Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Tuesday, July 08, 2014

A new model of presidential voting suggests President Barack Obama's approval rating -- currently in the low 40s -- will inform not only the 2016 election, but also the election in 2076. The model, by researchers at Catalist, the Democratic data firm, and Columbia University, uses hundreds of thousands of survey responses and new statistical software to estimate how people's preferences change at different stages of their lives. The model assumes generations of voters choose their team, Democrats or Republicans, based on their cumulative life experience -- a "running tally" of events. By using Gallup's presidential approval rating as a proxy for those events, Yair Ghitza, chief scientist at Catalist, and Andrew Gelman, a political scientist and statistician at Columbia University, were able to estimate when political preferences are formed.

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It's no longer true, as it was in the 1960s, that Republican vote share increases linearly with age. Instead, young voters and some baby boomers lean Democratic, with a complicated curve in between.

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For Liberals you can narrow it down even further. To the exact day.
For most on this board it was yesterday.

#1 | Posted by Huguenot at 2014-07-09 01:31 PM | Reply | Flag: | Funny: 1

18-24? Wow, that was during the peak of the Vietnam War, and I was in the USAF, in college, newly married, a kid, and now I am crowding 70. I used to be a Democrat, now I am a Socialist who votes for Democrats! Demographics will be biting the GOP in the butt for the next decade, for sure!

#2 | Posted by RoyaltyBatty at 2014-07-09 06:04 PM | Reply | Flag:

The suburbs used to be solid GOP territory but have slowly and steadily switched to the party of sanity.

The only GOP voters are those hillbilly redneck rascist parts of the nation.
Once they realize how bad the GOP has screwed them out of healthcare and benefits there will be no GOP voters left anywhere in the nation.

#3 | Posted by drewl at 2014-07-10 11:37 AM | Reply | Flag:

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Drudge Retort