Thursday, December 07, 2017

3 things you need to know about Trump's Jerusalem gambit

Here are three things to understand about the regional politics of Trump's Jerusalem gambit. 1) There is no real peace process to disrupt 2) The recognition does matter for U.S. regional strategy 3) Regional politics will determine whether the gamble succeeds

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Most likely, the recognition of Jerusalem will have none of the promised benefits for negotiations and relatively few of the threatened costs. This is not because Jerusalem does not matter, but rather because there is no real peace process to disrupt, little meaningful prospect for a two-state solution to squander, and little belief in U.S. neutrality to violate.

It does matter, however, that Trump's gambit may derail peace negotiations, which have long played an important role in facilitating other regional objectives. The visible pursuit of peace, if not its achievement, has long been the mechanism by which the United States reconciles its alliances with Israel and with ostensibly anti-Israel Arab states. Trump's gamble has less to do with peace than with whether this cover is still needed.

Palestinian territories continues to be one of the few unifying issues among these deeply divided Arab publics. There is little question that Arabs still care deeply about Palestinian territories, or that Jerusalem has particularly salient emotional and political resonance. That concern may be latent, but survey research and social media data alike show that it is real and intense. The key question is whether this public opinion can have any meaningful effect on the policies of Arab states. Arab public attention in recent years has been focused on the wars in Syria and Yemen, and on domestic political turbulence. Public mobilization in most Arab countries faces steep obstacles following the harsh resurgence of brutal forms of authoritarianism.

Comments


Which is better

- the ongoing and seemingly never-ending current environment of constant humanitarian crises, flare-ups and Middle East wars, a.k.a. the status quo for the past couple three decades

- something completely different that may cause humanitarian crises, flare-ups and a Middle East war

I wish I new the answer.

#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2017-12-07 01:25 PM

It's all fun-and-games until somebody gets an eye poked out.

#2 | Posted by madscientist at 2017-12-07 01:29 PM

Then it's a fun game of 'find the eye'

#3 | Posted by Avigdore at 2017-12-07 01:38 PM

Poor G'Kar.

#4 | Posted by sentinel at 2017-12-07 11:45 PM

The next time a progressive tells you that if it weren't for Israel's "aggression" toward the Arabs there'd be peace in the Middle East, remind them of all the peace deals the Arabs have rejected. On today's episode of "Pat Gray Unleashed," Pat went through a brief rundown of the history of Israel and the Palestinians and praised the president (which he doesn't do often) for recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital.

Of course, progressives (like Chris Mattews) are up in arms about the decision and quickly slung insults across the aisle, particularly toward Christians who have a faith-based belief that the Holy Land is assigned to the Israelites by God himself. The fact is that progressives don't really care to understand that Israel isn't to blame for the Palestinians remaining stateless, yet they villainize the only ally we have in the Middle East every chance they get.

#5 | Posted by Sniper at 2017-12-08 12:02 PM

Sniper did you cut and paste that because it's not at your usual sixth grade writing level.

#6 | Posted by snoofy at 2017-12-08 12:26 PM

The next time a progressive tells you that if it weren't for Israel's "aggression" toward the Arabs there'd be peace in the Middle East, remind them of all the peace deals the Arabs have rejected.

#5 | POSTED BY SNIPER

Peace deals? How stupid are you?

The last time Israel came actually close to a legitimate peace deal that didn't leave the Palestinians begging for food and water from Israel, they assassinated their own leader for the compromise.

You are honestly too stupid to continue posting here. Your lies ruin any attempt to understand the real issues. Just be quiet until a topic comes up that you might understand.

#7 | Posted by Sycophant at 2017-12-08 01:04 PM

"1) There is no real peace process to disrupt"
Very true. Neither side is really interested in peace, unless it's on their own terms. And, the US will never really be seen as an unbiased mediator. Especially in light of what Trump is now doing.

#8 | Posted by woe_is_W at 2017-12-08 08:14 PM

Bad headline. "Trump" and "gambit" do not belong in the same sentence.

#9 | Posted by REDIAL at 2017-12-08 08:49 PM

"1) There is no real peace process to disrupt"

Oh, there's a "process."
And it will be disrupted by this.
But it's true that the "process" isn't really designed to bring about peace.
More like, keep either side from doing anything too rash.

I agree that neither side wants peace. Look at what happened to the last Israeli leader who wanted peace: he was gunned down by an Orthodox Jew. Same thing would likely happen to a Palestinian who wanted peace; gunned down by one of "his own" I mean.

Peace is not politically expedient.

Dirkstruan it's kind of like our Two Party System. A lot like that actually.

#10 | Posted by snoofy at 2017-12-08 09:07 PM

But Jesus said unto him, Judas, betrayest thou the Son of man with a kiss?

--Luke 22:48 (KJV)

#11 | Posted by madscientist at 2017-12-08 09:15 PM

Palestinians suffer from taxation without representation.
The wing dings support that now.

#12 | Posted by bored at 2017-12-08 09:35 PM

"But Jesus said unto him, Judas, betrayest thou the Son of man with a kiss?" --Luke 22:48 (KJV) - #11 | Posted by madscientist at 2017-12-08 09:15 PM

Tongue?

Or no tongue?

#13 | Posted by Hans at 2017-12-08 10:04 PM

Judas also kept the purse, so I'm thinking tongue. ☺

#14 | Posted by madscientist at 2017-12-08 11:08 PM

Damn , I wish Diablo was still here to set you straight on Judas and the "son of man" and silver.

#15 | Posted by bruceaz at 2017-12-09 12:56 AM

#5 | POSTED BY SNIPER

Cite your sources.

#16 | Posted by jpw at 2017-12-09 02:02 AM

You are honestly too stupid to continue posting here. Your lies ruin any attempt to understand the real issues. Just be quiet until a topic comes up that you might understand.

#7 | POSTED BY SYCOPHANT

Smack down of the ------' year, y'all!

#17 | Posted by jpw at 2017-12-09 02:03 AM

I see this as a perfect way to justify absurd DoD budget increases that are coming down the pipe.

Sacrifice a few 'Mucricans to terrorism, abroad or (even better) at home, and then watch the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ flow like a glorious green river to the Pentagon, DoD contractors, private merc firms ect ect while we battle the "evil attacks on God's chosen land(s)".

NK is too easy and probably too quick. We need a quagmire to wade into for long term profit estimates to remain true.

#18 | Posted by jpw at 2017-12-09 02:07 AM

#6 | POSTED BY SNOOFY
#16 | POSTED BY JPW

Good call.

literal cut n paste from theblaze.

www.theblaze.com

#19 | Posted by Lohocla at 2017-12-09 02:24 AM

3 things you need to know about Trump's Jerusalem gambit

Easy ...

1) Trump obviously has no effing clue as to what he's doing.

2) Trump obviously has no effing clue as to what he's doing.

3) Trump obviously has no effing clue as to what he's doing.

Not hard.

#20 | Posted by PinchALoaf at 2017-12-09 04:37 PM

Damn , I wish Diablo was still here to set you straight on Judas and the "son of man" and silver.
#15 | POSTED BY BRUCEAZ AT 2017-12-09 12:56 AM
______________________________________________

BruceAZ, I realize you were being facetious, but my comment in #11: "But Jesus said unto him, Judas, betrayest thou the Son of man with a kiss? --Luke 22:48 (KJV)" was meant to strengthen Snoofy's argument in #10: Look at what happened to the last Israeli leader who wanted peace: he was gunned down by an Orthodox Jew. Same thing would likely happen to a Palestinian who wanted peace; gunned down by one of "his own" I mean. Peace is not politically expedient."

In other words, according to the Gospels, Jesus was betrayed by one of his own hand-picked Disciples. In a similar analogy, Yitzhak Rabin was murdered by the Israeli ultranationalist Yigal Amir, one of Rabin's own Israeli countrymen. Therefore: If a Palestinian leader made overtures for peace, he'd likely be assassinated by another Palestinian, as well.

#21 | Posted by madscientist at 2017-12-09 05:45 PM

Well mad, that was kind of a shout out to Diablo if he still reads here, kinda miss him. Our argument was over the silver that was spent to oil Jesus feet. Judas said that the money could have been used to feed the poor.

My comment
Jesus: eff the poor this feels damn good on my feet.

Diablo thanked me for that going on a diatribe about why the Catholic church shouldn't liquidate there assets to benefit the poor.

I agree with your post #21

But you didn't turn down your funny flag for #14.

As saint Ringo would say
Peace and love
:-)

#22 | Posted by bruceaz at 2017-12-09 06:14 PM

One of the often overlooked aspects of the Judas story, and a personal favorite, is Simon Peter pulling his sword when the priests and Roman soldiers came for Jesus and loping off the ear of the high priest's servant, a guy named Malchus.

Or, Malchus One Ear as he was later known, lol.

biblehub.com

Judas' betrayal was another of many fulfillments of messianic prophecy from the Old Testament written many centuries earlier.

www.christiancourier.com

#23 | Posted by Corky at 2017-12-09 07:26 PM

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