clarify, this is White, Non-Latino vs. Latino of all races?

I like how we're so racist Federal law requires us to have to differentiate between race and ethnicity.

#18 | Posted by snoofy at 2018-02-10 11:36 PM | Reply