Monday, February 05, 2018

The coming US-China war?

Recently, there has been much talk of something called the Thucydides Trap. Named after the Greek historian who analysed the causes of the 30-year Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens that devastated Greece 2,500 years ago, the theory explains why the conflict began . According to Thucydides, Athens had witnessed a recent flowering of its arts, economy and military power, growing more confident as a result. Sparta, the pre-eminent power in Greece, felt threatened by the rise of Athens, and both states formed alliances to bolster their defences. When two of these allies went to war, both Sparta and Athens were sucked into the conflict.

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The First World War had similar beginnings: when Germany embarked on a major military expansion programme that included building a large fleet of battleships, Britain feared that its far-flung empire would be threatened. This led it into a network of alliances in Europe that was then countered by Germany. Once these allies went to war, Germany and Britain felt obliged to join in. Four years of bloodshed later, Europe was devastated, its treasure drained, and the flower of a generation buried in killing fields from France to Russia.

In today's context, the Thucydides Trap is relevant to China's rise, and resulting American insecurity. But as Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, recognises, this can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. In a speech in the US a couple of years, ago he said:

"There is no such thing as the so-called Thucydides Trap in the world. But should major countries time and again make the mistakes of strategic miscalculation, they might create traps for themselves."

Academics analysing data from the rise of challenges to the status quo over the last five centuries have concluded that out of 16, four were peacefully resolved while 12 caused wars. So the odds on hostilities breaking out between China and the US are depressingly high at 4-1.

Comments

The odds on hostilities breaking out between China and the US are depressingly high at 4-1.

Luckily, China is a cautious power that has tried to tread a fine line between openly challenging America, and asserting itself in the region.

Meanwhile, Washington has built military bases around China and engaged in alliance-building from India to Australia to hamstring Beijing. It will take tact and diplomacy to overcome existing tensions, but there is little evidence of either in today's White House.

#1 | Posted by J_Tremain at 2018-02-05 03:01 AM

What a BS article

#2 | Posted by crassus at 2018-02-05 03:24 AM

I love you China! I love you so much MWAH MWAH I kiss you! China China Oh China your so great, every thing glorious comes from China and everyone in China lives free and the government is honest and loving.

You stinking Americans I hate you, I hate you I hate you!
everything evil comes from America!

J TREMAIN Texas USA

#3 | Posted by PunchyPossum at 2018-02-05 03:34 AM

What a BS article

What a BS comment.

I love you China! I love you so much MWAH MWAH I kiss you!

Dude. If I was THAT obnoxious, I would've got an OSCAR by now.

#4 | Posted by J_Tremain at 2018-02-05 04:01 AM

There's no chance of war between America and China.

There's no benefit for China to start a war they don't know if they could win and there's no easy victories for America, which is why North Korea exists.

I know war technologies have improved on both sides. But a war between America and China would be long, expensive, destructive, and have many casualties on both sides. Both countries would end up weaker as a result.

#5 | Posted by ClownShack at 2018-02-05 04:33 AM

CLOWN

"There is no chance of war between America and China."

Then I have to wonder why the subject was even mentioned.

Oh, never mind. I just looked at the source. ~ LOL

It's a retaliatory hit piece from Pakistan's mouthpiece ("Dawn') and here's the reason why ~~

January, 2017

"The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit," Trump tweeted on January 1. "They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!"

It quickly became clear that Trump's tweet was more than an idle threat. On Thursday the State Department announced that the US was freezing most military aid to Pakistan. The administration has declined to specify the exact amount of funds it will cut off, but the suspension could freeze up to $1.3 billion in aid."

#6 | Posted by Twinpac at 2018-02-05 06:47 AM

MADAME

This article is about the "Thucydides Trap", not about Pakistan. The "Thucydides Trap" is a real concern for military strategists and is not something that ever comes up for discussion in YOUR line of business.

Ignored.

The administration has declined to specify the exact amount of funds it will cut off, but the suspension could freeze up to $1.3 billion in aid.

Pakistan told the US to keep their peanuts. None of it was "aid" anyway. It was BRIBES that Pakistan payed to the taliban on America's behalf. The taliban do not accept "infidel money" unless it comes through a Muslim country.

As the money got cut off, 200 Afghans died in at least 3 attacks last month. A new high... as predicted.

BUT.. someone in YOUR line of business is not qualified to get that.

Ignored. Again.

#7 | Posted by J_Tremain at 2018-02-05 07:13 AM

Now then... do I think there will be a China vs US war?

Nope.

Even a moron can see that China can create fake islands on a whim while the American leadership (and his family) can't even pretend to be fake patriots.

No contest. Hence no war.

And if people think, it'll be OK.... we'll have better leadership in 4 years (or 8).... hell no. Imagine Omorossa as POTUS..... the way we're electing clowns, why not?

#8 | Posted by J_Tremain at 2018-02-05 07:18 AM

CRASSUS

"What a BS article"

It's all of that and much more.

But it did give Tremain an opportunity to educate us with his vast knowledge of ancient history and thus demonstrate once again that ----- are superior to all other humans inhabiting the planet ~ in spite of the fact that third world nations such as Pakistan are wholly dependent on the largess of more successful nations who have the power to decide their fate.

Is anybody else getting that feeling of de ja vu?

Haven't we been down this road before with the same results?" ~ LOL

#9 | Posted by Twinpac at 2018-02-05 07:53 AM

more successful nations who have the power to decide their fate

Like Russia now decides the fate of American politics? hahahahahahahahaha!!!

#10 | Posted by J_Tremain at 2018-02-05 08:24 AM

TREMAIN

Let us know when the G-20 lets Pakistan peek through a crack in the door when India enters the conference rooms.

Or maybe they can eavesdrop on a conversation in the lavatory during a comfort break.

#11 | Posted by Twinpac at 2018-02-05 08:39 AM

screenshots.firefox.com

OOPS!

#12 | Posted by J_Tremain at 2018-02-05 08:40 AM

A comic book cartoon? That's your case? OOPS is right!

#13 | Posted by Twinpac at 2018-02-05 09:14 AM

He's not making a case. He's just laughing at you.

#14 | Posted by tonytripoli at 2018-02-05 10:00 AM

We can't go to war with China; who'd make all our Wal-Mart junk?

#15 | Posted by shane at 2018-02-05 01:34 PM

He's not making a case. He's just laughing at you.

#14 | POSTED BY TONYTRIPOLI AT 2018-02-05 10:00 AM

Looks like JTosseRigelMain's name will need some tweaking:

JTonyTosseRigelTripoliMain?

TonyTosserTriopliJRigelMain?

EndlessNamedPakiDork?

So many different choices...

#16 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2018-02-05 05:14 PM

Pakistan told the US to keep their peanuts. None of it was "aid" anyway. It was BRIBES that Pakistan payed to the taliban on America's behalf. The taliban do not accept "infidel money" unless it comes through a Muslim country.

33 Billion "peanuts" since 2002 to be exact, JTonyTosseRigelTripoliMain is just pissed that it is ending:

The United States has provided Pakistan more than $33 billion in aid since 2002. But the annual funding has declined in recent years as Washington became increasingly disenchanted with Pakistan's quiet support for the Haqqani network and the Taliban, whose attacks have been responsible for the deaths of American troops in Afghanistan.

The Trump administration notified Congress on Wednesday that it was putting $255 million in military assistance to Pakistan into the equivalent of an escrow account that Islamabad can only access if it does more to crack down on internal terror networks launching attacks on neighboring Afghanistan.

State Department officials said that Mr. Trump's promised changes would bring explicit conditions on military aid. Once Pakistan more aggressively pursues the Taliban and Haqqani network, the aid will be released -- a determination to be made by Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson, officials said.

U.S. Gives Military Assistance to Pakistan, With Strings Attached

#17 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2018-02-05 05:24 PM

RIGHT

Looks like JTosseRigelMain's name will need some tweaking:
JTonyTosseRigelTripoliMain?
TonyTosserTriopliJRigelMain?
EndlessNamedPakiDork?
So many different choices...

There's another one. MRPADDOCK or some such thing. They're all one big cow plop to me.

#18 | Posted by Twinpac at 2018-02-05 06:39 PM

33 Billion "peanuts" since

No American government will ever admit giving BRIBES to the enemy. It will be called "aid" or "military assistance" or "Coalition Support Funds" or whatever.

However, 90% of the "aid" were BRIBES to "influential Afghans" (taliban, drug lords). The rest was payment for the fuel Pakistan provides (STILL provides) to the US effort in Afghanistan. Even the jet fuel for the American planes in BAGRAM comes from Pakistani refineries.

The only way the US has survived in Afghanistan for 17 years is because they used Pakistan to throw money at the Afghans.

The common US soldier is BADLY TRAINED and can't fight his/her way out of a wet paper bag. The Generals are even bigger morons. The common Marine thinks yelling HOOAH! HOOAH! is how wars are won. LOL

i.pinimg.com

Trust me, the Afghans would have killed them off long ago if it wasn't for the BRIBES to the Taliban.

When TRUMP turned off the tap, I said "oh dear... Afghans are going to REALLY get it in the neck now!"

And guess what. Last month was the deadliest for Afghanistan ever. Bombs going off in the middle of Kabul and the "fighting season hasn't even started yet.

I predicted it and that is exactly what happened.

TonyTosserTriopliJRigelMain?

Nice to see I live in your heads. Any and every new guy is me... right? LOL

Paranoid much?

Keep it up.

#19 | Posted by J_Tremain at 2018-02-06 04:32 AM

J. Tremain would love to see a war between the U.S. and China but neither China or the U.S. would like to see such a terrible thing. So, who would like such a terrible thing? Oh yeah, Pakistan...

#20 | Posted by danni at 2018-02-06 10:49 PM

DANNI

" I honestly would love to see him banished for life "

Those flags aren't there for decoration.

Use them.

#21 | Posted by Twinpac at 2018-02-06 11:05 PM

How cute, TonyTosserTriopliJRigelMain just flagged himself Newsworthy, with a new sock puppet as well:

POSTED BY J_TREMAIN AT 2018-02-06 04:32 AM | REPLY | FLAGGED NEWSWORTHY BY SEKAKAI, NEWSWORTHY BY TONYTRIPOLI

#22 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2018-02-06 11:24 PM

neither China or the U.S. would like to see such a terrible thing.

As noted in the article, China does not want war, will avoid it, but isn't afraid of it.

USA, on the other hand, is insane and likes starting wars it can't win.

Tremain is a Pakistani whose job is to sew discord here in the U.S.

YOU cheered when they attacked Iraq.. a war started with lies.

DOTARD is egging on a very dangerous man (Kim) with his tweets. DOTARD wants Kim to nuke some part of America so DOTARD can be president-for-life.

And *I* am sowing discord??? (it's "sowing" by the way... not sewing. LOL)

I honestly would love to see him banished for life

And I would honestly like to frak an Eskimo but it's not happening for me. Nobody gets everything they want.

#23 | Posted by J_Tremain at 2018-02-07 03:44 AM

RIGHT

How cute, TonyTosserTriopliJRigelMain just flagged himself Newsworthy, with a new sock puppet as well:
POSTED BY J_TREMAIN AT 2018-02-06 04:32 AM | REPLY | FLAGGED NEWSWORTHY BY SEKAKAI, NEWSWORTHY BY TONYTRIPOLI

"with new sock puppet as well" ~

Two (2) of them. ~ Now there's a "Sekakai" ~ LOL

#24 | Posted by Twinpac at 2018-02-07 04:45 AM

Will the real J. Tremain please step forward?

One at a time, please.

#25 | Posted by Twinpac at 2018-02-07 05:46 AM

"it's "sowing" by the way... not sewing"

Good call.

"And I would honestly like to frak an Eskimo but it's not happening for me."

You must not want it that badly.

#26 | Posted by sentinel at 2018-02-07 05:50 AM

SENTINEL

There aren't any blonde Eskimos.

#27 | Posted by Twinpac at 2018-02-07 06:05 AM

"There aren't any NATURALLY blonde Eskimos"

FTFY

#28 | Posted by sentinel at 2018-02-07 06:28 AM

Iran or North Korea?

1) Well, North Korea is too tough a nut for Trump to crack.

2) Israel has been beating the drum for a war with Iran. (Obama told them to buzz off)

Or, knowing Trump, (and his IQ) he'll likely take the eeny, meeny, miny, moe route.

#29 | Posted by Twinpac at 2018-02-07 06:38 AM

SENTINEL

"There aren't any NATURALLY blonde Eskimos."

Haven't you been paying attention? "NATURAL" is an automatic prerequisit that comes with peeking privileges.

#30 | Posted by Twinpac at 2018-02-07 06:42 AM

Would an albino Eskimo do? I'm sure those exist, although are rare.

#31 | Posted by sentinel at 2018-02-07 11:04 AM

SENTINEL

I don't know. It's Tremain's fantasy.

#32 | Posted by Twinpac at 2018-02-07 11:17 AM

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