Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Alex Pareene, Salon: According to a working paper from two political scientists who interviewed 2,000 state legislative candidates last year, politicians all think Americans are more conservative than they actually are. Unsurprisingly, Republicans think voters are way more right-wing than they actually are. The researchers asked the candidates what they thought their constituents thought of same-sex marriage, universal healthcare and the abolition of social welfare programs. Republicans were pretty sure their constituents were basically all to the right of Louie Gohmert. Elected Republicans are more conservative than their constituents, but they think their constituents are basically all psycho Freepers.

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doc_sarvis

 

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It's been obvious for years that the Republican Party is massively overly responsive to its most conservative constituents, who are also usually its loudest. Ultra-conservatives don't actually make up a majority of the Republican electorate, but Republicans govern like they do. It's true that congressional Republicans are beholden to constituencies more conservative than America as a whole, but elected Republicans apparently think their constituencies are even more conservative than they actually are. This poll helps explain why the party keeps overreaching, imagining it has a mandate to impose radical and unpopular right-wing policies whenever candidates win low-turnout midterms, and even when they actually lose elections but remain in power thanks to quirks of our political system. Hence, the Gingrich shutdown, the Clinton impeachment, George W. Bush's Social Security "reform" push, and just about everything congressional Republicans have done since January 2009.

Liberal politicians, meanwhile, don't imagine that their constituents are super-liberal. A majority of them also believe that their constituents are more conservative than they actually are. Which, well, that explains your Democratic Party since the Clinton administration. They weren't polled, but I'm pretty sure "nonpartisan" political elites in the media share the exact same misperception. ("It's a center-right country," we hear all the time, which it turns out is both meaningless and untrue.)

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The piece concludes:

The conservative media is probably as responsible as any other factor for this widespread misperception, as it's easy to forget that the number of actual humans who listen to Rush and watch Fox religiously is actually rather small, compared to the number of people who don't. And the nonpartisan media, made up, yes, mostly of ("social") liberals, overestimate the conservatism of "regular Americans." That's why Mitt Romney's campaign, along with the entire conservative media and much of the establishment punditocracy, thought there was no way Barack Obama was winning reelection. Everyone thinks the country is way more conservative than it is.

It should be said that while imagining the country to be much more conservative than it actually is seems to put the Republican Party at a bit of an electoral disadvantage, the myth has been unquestionably a huge positive for the conservative movement, because it leads Republicans to use whatever power they have to push policies beloved by that small, radical minority, even if those policies are massively unpopular. And the myth has long prevented popular liberal policies from even being seriously debated.

Left-liberals who actually pay attention to surveys of popular opinion on things like raising taxes on rich people and expanding Medicare instead of raising the eligibility age are frequently a bit annoyed when they watch, say, the Sunday shows, and these ideas are either dismissed as radical or simply not brought up to begin with, but all of Washington is still pretty sure that Nixon's Silent Majority is still out there, quietly raging against the longhairs and pinkos. In fact the new Silent Majority is basically made up of a bunch of social democrats, wondering why Congress can't do serious, sensible, bipartisan things like lock up all the bankers and redistribute their loot to the masses.

#1 | Posted by Doc_Sarvis at 2013-03-06 07:06 AM | Reply | Flag:

The working paper to which the article refers is "What Politicians Believe About Their Constituents: Asymmetric Misperceptions and Prospects for Constituency Control" by David E. Brockman (University of California at Berkeley) and Christopher Skovron (University of Michigan) - it can be accessed at www.ocf.berkeley.edu

The "vast conservative misperception" is also noted in "Politicians Massively Overestimate Conservatism of Constituents: Study" (www.huffingtonpost.com).

#2 | Posted by Doc_Sarvis at 2013-03-06 07:09 AM | Reply | Flag:

Many Americans are very conservative about progressive programs like SS and Medicare right up until the moment you start talking about cutting their benefits. Tea Partiers are the perfect example....."Keep your government hands off my Medicare." Or how about cutting everyone's benefits who are now 55 or younger, it's always cut someone elses benefits. Nothing is more hypocritical than these folks who want others to sacrifice while they continue to enjoy the full benefits we paid for. The Tea Party isn't just a political movement I oppose it is also a group of people who I have no respect for. I have a brother who is a Tea Partier, I won't even dignify his political views by listening to his stupid rants, the sad part is he actually thinks he has actually studied our system and really knows what he is talking about. It's really sort of sad.

#3 | Posted by danni at 2013-03-06 07:22 AM | Reply | Flag:

Helps explain the incessant whining from the right.

"If only we'd nominate a 'real' conservative..."

"The polls are wrong..."

And the logical end-product of all the self-deception, a bemused Megyn Kelly on Fox - of all venues - trying to toss a hook around Karl Rove and jerk him back into the real world: "Is this just math that you do as a Republican to make yourself feel better?"

#4 | Posted by Doc_Sarvis at 2013-03-06 07:42 AM | Reply | Flag:

On the other hand, and I have nothing but my own observations to back this up, I think the average liberal believes themselves to be far more moderate than they really are, while voting ultra-liberal whackos into office. There's the real problem folks - we are choosing our elected leaders from an increasingly fringe group of candidates. Even if we WANTED a moderate, there often are none to choose from.

The real problem with today's Republican Party is its continued pandering to the religious right. The Moral Majority was neither...remember that quote? As a result, they find themselves mired in a morass of pointless arguments about drugs, abortion rights, prayer in schools, etc..., and they sacrifice economic principles in the process - because the old Moral Majority is increasingly the OLD moral majority and many of them vote "the God line" but want their SS and Medicare. We'll see a shift in the future though, as America becomes increasingly non-religious. Republicans will co-opt Libertarianism's principles and move away from social issues and focus on economic ones.

#5 | Posted by MUSTANG at 2013-03-06 08:26 AM | Reply | Flag:

Republicans will co-opt Libertarianism's principles and move away from social issues and focus on economic ones.

They've lost two presidential elections and so far the only meme the echo chamber pushes out is "We have not gone far enough to the right to win yet."

Throw in the schizophrenia of Jeb Bush who on one hand said Mitt Romney went too far to the right and alienated latinos and in the next breath says he will not support a path to citizenship.

You say they will move away from social issues, but the facts are not playing out that way.

#6 | Posted by 726 at 2013-03-06 09:13 AM | Reply | Flag:

"Unsurprisingly, Republicans think voters are way more right-wing than they actually are."

I completely agree. I'm sure both sides are guilty of surrounding themselves with too many like minded folks but it's obvious in the GOP with regard to polling data ignored by the RNC during the last presidential election.

in general, I think folks consider themselves more conservative.

There is a great reliance of govt from most folks...from street paving to Social security and medicare.

a ton of life-long self professed anti-tax conservatives would be starving to death without SS and would have zero access to healthcare without medicare.

#7 | Posted by eberly at 2013-03-06 09:14 AM | Reply | Flag:

Deep down we are all as open minded, tolerant, anti-conservative and pro-government as Doc, Danni and 726.

#8 | Posted by KBM at 2013-03-06 09:56 AM | Reply | Flag:

obvious in the GOP with regard to polling data ignored by the RNC during the last presidential election.

I still chuckle when I think of "unskewedpolls.com"

#9 | Posted by 726 at 2013-03-06 09:59 AM | Reply | Flag:


Yes Virginia the polls were skewed and still are

unskewedpolls.com

Too damn funny.

#10 | Posted by 726 at 2013-03-06 10:02 AM | Reply | Flag:

#8 Well we certainly are not as intolerant as you.

#11 | Posted by 726 at 2013-03-06 10:04 AM | Reply | Flag:

the sad part is he actually thinks he has actually studied our system and really knows what he is talking about. It's really sort of sad.

Danni, I wouldn't have guessed in a million years that Sniper was your brother.

#12 | Posted by northguy3 at 2013-03-06 07:42 PM | Reply | Flag:

This might explain some of the stranger things congressmen have said.

#13 | Posted by Tor at 2013-03-06 08:56 PM | Reply | Flag:

This is a bunch of bull the state legislative candidates know more about the voters than these political fruit cakes.

#14 | Posted by tmaster at 2013-03-06 09:28 PM | Reply | Flag:

Funny I have not run into many people that want their taxes raised, want the governement to keep spending like there is no bottom to the China credit card, support high unemployment, higher electric bills, higher gas bills, and give up thier freedom of choice for a government check. Like it or not the left wing democratic party supports all these issues. I get through over 100 retail establishments each month and somehow I have not met anyone that wants these things. Just sayin'

#15 | Posted by gtjr at 2013-03-06 10:07 PM | Reply | Flag:

I will speculate that in the next year China will stop buying US bonds. So will every other country that has money to lend. No one in their right mind in this country buys government bonds, the interest rate is just too low. This will happen when the interest on our national debt is approximately 50% of the federal government's real income. See if you can get a bank loan with the same financial situation in your household. We are currently at 16 trillion dollars in debt and rising more than a trillion each year that Commander Zero is in office. The credit crash will play out in one of two ways- ether sever austerity measures- read deep cuts in programs that everyone uses or currency devaluation, which will rob every one, especially those on fixed incomes or those who depend on the state for support. We are currently living on borrowed money and time.
As for myself, I have enough land to grow enough food to feed myself and my family, and approximately two years of nonperishable food stockpiled- and no I am not a nut. I believe in what is reasonable. The nuts are those that believe that the government can save them from the consequences of actions that have taken decades to create.

#16 | Posted by docnjo at 2013-03-06 11:06 PM | Reply | Flag:

"As for myself, I have enough land to grow enough food to feed myself and my family, and approximately two years of nonperishable food stockpiled- and no I am not a nut. I believe in what is reasonable. The nuts are those that believe that the government can save them"
16 | Posted by docnjo

Must....restrain......myself..
...must....from sarcastic.....comment....
during.....this....lenten Season.

OK the urge is gone

#17 | Posted by PunchyPossum at 2013-03-07 12:02 AM | Reply | Flag:

many politicians, like some here--seems increasingly--don't even know what "conservative" means.

#18 | Posted by ichiro at 2013-03-07 02:00 AM | Reply | Flag:

#15
you simply do not ask the right questions, if you ask any at all.

#19 | Posted by ichiro at 2013-03-07 02:02 AM | Reply | Flag:

I think this is no surprise to those of us who don't toe the conservatron line. The clowns will talk up traditional values while doing a series of naughty no nos in airport bathrooms. Then they hire lawyers and various and sundry damage control specialists when they get caught. If that fails they will blather on about how the government wants to turn everyone into a homosexual and steal their guns and money.

Meanwhile they will shoot a friend in the face a few days before going to christening of their grandson whom their lesbian daughter gave birth to out of wedlock. This god fearing rightwing conservatron politician won't mention that that little bundle of joy is the product of a three way tryst between his dyke daughter, her sapphonic lover who installed that little turkey baster bastard named after him with the semen of someone who got paid to masturbate into a cup while reading or watching pornography.

Of course every two years righty tighties whip up all the wannabe good and go to heaven when they die crowd by offering them a sure fire ticket to sit on the right hand of god. Naturally there constituencies go running bald faced foaming at the mouth to fill in the oval next to the name of the sanctimonious windbag because that is who god wants to run the country. To make sure god knows who they voted for will find a couple poor people to kick in the kidneys on their way to the polling station so they can prove to god they hate freeloaders as much as he does.

After all that they will return to their double wides and wives and live thier Jerry Springer lives.

#20 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2013-03-07 06:58 AM | Reply | Flag:

Meanwhile they will shoot a friend in the face a few days before going to christening of their grandson whom their lesbian daughter gave birth to out of wedlock. This god fearing rightwing conservatron politician won't mention that that little bundle of joy is the product of a three way tryst between his dyke daughter, her sapphonic lover who installed that little turkey baster bastard named after him with the semen of someone who got paid to masturbate into a cup while reading or watching pornography.

Wow, I never knew you had such a troubled life. I hope the turkey baster paid child support. It must have be a rough childhood. =P

#21 | Posted by Daniel at 2013-03-07 09:01 AM | Reply | Flag:

There is a simple reason for this, our alleged Democracy is for sale to the highest bidder. In general, Conservatives have more money to throw at our whorish politicians. That money has only one purpose to make its donor more money.

#22 | Posted by nutcase at 2013-03-07 09:34 AM | Reply | Flag:

#22

I do not disagree with that statement but, it is short-sighted to think the other end of the spectrum doesn't do the exact same thing. Once we all understand this I believe a greater understanding of all opinions will be better tolerated.

#23 | Posted by Daniel at 2013-03-07 09:40 AM | Reply | Flag:

We don't need a greater understanding of all opinions, we need fact based policies which promote the general welfare. This is clearly spelled out in our Constitution. Meanwhile, the 1% have distorted facts until the cows come home in order to steal more of your money. Thanks to living in a nation where the same 1% own virtually all the mass media, its working very well for them. Ignorance is their best friend.

#24 | Posted by nutcase at 2013-03-07 09:45 AM | Reply | Flag:

Must....restrain......myself..
...must....from sarcastic.....comment....
during.....this....lenten Season.

OK the urge is gone

#17 | Posted by PunchyPossum

If nothing happens, I am out about 120 bucks for a lot of rice and beans- What will you do when the gray train dries up? Keep looking to the great gray father in Washington to save you, this is called natural selection in biology.

#25 | Posted by docnjo at 2013-03-07 09:58 AM | Reply | Flag:

#25

"Wise people see trouble coming and get out of its way, but fools go straight to it and suffer for it."

#26 | Posted by Daniel at 2013-03-07 10:22 AM | Reply | Flag:

"Pols Overestimate Conservatism of Voters"

In regard to social issues, that may be correct. However, as far as small/big government, spending, deficits and debt, I believe most voters ARE more conservative.

#27 | Posted by jestgettinalong at 2013-03-07 10:35 AM | Reply | Flag:

"Like it or not the left wing democratic party supports all these issues."

Well, figure it out....

chicksontheright.com

#28 | Posted by jestgettinalong at 2013-03-07 10:39 AM | Reply | Flag:

"However, as far as small/big government, spending, deficits and debt, I believe most voters ARE more conservative."

Everybody wants the government to spend as little as possible. I wish advocates in the legislature for reduced spending would offer serious suggestions on how to do the same with less before they argued for simply slashing budgets. If that was happening I could see myself voting GOP some of the time at least.

#29 | Posted by Hagbard_Celine at 2013-03-07 11:06 AM | Reply | Flag:

"I wish advocates in the legislature for reduced spending would offer serious suggestions on how to do the same with less before they argued for simply slashing budgets."

The GAO has posted lots of ways but it just gets ignored. Coburn and Cantor have a web sites with loads of wasteful and redundant programs also but they get ignored too. There are many billions of dollars and specific examples, but you won't find them unless you look. MSNBC is certainly not going to push cutting them and I doubt the NYT will either:

online.wsj.com

www.gao.gov

www.thenewamerican.com$18b-federal-job-training-
program

venturebeat.com

www.coburn.senate.gov

#30 | Posted by jestgettinalong at 2013-03-07 11:22 AM | Reply | Flag:

"but it just gets ignored."

Interesting links, JGA. Advocating for the elimination of redundancy also means advocating for cutting jobs those programs provide. In other words, NIMBY from a legislator's perspective. A truly bipartisan affliction.

#31 | Posted by Hagbard_Celine at 2013-03-07 11:32 AM | Reply | Flag:

Alot of what passes for "conservative" in this country is anything but.

Using the government hamfist to enforce one's religious beliefs is not conservative.

Aggressive foreign policy based on guesses and wacky assumptions is not conservative.

Corporate welfare is not conservative.

Rebupblicans are not conservative. S'ocial conservatives' are not conservative. There are almost no conservatives in the US.

#33 | Posted by Sully at 2013-03-07 03:52 PM | Reply | Flag:

I am not a Conservative, I am not even sure what that means anymore. I am not a progressive/liberal- their actions and statements are too close to pure Fascism. I am a Libertarian, the stumbling block of which is that you can not accept liberty unless you are willing to give it. Tear down the federal government one office at a time until the 9th and 10th amendment are being upheld. Is it not Fascism to centralize political and monetary power? Is it not Fascism to enact speech codes? Is it not Fascism to curtail individual rights for the security of the state? Honest question, any response?

#34 | Posted by docnjo at 2013-03-07 05:03 PM | Reply | Flag:

Go, Doc, go! The uglies' prime delusion is a sizable bloc dedicated to opposing its own interests. Doc S, that is. Another doc sees progressive thinking as fascism. That one obviously is out of touch with reality. herm

#35 | Posted by herm at 2013-03-07 05:11 PM | Reply | Flag:

"Tear down the federal government one office at a time until the 9th and 10th amendment are being upheld. Is it not Fascism to centralize political and monetary power?"

Yep...

"Is it not Fascism to enact speech codes?"

Yep...

"Is it not Fascism to curtail individual rights for the security of the state?"

Yep...

#35 "Another doc sees progressive thinking as fascism."

That "another Doc" is much closer to the truth than the DOC S. you refer to. Neither one of you even knows what fascism is and we're not too far away from it.Tell me this ain't happenin'.

"As an economic system, fascism is socialism with a capitalist veneer. The word derives from fasces, the Roman symbol of collectivism and power: a tied bundle of rods with a protruding ax. In its day (the 1920s and 1930s), fascism was seen as the happy medium between boom-and-bust-prone liberal capitalism, with its alleged class conflict, wasteful competition, and profit-oriented egoism, and revolutionary Marxism, with its violent and socially divisive persecution of the bourgeoisie. Fascism substituted the particularity of nationalism and racialism -- "blood and soil" -- for the internationalism of both classical liberalism and Marxism.
Where socialism sought totalitarian control of a society's economic processes through direct state operation of the means of production, fascism sought that control indirectly, through domination of nominally private owners. Where socialism nationalized property explicitly, fascism did so implicitly, by requiring owners to use their property in the "national interest" -- that is, as the autocratic authority conceived it. (Nevertheless, a few industries were operated by the state.) Where socialism abolished all market relations outright, fascism left the appearance of market relations while planning all economic activities."

www.econlib.org

#36 | Posted by jestgettinalong at 2013-03-07 05:39 PM | Reply | Flag:

Hey RCADE,
I see 'rethug' up all the time. How's that any better than 'libtard'?

#37 | Posted by Huguenot at 2013-03-07 06:57 PM | Reply | Flag:

Hey RCADE,
I see 'rethug' up all the time. How's that any better than 'libtard'?

#37 | Posted by Huguenot at 2013-03-07 06:57 PM | Reply | Flag

LOL....there is no convolution in the moderation as long as it in for the far authoritarian left!

#38 | Posted by moneywar at 2013-03-07 07:00 PM | Reply | Flag:

I see 'rethug' up all the time. How's that any better than 'libtard'?

It's not better. Generally speaking, it's much better to be a libtard than a rethug.

#41 | Posted by nullifidian at 2013-03-07 07:02 PM | Reply | Flag:

I see 'rethug' up all the time. How's that any better than 'libtard'?

Libtard and Republitard and similar words are worse because retard is more offensive than thug. I'd love to see people stop using all the -tard words here.

#42 | Posted by rcade at 2013-03-07 07:04 PM | Reply | Flag:

No one who equates fascism with socialism-they're direct opposites - can claim to speak knowledgeably of any economic matters. That may be the biggest myth promulgated by they're- out-to-control-ME-paranoids. herm

#43 | Posted by herm at 2013-03-07 07:05 PM | Reply | Flag:

| permalink,So the bail out of Chrysler and GM would be OK with a fascist controlled government? +You are incorrect, I know precisely what the definition of Fascism is as a political system is. Perhaps you might remember how enamored the progressives were with the "Italian experiment" during the 20s and 30s. What I was pointing out was the thuggish practices common to the American left today and the fascist then. The common thread I see is a forced collectivism.

#44 | Posted by docnjo at 2013-03-07 07:07 PM | Reply | Flag:

Very well,
Poor disenfranchised liberals. Impotent and unable to get their wishes communicated to their elected leaders. Maybe it's time to come out of the closet?

#45 | Posted by Huguenot at 2013-03-07 07:55 PM | Reply | Flag:

" In fact the new Silent Majority is basically made up of a bunch of social democrats, wondering why Congress can't do serious, sensible, bipartisan things like lock up all the bankers and redistribute their loot to the masses."

This should terrify.

#46 | Posted by techres at 2013-03-07 10:23 PM | Reply | Flag:

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