Tuesday, January 02, 2018

Geopolitical uncertainty predicted for 2018

The world is moving toward crisis and a state of "geopolitical depression" as the presidency of Donald Trump accelerates divisions among citizens and the unraveling of the global order, risk consultancy Eurasia Group warns. Liberal democracies are suffering from a deficit of legitimacy not seen since World War II, and today's leaders have largely abandoned civil society and common values, Eurasia Group says in its annual assessment of top geopolitical risks. The breakdown in norms opens the door to a major event that could rock the global economy and markets.

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U.S. global power is "sputtering to a stall" as the Trump philosophy of retrenchment and unilateralism sows confusion among both allies and rivals, Eurasia Group says. The world now lacks leadership to steer it through the impending crisis.

"'America First' and the policies that flow from it have eroded the U.S.-led order and its guardrails, while no other country or set of countries stands ready or interested in rebuilding it ... significantly increasing global risk."

Here are Eurasia Group's top risks in 2018: 1. China will fill the vacuum left by the United States 2. Miscalculations spark conflict 3. Technology cold war 4. Tough year for Mexico 5. Deteriorating U.S.-Iran relations 6. Falling trust in democratic institutions 7. Rise of protectionism 2.0 8. Brexit gets tougher to manage 9. Identity politics in southern Asia 10. Africa becomes less stable

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