The best way, by far, to predict future behavior in regard to something like mis-behaving with a gun, is past behavior.
Let say there is a successful, middle aged person with an absolutely clean record of lawful behavior. Let us add to that a diagnosis of ADHD, mild autism, maybe depression, OCD, or other similar issues.
Of course the State would love to criminalize gun ownership with such people no matter how misguided. It would make it seem like they were "doing something" about guns and they would be reasonably certain that such bullying will not get them killed. Unlike other some neighborhoods and victim-groups they might target.