You know that their published numbers are fake and phony. Double whatever they give you.

It's Obama's fault - the stock market is over 10k.

I wouldn't treat that as a positive. That's where the stimulus money went. It didn't go into building factories and creating new jobs. When the money is easy; speculation is in. When the risks are too great; creating wealth is out.

Matsop

What I know comes from a background in Austrian Theory and hours of daily reading from professional analysts who have experience with financial statistics.

There is an enormous amount of manipulation in every market by the big banks at the behest of the Treasury and Federal Reserve. Low trading volume and falling corporate profits are two giveaways that stocks are riding on fumes. The Crash of 1929 had a bear market rally similar to this one, almost a 50% recovery. The current Dow is at a 46% recovery at 10,000 and showing signs of running out of steam.

The dollar carry trade is another issue, and one that could prove fatal to the dollar if Bernanke keeps interest rates at .25 percent. The effect is to drive the dollar down as it did for Japan in the 90s. At that rate, it pays to borrow (short sell) dollars for almost nothing and invest them elsewhere for higher gains. The trade profits a second time when they buy dollars at a lower price. Bernanke could raise interest rates and change the dynamics, but one never knows.

At this point for a host of reasons, government has crippled the capital markets too badly for there to be a recovery. If there is any consolation it is that government jobs are dependent on taxes which are dependent on the market. You are soon going to see massive government layoffs, first the states and localities, then at the federal level. It's a classic case of the boy killing the golden goose.

Ray, why do you even bother to post since your acumen and knowledge is so obviously advanced compared to your critics?

This site gives me an outlet. The way they are screwing themselves is almost comical. I feel for the innocent people who will be hurt for this. As for the statists, they deserve what they are going to get.

Here's five good sources to bookmark.

The part where he calls people who disagree with him "idiots" (or similar) is a bonus for him.

I haven't ever to my recollection called Ailtd idiot or anything like it. He mistakes name calling for how he feels after arguing with me.

Well, I used to one of the few that debated Ray's crackpot Austrian economics, but then posters like you and Zombie and others stepped up to the plate, so I'm content to let you guys do the heavy lifting nowadays.

Notice their complaint that I think outside the way they think. Ailtd once scolded me to think outside the box. That was funny.

Ray is disgruntled that his predictions of doom and gloom have not come true yet.
#106 | Posted by jackass

I can post numbers and charts all day long to support my thesis. That's the best Jackass can come up with. He did add "yet" as a qualifier. That's, in effect, what I've been saying.

My problem with Ray is that he can't seem to realize socialism works in parts of Europe and could work here if people weren't so greedy with their tax dollars.
#109 | Posted by jackass

It is impossible for any system of systematic theft and abrogation of property rights to succeed. Socialism has no means of producing wealth. The Europeans are plagued by problems that we don't hear about in the American press.

"Independent" is not a synonym for "fringe". I find very little that's worthwhile in people whose position is that alone hold accurate knowledge. Other than that, I agree with you.
#112 | Posted by AILtd

Truth is not decided on the basis of majority or authority opinion. -Logic 101.

I estimate that real realists like myself are one in a thousand. The rest are group thinkers like Ailtd and Nulli.

Guess you are unaware that Ray has predicted the Dow will drop to 1400 or something like that. And he rips Danni (and others) when they suggest otherwise. Of course, since you are into gold, that should get you a break.
#116 | Posted by AILtd

And I remind people that this bear market is not over. Bottoms can't be timed and I never tried.

I guess I'll look that much better when it resumes its fall below its previous low.

Uncontrolled capitalism isn't the answer either. Preying on the lower classes hasn't been working either.
#118 | Posted by jackass

You have it backwards. Capitalism breathed its last breath when Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. Our problem is that government is out of control. One has to be willfully blind not to see it.

Ya gotta learn to pick your spots.
#115 | Posted by AILtd

Reality doesn't pick spots.

If ore people had union jobs like myself they may not have to worry so much when they get older.
#125 | Posted by jackass

What a disconnect! Jackass thinks that unions can improve the lot of workers by extorting their employers. Then he wonders what happened to union jobs and why so many corporations left the country.

Capitalism is doomed, Ray. It is a "grow-or-die" system that requires ever-increasing levels of consumption in a world of finite resources.

#126 | Posted by nullifidian

Well it's rapidly growing in Asia.

The grow-or-die requirement has to do with our credit money Federal Reserve system that has been the engine of inflation. But as usual, when I point to Nulli that government intervention is behind what he attributes to capitalism, he goes into denial.

Yeah, it does. It avoids you, for instance, though that would be of your choosing.
#135 | Posted by AILtd

There you go again, defending group think.

I'm guessing that you worked in government with a job that had authority. Maybe a teacher. Am I right?

That's not to say whether free market capitalism works or not. No self-respecting statist could tolerate a free market.

Wrong. Closest came when I was involved with the Libary of Congress Research division.
But, then, this "analysis" of yours is typical for you.

Hahaha. Said I was guessing. But I was right about you working in government.

Yeah, I do prefer "group think".
That means to let majority opinion do your thinking for you. Then you accuse me of rote memorization. You're a riot!

Ray always accuses his opponent of being a government employee when he gets frustrated. Done it hundreds of times.
#143 | Posted by nullifidian

It's not a compliment. They are the most rigid group thinkers I know.

In your case, I wonder how you function on life. You must have a good reason to be secretive about your background.

Corporations have not left the country, they are still here getting the provided protection from the people in unions that the corporations are extorting by off shoring their labor.

I believe unions are strongest in government now. In the private sector, nobody wants to join anymore. Why is that?

It is amazing you ray are still here, I am surprise you can even leave your house for how anti-American you seem to be.

Bitching about politicians is an American pastime.

Ray - all people and labor are enemies and all corporations are god bound.
#139 | Posted by moneywar

I would argue that they are their own worst enemy. As for corporations, I'm an atheist.

Bull! I did not say this year. Timing market bottoms is a guessing game. The rest of your post is more brain turds.

Depressions don't hit evenly. If you are out of work, it is the end of civilization. If you are working, times couldn't be better. For me, I'm collecting SS and working, AND well stocked in silver and gold.

So you have worked for government? Or is this another blanket, pulled out-of-my-ass, theory of yours? I have worked with lots of people who worked for the government. Very many much more open to discussion and debate than you. Not that such would be difficult.
#153 | Posted by AILtd

Of course! They are all group thinkers like you.

"Group think" means that ideas are vetted. The pros and cons of them are debated, the weaknesses pointed out and discussed. Alternate theories are proposed. All done until there is general consensus. That it becomes the "majority opinion" at that point means that it has passed the exam. Which is how knowledge builds, not by stating that the "majority opinion" is wrong and acting accordingly. If humans had followed your logic, we'd still be living in caves.
#152 | Posted by AILtd

That's very entertaining. For years, I've been explaining why America is sinking into the worst depression in its history. Like Matsop noticed, all I get is abuse for it. When I try to explain government criminality, I get mocked. Okay. Have it your way.

The problem is that, without a central bank, not only is there no efficient clearinghouse, but no standards for banks. Among other issues. And why the Fed was created.
#160 | Posted by AILtd

More group think. The Fed is engaged in legalized counterfeiting and check kiting. By being the instrument of credit money, it was only a matter of time before America became saturated with debt. That time is now.

And doing nothing until the market collapsed and "cleaned itself" would expose increasing, and increasingly huge, numbers of people to that. Yet you have no problem with it, in fact push that it is the "correct" course. And wonder why they question your "expertise".

Like I said in the previous paragraph, the debt pyramid scheme went too far. Now we're fucked no matter what we do.

Your savings and pension is riding on my being wrong. You can continue to argue with me, or take an interest in understanding what I'm telling you.

There is not enough gold in the world to return to a gold standard and have normal everyday commerce. You would have to use a specie that does not have industrial, medical or other demand and in sufficient quantity to allow minute transactions within the economy..we have nothing. paper is as good as it gets.
#151 | Posted by Legio

That is an inflationist's argument - a justification for fiat money. There is always a price at which demand is in balance with supply. I think the naysayers are going to be shocked at the price levels gold will be going to.

To start, it hasn't, so you are/were wrong. To continue, wtf does that have to do with anything other than you executing your duty to provide the worst case scenario?
#164 | Posted by AILtd

I've been wrong about nothing. Economic conditions change over years and decades. They've been eroding since 2001 and accelerating. Government and the mainstream press is hiding it from the public.

When it gets to $2000, we'll be at the equivalent level to its previous high. And the market rebounded then.

The next high for gold will have at least another digit. Maybe 10 years. Maybe five years. Whatever it does, it will exceed every dollar denominated asset.

Maybe. Or maybe it is a justified critique of the gold standard and its inadequacies. Judging by the 19th century, I'd say the latter.

The gold standard forces politicians to live within a budget. They hate it.
Gold provides a standard measurement of value. Fiat money changes value in direct proportion to its expanding supply.

#176 | Posted by AILtd
I could point to sources that used government's own statistics they are lying about the recovery. But you rather connect me to JeffnD.

#177 | Posted by AILtd
If you say so Mr. Group Thinker.

Let us know your thoughts on population control.

I have none. War, poverty and pestilence have worked in the past.

Danni

You keep dreaming. This time is different; it's the final act of a hundred years of deficit spending. Every time I show you the math, you ignore it. It even goes beyond ethics. The Washington establishment has no sense of ethics. They're going to continue stealing from the general public until there is nothing left to steal. That's why I keep all of my savings in silver and gold. Trust no institution.

What's your suggestion Ray. Go back to the neocon policies that created the 10 TRILLION? Give up entirely? Take over the govt? Impeach obama? He didn't create this mess, he inherited it.

$10 Trillion? That's what they tell the public. It's no where close. Counting bonded and unfunded debt, it's well over $100 Trillion. The derivative market is over a quadrillion dollars.

Do tell us what we should do. What is your plan Ray?
#190 | Posted by woke

Get your money out of the system into gold and silver where they can't get it.

No partisanship there, eh?

The whole political system is totally corrupt.

Sounds like Ray is promoting the "global warming" theory of our debt.

I know it sounds crazy. Parodixically, foreigners see it better than Americans. They're slowly pulling their money out. The dollar and gold is your barometer.

Woke

You are asking leading questions when you know nothing about me. I started voting as a Goldwater Republican. I stopped voting when Reagan proved to be a fraud.

I've held a Jeffersonian minimum government philosophy since I was a teen before you were born. It was from that basic mistrust that I've studied the nature of government in more detail than most. So I can say with confidence, that our government is a criminal institution with no moral conscience. It operates by means of fraud, coercion and force. As one should expect, it attracts psychopathic personalities.

No one knows how the course of events will end with the fall of American empire. But I can assure, at this stage, our fate is sealed. It is you who are being duped by criminals who know how to manipulate the masses for the sake of power.

Ray, if there is any ray of light it's the quatrillion derivative position--that's the notional value and one only hopes they can inflate this economy fast enough so as to decrease the at risk portion whatever that amount is.
#199 | Posted by matsop

That's impossible. As the imbalances worsen, the notional amount grows. I rounded off at one quadrillion. Its much higher now.

Their margin of error is so small that they almost couldn't contain it when Lehman Brothers, Bear Sterns and AIG blew up.