Drudge Retort: Red Meat for Yellow Dogs
Thursday, September 11, 2008

Speculation by large investors and not supply and demand for oil were a primary reason for the surge in oil prices during the first half of the year and the more recent price declines, an independent study concluded Wednesday.

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wait its not that we're not drilling enough?

no!

i say lets still drill drill drill
and make holes everywhere

why just off shore

lets drill in every major city!

Nonsense, it was all supply and demand.

-Sincerely,

The Oil Apologists

How would denying the effect of speculators make you an "oil apologist?" Do all investors in oil futures work for oil companies? Do you even know what you're saying anymore?

gas has droped .0987%
oil has droped 27.867%
Distribution cost $1.90 (47% of $4.05)
Crude cost $2.15 (53% of $4.05)
crude cost drop $.60 (27.867% of $2.15)
new pump price $3.45
real pump price $3.65


Who is making the extra $.20 out of every gallon? Or...


$.20 * 390,000,000 gallons of gas per day
78,000,000 dollars a day


How would denying the effect of speculators make you an "oil apologist?"

#3 | Posted by JOE at 2008-09-10 03:37 PM

Good point, Joe. It would actually make you a speculator apologist. A 15% tax-rate billionaire wall-street insider apologist. Good catch!

Speculators speculate on supply and demand.

That's just speculation on your part.

Do all investors in oil futures work for oil companies? Do you even know what you're saying anymore?

#3 | Posted by JOE

Do you?

Remarkably one of the biggest speculators that ran up the cost of oil never ever received a drop of that oil at all and did it only to make a quick buck.

But let's not focus on those nasty little facts.

Good point, Joe. It would actually make you a speculator apologist. A 15% tax-rate billionaire wall-street insider apologist. Good catch!

#5 | Posted by DARTHCHENEY

My bad.

Who is making the extra $.20 out of every gallon? Or...


$.20 * 390,000,000 gallons of gas per day
78,000,000 dollars a day


#4 | Posted by TaoWarrior

But then when Exxon Mobil reports another quarter of record profits the corporate apologists will line up to defend them.

The government make the most money on gas and oil.

The study's wrong. Unless a speculator is willing to take delivery of the crude, he has to sell the contract before expiration. And selling the contract will . . . cause the price to fall.

Call me old fashioned. But the price of any commodity is set by the highest marginal producer, and the last marginal buyer. Doesn't matter if it's sugar or copper or corn or wheat or soy or orange juice or treasury bills. Where the highest bid producer and the buyer of last resort meet, you have your price. And for oil, that number was all over the place, courtesy of erratic OPEC supplies, a squeeze from Asia, war worries, and high demand. And since all those have dissipated, the price has dropped.

Hope they didn't pay much for this study.

Of course, now that the price is dropping, the oil companies can pull back on supply, creating an artificial shortage, and keeping the prices still inflated.

I don't remember who, but some comedian once said, "I don't mean to go nuts with conspiracies, but if we had elected the CEO of IHOP into the white house, and by the time they left, pancakes had gone up nationally by 400%, people might start talking."

Just another way the rich get richer off the poor, and republicans still convince "values voters" that they're really looking out for them. Even as McSame want to drill for that 3% next decade and make it look like he's doing something for the american people. Meanwhile, if we instituted some sort of renewable energy policy, that made use of wind, geothermal, nuclear, solar, and wave/tidal, one has to wonder what that would do to oil speculations. Sad thing about that hope is oil lobbyists have a lot more money than the more green groups, so not hard to see how that one will play out.

Those 'speculators' always seem to lower the price before major elections...Hmmmmmmmm.

I guess 'Speculators' is code for the Bush WH.

Well duh. And Bush and McCain are not saying a thing about it. Don't hear Palin complaining either. Of course she maintained high approval rating by giving away oil profits from the rest of the US to her constituents.

this is also at least three week old news as well.


The study's wrong.

#12 | Posted by rightisright

You're full of shit RiR. Your 'conclusions' conflict with those in the study. The difference is the study bothered to offer evidence. You just wave your hands around and hope that if it's good enough for the church crowd, it's good enough for us.

RIR thinks throwing darts at the WSJ is a good way to give financial advice on picking stocks.

Wright is Wrong again. Phantom trading is the reason for the price increase. They were trading 3 times the number of barrels that were available. Wall Street has the same affliction, and nothing substantial is being done about it.

stopphantomshortselling.org

By perpetuating the fallacy that the market determines the price, when in fact dishonest traders can easily manipulate the share value, is an indication of a lack of moral fiber or intelligence.

Call me old fashioned. RiR

I call you a liar.

Oil prices have gone from a high of 147.25 to 100.87 in a matter of a month!!! Of course this is all speculation. A disorderly unwind of the smart money taking money out of one asset class to find another. This has nothing to do with fundamentals. The slowdown of emerging mkts has been going on since 2Q. Everything is already "baked into the cake" as far as oil goes. The true price should be in the 50's in the short term, but we know we'll never see those prices in our lifetime.

Wow, demand is down a third?

Most of these big money financial speculators were pension funds and even if they were not colluding, they can move a market up or down if they all do the same thing at the same time.

Most teachers are libs, the teachers union was involved, ergo libs are responsible for this problem.

FACT!!

Horse shit.

What the oil mafia is doing is running all its operations through one clearing house to maximise profit.

Think of it this way: If all the sellers of any commodity put all a collective agreement then they can collude to do whatever they want with prices. Real competition would lower the price, and you don't want that. Not if the goal is to profit maximise.

It's called monopoly power.

This is why oil dug up in america goes overseas.

SHAWN,

The only problem with your wacky economic theory is how to explain the recent 30% drop in oil prices.

No dumbass. It is you who don't get it.

Oil prices are going down because of the presidential selections. They have to make it easier for people to vote for mccdouchbag over the black guy is all.

Not that Obama is all that different, but they would prefer an imbecile over someone who might make a stink once in a while while they fleece the populace.

SHAWN,

When you die I want your brain along with BUFFALO BOBS to see if it is true what I believe about the structure of lib brains. Maybe the genectic defect can be corrected for future generations.

Drill baby drill. Without oil we do not have plastic, tires, lubricants and basically get your candles and wood burner fired up because we will all turn Amish.

Go away dumbass. You are clearly too stupid to talk too.

For the rest of the people here:

Say there are ten groups who own all of a resource. Would they really want to compete? WHY?!?! It's much more profitable to set a high price and abide by it.

So they are using a clearning house (broker) to do the rigging. Big fucking deal. It's still an organized monopoly.

Same thing is going on at CBOT with Soy & Corn,
speculation and hedged massive positions.

Gas was around $1.25 in 2000.
Something or someone cause prices to rocket to the moon, and someone made (and continues to make) immense profit off of the gas buying public.

I hope this study wasn't financed by the tax payers. This is nothing new nor enlightening.

Free market should determine the oil price. Supply VS Demand. Not the loser brokers!

Oil prices per barrel go down and gas prices go up? Huh? Someone crashed an Oil truck in Kansas! WTF?

Free market = marketing scam.

A real free market would have no police to protect the market from being robbed. Thus what you want sam is a REGULATED market in YOUR interests.

Completely full of shit.

I guess 'Speculators' is code for the Bush WH.

#14 | Posted by COMMONSENSE

You libs say that Bush is as dumb as a box of rocks but you give him credit for every evil scheme there is in the world. You accuse him of controling everything.

Which is it, is he smart or dumb?

We are developing alternative energy...but it's not ready to run the country/world yet. Like it or not, most of us use products supplied by the oil giants..every day. It's not just gasoline. Or oil. It includes many petrochemical products. Plastics. Rubbers (i know). If oil disappeared tomorrow, we'd be in bad shape. I think most people are all for alternative and more environmentally friendly energy resources..but Rome wasn't built in a day. Until you free yourself of all products that come from oil, you are a hypocrite for full-fledged bashing. You want to criticize oil companies...fine...but they are no worse than Wal-Mart and any other successful capitalist corporations who are earning big bucks through supply and demand.

Horse shit.

If people demanded mass produced solar panels on everyones house, and automatically fired ANY politician/corporation/judge/
ANY FUCKING ASSHOLE in power who opposed that measure, it would happen.

It will not happen because the people aren't willing to fight for it against those controlling interests.

End of story.

ok...so who is gonna put solar panels on my house? how much will they cost and who will pay for it? if it's ready...bring it on...but i dont' have $100k (or however much) to buy solar panels. the masses have even less. who is gonna pay for it all?

That's an evasion.

There are plenty of way to lower the price(mass production being the most obvious).

America seems to have plenty of money for the next war, but not enough to rid itself of the energy mafia.

For some reason there is always just enough money for the dept. of homeland security, just not enough for national health care.

WOW! What a fucking coincidence!

How fucking dumb can you be?

He's dumb. But surrounded by evil smart greedy self-serving hypocritical assholes like Cheney.

always good to have a civilized conversation/debate with you guys. so get out there and make it happen. stop dicking around on the computer and go back your plan.

Here is your civilized monster.

Blow it out your ass!

Repeat as needed.


brilliant shawn..just brilliant. not an answer...but brilliant.

Most of the big money specs were not the Pension funds. Do you think Calpers could move in and out of positions with ease? Its the Hedge funds that created this bubble. Just like the bubble they built over the past year in Ag stocks, Coal stks etc etc.

If you're as stupid as most of the posters on this thread, it's no doubt easy to assume that people are sitting around a room, deciding on what the price of oil will be. Then the OzarkAggies of the world link to a conspiracy website which confirms their darkest suspicions.

Doesn't happen. And you're stupid. Some speculators make money. Some speculators lose money. In fact, for speculators, it's the world's only zero-sum game. But unless you're willing to take physical delivery of the commodity, you're just white noise, and can't move the price.

RIR is a speculator. His defensiveness in relation to all criticism of speculators is self interest based.

Bah. Right isn't smart enough to speculate. He'd be homeless.

It is always amusing to me that the same stupid assholes who always talk about government conspiring to take away all their money(taxes), seem to all of a sudden brain spazms at the idea that corporations do the same.

The simple idea that multinational corporations run the organized world is impossible for these fucking morons because it's not on Who Wants to be an Unmitigated Jackass...

Uh huh. Well, when did then decide to mark down the price of crude 32% in just five weeks? Was that a giant conspiracy, too? To lose money? How about all those natural gas companies, that are now banking half the revenues they were, just since April of this year?

LOL. You guys are hysterical. Hedge funds and endowments thought they would get in on the party, and they bid up the price of futures contracts. Then, guess what? No buyers at higher prices. To close out their positions (you know, so they wouldn't have to take delivery of millions of tons of crude oil)--they had to sell, driving prices down.

I'm in the markets every day. Still, you retards know best. After all, you can read links and studies and 'blogs. Stuff like that. Before you know it, you're experts on energy trades. Too funny.

Not to mention fucking illiterate..

rir got clobbered in this thread.

The study's wrong.....Hope they didn't pay much for this study.

#12 | Posted by rightisright at 2008-09-10 11:13 PM

RiR is the perfect little Rethug...he does not like studies. They tend to contradict the Rethug lies.

the price of any commodity is set by the highest marginal producer, and the last marginal buyer. Doesn't matter if it's sugar or copper or corn or wheat or soy or orange juice or treasury bills. Where the highest bid producer and the buyer of last resort meet, you have your price. And for oil, that number was all over the place, courtesy of erratic OPEC supplies, a squeeze from Asia, war worries, and high demand. And since all those have dissipated, the price has dropped.

#12 | Posted by rightisright at 2008-09-10 11:13 PM | Reply

I ran this through The Liberal Language translator and it came out:

Bush's Fault!

RiR,

Dropping $60 billion, as indicated in the report, into oil futures, will drive the price up (depending on the time frame). Derivatives are a legal form of gambling. Their prices are subjective, not based on supply and demand.

We agree some of the price increase is based on the fact that Shrub has destabilized the Middle East by attacking Iraq and routinely threatening Iran. He should have known this would occur. His Father certainly did and released the strategic reserve before GulfI. This prevented a spike.

Where does this derivatives trading money come from? No question much of it is bailout money provided by the Fed to failing banks & brokers, Bernanke's pals on Wall Street (insiders). Brokers and Investment Banks have been given this freshly printed money @ 1-2% interest in order to play oil futures. The Fed has already dropped its entire $500 billion reserve into the marketplace and is still printing money. Morgon-Stanley has bought and taken possesion of the Northeasts heating oil supply. But most of these transactions are secret.

These traders lead a priviledged life, cheap capital, Government guarantees. If a majority of them "think" the price is going up, it automatically goes up. These markets operate as a private tax system. If they can't make money,they go out of business,but in many cases they never take possession of the oil. These facts have nothing to do with supply and demand, or the free market model. Big fish eat little fish. Like the Government, with enough money, they create their own reality.

Case in point. Big oil and GM bought Oshevsky's battery company. They replaced California's Air Board Chairman and crushed thir electric cars, and took his large capacity batteries off the market, so that noonecouldhav them. Meanwhile, Exxon has launched an ad camapign claiming they don't have the technology yet, but are working really to bring it to us. They did all this to extract maximumrevenue from their oil monopoly before permitting us to have any other options.

The free market is a model and useful tool to begin the study of economics. But it is far too simple to explain what really goes on in this world. In the real world Rockerfeller, JPMorgan, Gates, Rothschild et al, use their capital and monopolistic market power to maximize their profits. Gramm, Clinton, Bush and McCain have all used their political power to implement deregulation and the results have been disasterous. For the last year, supplies and prices have been up, but there is an election coming up and these crooks want their favorite partners in crime to win.

Bernanke's next problem is an $11 trillion bailout of deregulated Banksand S&Ls. Just keep printing money and hold a gun to the rest of world's heads. How long can a failure to produce real goods and services continue?

Its all bullshit and its bad for you.

Dropping $60 billion, as indicated in the report, into oil futures, will drive the price up (depending on the time frame). Derivatives are a legal form of gambling. Their prices are subjective, not based on supply and demand.


* * * * *

It'll drive up the price of the futures. But unless you've got a supertanker in your back yard that you're willing to fill up, sometime before contract expiration you have to SELL the contracts, driving prices DOWN.

Hope I'm not going too fast for you. But if you're willing to believe that speculators pushed the price up, then you have to concede they are now smashing the price down. In which case, why should you care?

"We have clear evidence the fund flow pushed prices up and the fund flow pushed prices down," said Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management, calling the amount of money moving into oil futures markets by large institutional investors in the early part of the year "way off the scale."

726- Exactly. It's all there in black and white. However, where is the regulation in artifically jacking prices up? Markets are suppose to be orderly and this was not orderly.

RiR,

I care because because I have to pay more as long as they have a position in the marketplace. Like Health Insurance Companies, they are an entirely unnecessary middleman whose effect is to increase prices without adding any value to the product. They are an added cost as the price rises and an added cost as the price descends. Worse, their presence increases the rate and intensity of these market price changes. Certain things like water, electricity, oil, operating systems enjoy special power because they are vital to living and working. You have to buy gas to go to work, regardless what the price is.

It is one thing to pump oil out of the ground or build a house. That is real production and will stengthen our currency. It is quite another to trade companies or inflate oil or housing prices. These transactions yield quick bucks for the middlemen but ad nothing real to the economy. One consequence is a decline in the currency which further aggravates price increases.

Those who own the means of production do not suffer, because their holdings increase proportionally in value. But workers and retirees take it in the ass. Greenspan believed speculative trading and manufacturing contributed equally to our economic health and we are now living with the consequences. From the perspective of those at the top of the ponzi scheme he initiated he is correct. For everyone else, its eat shit and die.

No nutcase. They are much worse than unnecessary middle men. Administering the sale of a limited product through a centralized office that colludes to control the price is called a monopoly.

I'm sure the business assholes who run it take a percentage, but the real thieves are still the same oil mafia that is giving its consent.

As I stated earlier. The reason prices are down now is because they don't want angry americans voting for obama. Not because they can't deal with him, but they would prefer an imbecile like Mccain.

OK all of you who attacked RisR. You have completely exposed your lack of understanding of basic capitalism and our economy.

This is why you see conspiracies everywhere, believe Obama's tax plan is logical, don't understand the capital gains issue and completely miss how critical the decision to try to save Freddy and Fannie are to your jobs.

Ok...lets start - basics of capitalism - supply and demand. If you have a lot of supply - prices go down - if you have little supply and lots of demand - prices go up.

Speculation; Speculators make money by anticipating market moves. If they anticipate that supply will outstrip demand they buy "puts" which are bets that the market / stock / commodity will fall. If they think that demand will outstrip supply - they buy "Calls" or long end contracts.

In this case there were three factors; because demand for oil kept increasing, no new potential additional supply, and the price of a barrel is in dollars and dollars were in a free fall; everything pointed to an increase so they "speculated" with long contracts on oil and, as a result, prices did go higher - and the Bull Market in oil was born. (and why the statement "drilling will only reduce gas prices by 1 cent per gallon" are ludicrous.)

Go back and look at when the prices started to fall. Three things happened. 1) US demand for gas decline as Americas stopped driving. 2) The US economy declined requiring less energy and therefore reducing not only our demand - but by every other country that supplies us with oil or energy supported goods. 3)Bush lifted the ban on off shore drilling.

This affected the market as 1) supply had the potential to increase with the off shore drilling 2) demand fell. So the "speculators" now have shifted into projecting a fall in prices and - sure enough - they are falling.

So ..do "speculators" drive the upswing in costs - YES do "speculators" drive the FALL in prices - YES

Are they to "blame" for the cost of oil. No..they are just reacting to market conditions. What is to "Blame" is lack of supply with ever increasing demand.

So. Drill Baby Drill...Just the POTENTIAL for additional supply impacts long term contracts. ADD NUKES (which the DEMS and Environmentalist stopped in the 70's) which reduces demand.

And Vote Baby Vote - for McCain instead of the corrupt, clueless, neophyte - "fill your tires" while I tax your ass - Obama

"Ok...lets start - basics of capitalism - supply And demand. If you have a lot of supply - prices go down - if you have little supply and lots of demand - prices go up."

----------

Dead plain wrong. What the suppliers do is collude to artificially raise the price, and establish barriers to entry(control all the oil fields) so that noone can break the monopoly, and then advertise using some of those profits to keep those barriers forever by establishing brand loyalty.

As I said, Speculators is the wrong word. It's a clearing house that all the oil mafia use to make pure profits.

And the rest of your post is just marketing garbage based on the above false premise.

Dead plain wrong. What the suppliers do is collude to artificially raise the price, and establish barriers to entry(control all the oil fields) so that noone can break the monopoly, and then advertise using some of those profits to keep those barriers forever by establishing brand loyalty.

But your democrat controlled congress called these guys to task a few months ago and found no evidence of collusion.

Were these evil corporate meanies able to outsmart your democrats in congress? If I was a lefty, I'd be a bit embarrassed to admit that.

I think i've made it quite clear in many postings here that in my view the democrats are no different than the republicans. All bought.

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