Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Saturday, June 28, 2014

Paul Krugman, New York Times: Have you been following the news about Obamacare? The Affordable Care Act has receded from the front page, but information about how it's going keeps coming in -- and almost all the news is good. What's interesting about this success story is that it has been accompanied at every step by cries of impending disaster. At this point, by my reckoning, the enemies of health reform are 0 for 6. That is, they made at least six distinct predictions about how Obamacare would fail -- every one of which turned out to be wrong.

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tonyroma

 

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"To err is human," wrote Seneca. "To persist is diabolical." Everyone makes incorrect predictions. But to be that consistently, grossly wrong takes special effort.

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For reference: I count at least six distinct predictions of Obamacare doom made by the usual suspects, not one of which has come true. Here they are:

1. Enrollment will be very low, and www.forbes.com

2. Even if people sign up, they won't pay their premiums. www.foxnews.com

Reality: Signups exceeded expectations, and the vast majority paid. acasignups.net

3. More people will lose coverage cancelled by Obamacare than gain it. dailycaller.com

Reality: Sharp drop in the number of uninsured. www.gallup.com

4. Rate shock. www.forbes.com

Reality: Like it says, affordable care. www.hhs.gov

5. Young people not signing up, and death spiral. online.wsj.com

Reality: Pretty good demographics. theincidentaleconomist.com

6. Soaring health costs. www.bloombergview.com

Reality: Health costs are below anyone's expectations. www.newrepublic.com

It's quite an impressive track record, actually. And what's even more impressive is that none of the usual suspects will even consider admitting having been wrong. krugman.blogs.nytimes.com


I hereby dedicate this thread to all our special friends living in the wonderful land of denial-of-facts. Though it is a crowded island, its good to remind them that the land of reality is still a nice place to visit from time to time. Let the sniping begin.

#1 | Posted by tonyroma at 2014-06-27 10:23 PM | Reply | Flag:

Did you know Paul Krugman and Bill Kristol both worked on the same Enron advisory board?

Not relevant, just being pre-emptive. :-)

#2 | Posted by REDIAL at 2014-06-27 10:45 PM | Reply | Flag:

This is classic.

Tony is basically saying: My sources are right and all others are wrong.

And then he's crowing about it.

What's really funny is he's going to be eating crow.

#3 | Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-28 01:45 AM | Reply | Flag:

Apparently not tonight he won't.

#4 | Posted by Corky at 2014-06-28 02:13 AM | Reply | Flag: | Funny: 1

They said the same thing when Medicare was rolled out. Look at it today. A smashing success.

#5 | Posted by LarryMohr at 2014-06-28 02:16 AM | Reply | Flag:

He will though - I believe it will fail.

There's a reason why so little actual, hard data has been released by the administration thus far. There's a reason why the administration counts people who have selected a pan but not paid as having signed up.

Fact is, we truly don't know how this thing is going to turn out yet. So, it's WAY too early for Tony to proclaim: "Mission Accomplished!"

As for me, I am not stating that it has failed. I am predicting that it will fail.

See the difference?

#6 | Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-28 02:21 AM | Reply | Flag:

They said the same thing when Medicare was rolled out. Look at it today. A smashing success.

#5 | POSTED BY LARRYMOHR

If it's so successful why can't I opt out?

Ditto for SS?

Allow me to eliminate the payroll tax (which is almost 13%) and I'll self-fund my own retirement and old-age healthcare insurance.

#7 | Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-28 02:26 AM | Reply | Flag:

There's a reason why so little actual, hard data has been released by the administration thus far. There's a reason why the administration counts people who have selected a pan but not paid as having signed up.

Maybe because the information is between a private company and its insured Perhaps.

Fact is, we truly don't know how this thing is going to turn out yet. So, it's WAY too early for Tony to proclaim: "Mission Accomplished!"

So it's WAY to early yet for you to declare it failed then right??

As for me, I am not stating that it has failed. I am predicting that it will fail.

See the difference?

Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-28 02:21 AM | Reply

#8 | Posted by LarryMohr at 2014-06-28 02:29 AM | Reply | Flag:

Part of Medicare's 'success' is the hidden taxes.

According to my wife, the U of M health system services all Medicare patients at a loss. Thus, they make up for it by negotiating higher costs for services to private insurers to recoup Medicare losses- a hidden tax.

Medicare is essentially a monopoly and it maintains its status by pure force.

#9 | Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-28 02:30 AM | Reply | Flag:

So it's WAY to early yet for you to declare it failed then right??

Yes, that is correct.

#10 | Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-28 02:31 AM | Reply | Flag:

If it's so successful why can't I opt out?

Ditto for SS?

Allow me to eliminate the payroll tax (which is almost 13%) and I'll self-fund my own retirement and old-age healthcare insurance.

#7 | Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-28 02:26 AM | Reply | Flag:

Because if it was left up to the individual many of them would have spent the money on other things other than retirement. Then when time came for their retirement they would be plum broke and would be on Governmental assistance.

#11 | Posted by LarryMohr at 2014-06-28 02:33 AM | Reply | Flag:

According to my wife, the U of M health system services all Medicare patients at a loss. Thus, they make up for it by negotiating higher costs for services to private insurers to recoup Medicare losses- a hidden tax.

Medicare is essentially a monopoly and it maintains its status by pure force.

#9 | Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-28 02:30 AM | Reply | Flag:

Medicare often pays for what the actual procedure costs. They won't pay for the over inflated prices hospitals charge.

#12 | Posted by LarryMohr at 2014-06-28 02:36 AM | Reply | Flag:

-See the difference?

lol, yeah, I do. Now that it is werking, all those dire predictions of it's imminent death have turned out to be grossly exaggerated.

So what else is there for ideological opponents to do but to promise future failure?

#13 | Posted by Corky at 2014-06-28 02:39 AM | Reply | Flag:

-They won't pay for the over inflated prices hospitals charge.

Good point, Larry.

As it turns out, studies show that single payer or multiple payer is not the deciding factor in the efficacy of health care systems, but whether the provider has the ability to determine the costs of drugs, operations, and other services.

Where governments firmly determine that with suppliers, there is much success.

#14 | Posted by Corky at 2014-06-28 02:44 AM | Reply | Flag:

Medicare often pays for what the actual procedure costs. They won't pay for the over inflated prices hospitals charge.

#12 | POSTED BY LARRYMOHR

No. Medicare pretty much dictates what it will pay, regardless of cost and the rest of us pay the over-inflated prices to further subsidize Medicare indirectly.

llow me to eliminate the payroll tax (which is almost 13%) and I'll self-fund my own retirement and old-age healthcare insurance.
#7 | Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-28 02:26 AM | Reply | Flag:
Because if it was left up to the individual many of them would have spent the money on other things other than retirement. Then when time came for their retirement they would be plum broke and would be on Governmental assistance.

#11 | POSTED BY LARRYMOHR AT

That is the ultimate problem with left-wing policies. Arrogant elitists think the common man is too stupid to manage their own affairs so big government must do it for them. The problem with this attitude is it never stops. This is why the we see bans on large sodas and restrictions on salt coming from the left. It won't stop there - they will never stop. EVERY aspect of our lives has to be micro-managed by the left because we are all too stupid to manage our lives without the wisdom of government nudging and shoving us in the proper direction at every turn.

#15 | Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-28 09:03 AM | Reply | Flag: | Funny: 1

Where governments firmly determine that with suppliers, there is much success.
#14 | POSTED BY CORKY

It's called price fixing and it leads to long lines and rationing.

It was tried in the '70's during the OPEC oil embargo and the results were as predictable then as they are now.

#16 | Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-28 09:04 AM | Reply | Flag:

The news surrounding the Affordable Care Act has been so good this week, it's almost hard to know where to start.

We could start with the fact that private insurers who skipped the exchanges now want in … nymag.com

One of the many, many, many predictions of Obamacare failure made by conservatives is that insurance companies would systematically drop out of the exchanges. They made this prediction many, many, many, many, many times. The data is starting to come in and, guess what, insurance companies are joining the exchanges. Dan Diamond reports that, in every state that has reported information so far, the number of insurance companies competing in the exchanges will expand in year two. www.advisory.com

… or we could go with the fact, as expected, consumers are paying their premiums … acasignups.net

I'm quite confident that at least 90% of the original 8.02 million exchange QHP enrollees have paid their first premiums (and I'm guessing up to 80% of the 300K+ who've enrolled since then).

… or we could talk about "Obamacare" cutting the rate of uninsured in New Jersey by 38%, Minnesota by 40%, and Kentucky by 50%.*

By why stop there?

Medicare growth rates are also encouraging … www.vox.com

The latest data, as broken down by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, shows underlying Medicare growth, even after adjusting for temporary policies, is growing at just 2.5 percent. That's more than a full percentage point below economic and beneficiary growth. Medicare, in other words, is growing slower as a percent of the economy and on a per-person basis.

Looking at all of the good ACA news last week, www.msnbc.com Simon Maloy said, "We're only six days into June, and opponents of the ACA have already had a terrible month." www.msnbc.com

#17 | Posted by tonyroma at 2014-06-28 12:06 PM | Reply | Flag: | Newsworthy 3

I recently took my kid to the children's emergency room (He's ok)here at Brenner's child hospital at Wake Forest. It amounted to him having pollenal allergies making him sick, basically like a cold. The emergency room charged me $2500. $2500 to give my kid zirtec. We walked in, sat for about 20 minutes, was seen, and left. Total time was about 45 mins. $2500?? I'm lucky I had Tricare and now we have a primary care doctor.

I think I know who is paying for your Obamacare and it isn't those who are "signing up and paying premiums".

#18 | Posted by boaz at 2014-06-28 12:53 PM | Reply | Flag:

"That is the ultimate problem with left-wing policies. Arrogant elitists think the common man is too stupid to manage their own affairs so big government must do it for them."

In the case of Social Security, it was implemented after the real life experience of the Great Depression in which many elderly and infirmed died of starvation and exposure because they had no money. When the Great Recession hit in 2008, history did not repeat itself as those same demographics managed to get by directly through Social Security benefits.

This is why it's important to realize that Social Security is an insurance policy -- not a retirement plan.

#19 | Posted by DCTexan at 2014-06-28 12:58 PM | Reply | Flag: | Newsworthy 2

Medicaid frequently does not pay cost but Medicare usually covers cost albeit with minimal profit. However frequently private insurance will not pay cost either. I know for a fact from my friend the pharmacist that frequently he will pay more than he can bill for prescriptions to both medicaid and private insurance so simply saying medicaid doesn't cover the cost doesn't mean it is any more a failure than private insurance that doesn't cover cost.

Tony Jeff is right about it being too early to call Obamacare a success. I am not saying it has or will fail and early signs are certainly positive for success but they are just early signs, not enough data to say a definitive trend yet.

I have hope that it will accomplish it's goals but at this point I would refrain from crowing how great it is until we have a full year of data at least and realistically more like 3 years. Especially since parts have not yet been implemented.

#20 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2014-06-28 12:59 PM | Reply | Flag:

#20

I am not crowing about anything, I'm presenting counterfactuals that undercut the narrative of those invested in ACA's failure instead of championing needed adjusts and changes to insure that it serves the nation's needs as best it can from this point moving forward.

Unlike the hyperbole from the right, all the emerging data is presented from the standpoint that ACA is doing what it's proponents said that it would in far more areas than it's detractors have been right about it's shortcomings and potential pratfalls.

The partisan eye refuses to even view words objectively because all the "good news" regarding ACA is always joined by language indicating that all references are to "right now" and not necessarily indicative of what may occur in the future.

...almost all the news is good.

At this point,....

How much more qualification is necessary when presenting compiled data illustrative of the point that ACA is working and that many of the prognostications of it's demise and ultimate collapse are not evident within the current data?

For the millions of Americans who now have access to healthcare services that didn't before ACA was enacted, I don't think there's any question that ACA has been a success for them and their families. That we still have Americans openly advocating a return to the atrocious healthcare delivery model that we're rapidly leaving only shows both the insensitivity and outright hostility certain people have for the vast majority of Americans who don't have lobbyists doing their bidding on K Street.

#21 | Posted by tonyroma at 2014-06-28 01:21 PM | Reply | Flag:

It will work and be great in the long run so long as all sides view there are great parts and horrible parts and we need to work TOGETHER to make the great parts better and the horrible parts fixed.

Is it perfect? Nope.
Is it a good start? Yes, so long as it is just that, a start, and not the final project.

Dems, stop using blanket defenses and endless attacks on all critics.

Repubs, stop using blanket offense and endless attacks on all ACA supporters.

Give and take. All sides need to give something up to get what they want which I still believe is a better country for all.

#22 | Posted by kanrei at 2014-06-28 01:26 PM | Reply | Flag: | Newsworthy 1

I recently took my kid to the children's emergency room
...
Pollenal allergies making him sick, basically like a cold

Yeah. Stupid decisions can be expensive. The ER for "basically like a cold"? Ever hear of a walk-in clinic? A pediatrician's office? I hope there's more to that story...

#23 | Posted by apparatchik at 2014-06-28 02:51 PM | Reply | Flag: | Newsworthy 1

So Tony...I guess all of the people that have been royally screwed is OK...you are probably a true leftist supporter like your lead guy and the rest of the left to have faithfully and with intent to have screwed the veterans through the VA mismanagement... Spin the 'so-called' success and ignore the real victims....but, that is the WH way...!!!!

#24 | Posted by drsoul at 2014-06-28 04:41 PM | Reply | Flag:

The establishment of the Social Security program has nothing to do with whether most people are able to take care of themselves. Natural storms can destroy farms and homes plus capitalist criminals lurk at every street corner and computer terminal. There will always be more losers than winners in such a system and there is absolutely no reason they should starve or freeze, as Libertarian Rethugs wish.

The system we have which continues to squeeze the poor, the unemployed, taxpaying middle class workers while writing a blank check to criminal Bankers and endless profits for the ineffective war machine, is a broken system which has nothing to do with our founding principles. Our nation is living many lies.

#25 | Posted by nutcase at 2014-06-28 06:03 PM | Reply | Flag: | Newsworthy 1

The only thing keeping it going is the taxpayer.

#26 | Posted by Sniper at 2014-06-28 06:42 PM | Reply | Flag:

The only thing keeping it going is the taxpayer.

Actually had we not seceded the power to coin money to the bankers it could be kept going without taxes.

#27 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2014-06-28 07:01 PM | Reply | Flag:

Yeah. Stupid decisions can be expensive. The ER for "basically like a cold"? Ever hear of a walk-in clinic? A pediatrician's office? I hope there's more to that story...
#23 | POSTED BY APPARATCHIK AT 2014-06-28 02:51 PM | FLAG:

there is, didn't you notice? Tricare. he has Tricare. how much did he pay, nothing? $45.?

twisted logic.

#28 | Posted by ichiro at 2014-06-29 05:20 AM | Reply | Flag:

Give and take. All sides need to give something up to get what they want which I still believe is a better country for all.

#22 | Posted by kanrei

Ant the federal government must go back to the things listed in the constitution that define their responsibilities. NANY is NOT one of them.

#29 | Posted by Sniper at 2014-06-29 09:26 AM | Reply | Flag:

"That is the ultimate problem with left-wing policies. Arrogant elitists think the common man is too stupid to manage their own affairs so big government must do it for them."

It's not that most people are too stupid to manage their own affairs it is more like wages have been suppressed to the point that there is no way for the average person to save enough to finance their own retirement. The idea though that you think you can does hint that you might not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, what do you think the monthly bill would be for you and your wife for health insurance when you're 70? And then you think you'll have it covered without SS? Either you are a much higher income person than I thought or you're simply delusional.

#30 | Posted by danni at 2014-06-29 11:17 AM | Reply | Flag: | Newsworthy 1

there is, didn't you notice? Tricare. he has Tricare. how much did he pay, nothing? $45.?
twisted logic.

I'd say they'd have good cause to deny his claim, IMHO.

#31 | Posted by apparatchik at 2014-06-29 12:32 PM | Reply | Flag:

Ant the federal government must go back to the things listed in the constitution that define their responsibilities. NANY is NOT one of them.

This type of idiocy (not to mention grammar, spelling and syntax) really needs to stop. How different is this nation today (along with the entire globe) than it was when the Constitution was written? The Founders understood that society evolves as time passes and that in no way could every future contingency be anticipated in the past.

Government's role in society was always going to increase as both the size and needs of the governed dictated that it must change to fulfill it's obligations of fostering the goals the Constitution set forth -- still within it's practical limitations.

#32 | Posted by tonyroma at 2014-06-29 02:01 PM | Reply | Flag:

#32 Flag: Socialist!

#33 | Posted by apparatchik at 2014-06-29 02:51 PM | Reply | Flag:

"How different is this nation today "
"The Founders understood that society evolves"

And the Founders created a process to make changes to the Constitution. The problem is that both parties know that very few of the Ammendments they would have to make would pass muster of the American People. Funny that probably the only one that has a real chance is for term limits to increase turnover in Washington.

#34 | Posted by bogey1355 at 2014-06-29 02:51 PM | Reply | Flag:

yeah...to get more of what the ppl want, not less.

btw, i'm curious to kniw what amendments and what wordings you think those would be?
or, did you mean to say: repeal existing amendments?

#35 | Posted by ichiro at 2014-06-29 03:12 PM | Reply | Flag:

This is classic.

Tony is basically saying: My sources are right and all others are wrong.

And then he's crowing about it.

What's really funny is he's going to be eating crow.

#3 | Posted by JeffJ

Indeed classic.

For that is also exactly what YOU are doing.

Except, without any actual sources.

#36 | Posted by donnerboy at 2014-06-29 03:40 PM | Reply | Flag: | Newsworthy 1

Fact is, we truly don't know how this thing is going to turn out yet. So, it's WAY too early for Tony to proclaim: "Mission Accomplished!"

I'd be careful using that little ditty ..."Mission Accomplished!".

It's a vivid reminder that the GOTP is not very good at making predictions.

Also, the same could be said for the American Experiment itself.

"we truly don't know how this thing is going to turn out yet."

Perhaps we should "repeal" America 40 or 50 times and see how it goes.

So sad the GOTP has now become the Party that always seems to be rootin for Americas failure. And even going so far as to sabotage and undermine the federal government in order to prove it doesn't work.

All to try and win political points and make the Preznit look bad.

Getting Kinda Disgusting... actually.

#37 | Posted by donnerboy at 2014-06-29 03:51 PM | Reply | Flag: | Newsworthy 2

Ant the federal government must go back to the things listed in the constitution that define their responsibilities.

You mean like the power to coin money? "To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the standard of weights and measures;"

I guess you prefer that the bankers have that power since congress can't be trusted right? So which part of the constitution should the federal government go back to the parts you agree with or all of it?

#38 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2014-06-29 04:00 PM | Reply | Flag:

1) term limits...shall serve no more than ____ years in House/Senate combined. And while we're at it, how about nobody serves more than one term as speaker of either chamber?
2) ethics...elected official lying or misleading constituency = felony.
3) campaign finance reform....public financing for POTUS, House, Sanate
4) lobyists...

#39 | Posted by bogey1355 at 2014-06-29 04:05 PM | Reply | Flag:

#22 | Posted by kanrei

Well said..

And glad to see that you're doing better.

#40 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2014-06-29 04:12 PM | Reply | Flag: | Newsworthy 1

It's not that most people are too stupid to manage their own affairs it is more like wages have been suppressed to the point that there is no way for the average person to save enough to finance their own retirement. The idea though that you think you can...

Of course I can. I already am doing just that.

I'd be much further along if I could pay almost 13% less in taxes by being able to opt out of SS and Medicare.

#41 | Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-30 04:56 PM | Reply | Flag:

I'd be much further along if I could pay almost 13% less in taxes by being able to opt out of SS and Medicare.

Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-30 04:56 PM | Reply

I betcha you will be very happy to have medicare when you get old and crusty.

#42 | Posted by LarryMohr at 2014-06-30 05:01 PM | Reply | Flag:

I betcha you will be very happy to have medicare when you get old and crusty.

#42 | POSTED BY LARRYMOHR

Like my dad and my dad-in-law (both on Medicare), I'd prefer private insurance.

#43 | Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-30 05:03 PM | Reply | Flag:

I'd prefer private insurance.

Wonder what that would run at their age? I'm sure the free market would set a fair and affordable price.

#44 | Posted by YAV at 2014-06-30 11:20 PM | Reply | Flag:

Wonder what that would run at their age? I'm sure the free market would set a fair and affordable price.

They both seem to think so.

#45 | Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-30 11:26 PM | Reply | Flag:

I'm sure. There are a lot of people out there that seem to have forgotten why Medicare ever came to be.

#46 | Posted by YAV at 2014-06-30 11:43 PM | Reply | Flag:

I'm sure. There are a lot of people out there that seem to have forgotten why Medicare ever came to be.

#46 | POSTED BY YAV

They are 69 and 71 and are both well-read in terms of history and in terms of politics.

#47 | Posted by JeffJ at 2014-06-30 11:50 PM | Reply | Flag:

I'm content with them believing what they choose as long as it doesn't affect me. I disagree and having gone through both my parents aging and finally losing them both, I am extremely thankful for Medicare.

#48 | Posted by YAV at 2014-07-01 07:04 AM | Reply | Flag: | Newsworthy 1

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