YEAH!

So when one calls for a Rain of Biblical Proportions to ruin someone Speech, and it does, how is that reconciled when the Ruined Speech is Your Own?

It's also typical, Bowman reports, for "moderately sized bounces" to evaporate after the convention. That's what happened to Democrat Al Gore in 2000, who left his convention with an 8-point spike in the polls, "but his numbers soon retreated."

The same fate befell presidential candidates Barry Goldwater, Jimmy Carter (in his second run), Walter Mondale, and Michael Dukakis, who had bigger bounces than their opponents, according to polling information from Gallup, but ended up losing in November.

He's going to lose to the old guy? Suuure, I'd put money on that.

Scr, do you mean that a muslim that hates America and a draft dodger are going to get beat by an old guy and a gun toting babe?

Let's see.. Gore, Goldwater, Carter, Mondale, Dukakis all had these kinds of "bounces" too? Obama will fit right in with The League Of Losers.

#2 | Posted by cookfish

Yeah, but those guys actually had a conservative republican running against them and not an old doddering fool who can't even remember what he had for lunch or what bill he sponsored or voted for a month ago.

spit, stroke, spit stroke, spit, stroke, spit stroke, spit, stroke, spit stroke, spit, stroke, spit stroke,

Got that Red?

#3 | Posted by vernon

Vern, we're impressed!! You must have gotten your "master" in that activity..

Pollersters will tell you that convention bounces almost always go away on their own. So aboma can cruise along with that same 2-3 point Rassmusen lead hes been posting for the last two months all the way to november.

Yeah, but those guys actually had a conservative republican running against them

#6 | Posted by geezer1

Who was the conservative republican running against Goldwater? My memory says it was that old warmongering, lib Johnson. You know, the guy that said "if you vote for Goldwater we will have a big war in Viet Nam" He was right. I voted for Goldwater and the war in Viet Nam grew a whole bunch over a lie about the Tonkin Gulf.

I guess my memory isn't what it once was.

Not the bounce he should have gotten.

It seems the rightards are very tender over any news that doesn't look good for Johnny Junks Jets and his sidekick.

Why so tender? Dry those eyes......

Not deserved, but Congratulations Obama.

Not the bounce he should have gotten.

Per the "Obama will get a 15 point bounce" right-wing talking point?

Well then McCain and Moose Hunter Barbie should get a 20 point bounce. Think they will?

Scr, do you mean that a muslim that hates America and a draft dodger are going to get beat by an old guy and a gun toting babe?

#5 | Posted by Sniper at 2008-09-02 10:05 AM | Reply | Flag:

Do you mean that a traitor who squealed to the enemy after crashing his 5th jet who then went on to cheat on his injured wife and a machine-weilding whore whose can't even raise her underage daughter to keep her legs closed are gong to get beat by two TRUE Americans?

Do you mean that a traitor who squealed to the enemy after crashing his 5th jet who then went on to cheat on his injured wife and a machine-weilding whore whose can't even raise her underage daughter to keep her legs closed are gong to get beat by two TRUE Americans?

#14 | Posted by COMMONSENSE at 2008-09-02 10:52 AM

Prove he squealed.. Talk is cheep.......

uncommon,

thanks for the laugh.......

two TRUE Americans?

#14 | Posted by COMMONSENSE at 2008-09-02 10:52 AM

Is there a third set of candidates I do not know of? Surely you can not be talking about about osama and draft dodging joe.

spit, stroke, spit stroke, spit, stroke, spit stroke, spit, stroke, spit stroke, spit, stroke, spit stroke,

And Vernon wonders why nothing happens. More stroke less spit you idiot.

ah just look at the crawfishing and bullshit

THE FACT is.......this is the smallest bump since 1964 and only a third of what gore and clinton got.

and now lets see that the bumb is after republicans bring an AMERICAN WOMEN into the picture......

FACE IT.........even with all of the bush sucks atmosphere going on........OBAMA CAN LOSE THIS RACE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If this week is all-Palin, all-the-time, I can't see how McCain gets anything good from the Republican convention. He's managed in picking her to end a month in which he was constantly hammering Obama and it was working.

........OBAMA CAN LOSE THIS RACE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#19 | Posted by bushlovertwo at 2008-09-02 11:20 AM

but he wont. go knock back a beer.

BL2 what about Sekula-Gibbs? Tell me about that Mr. Educator

BL2 is right. Anything can happen this election season. Look how wacky it's been already.

I mean, shoot, look who is now scheduled to give the keynote tonight.

Wouldn't it be entertaining if Sarah's dumped today and Joe turns his speech tonight into an acceptance?

but he wont. go knock back a beer.

#21 | Posted by hillbillydeluxe at

well if I have to, then I guess you just have to do what you have to do............thanks for the tip

well if I have to, then I guess you just have to do what you have to do............thanks for the tip

#24 | Posted by bushlovertwo at 2008-09-02 11:33 AM |

im on vacation so i'm doin what i do.

ted......you joke but lets really look at that.....I heard it from the republican hispanic on cnn yesterday and I mean this honestly without bullshit

an inexperienced senator from ill came from virtually nowhere to beat HILLARY CLINTON For the nomination

mccain was dead in the water and now is going to be the next pres

republicans pick a women and NOT the dems

and ray nagin may have acutally dont his job.

ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.........

Joementum for VP! That would be hilarious. Ol' Crash McCain has already doomed the campaign. Lieberman will put the final nail in the coffin.

John "Crash and Burn" McCain.
It ain't just military aircraft anymore.

a three-point increase from a poll taken Aug. 21-23.

Is that really a "bounce?" Does anyone know if that is on average with what canddiates usually get in the past?

and now lets see that the bump is after republicans bring an AMERICAN WOMEN into the picture......

These latest polls do include the selection of Palin on Friday, it's already factored in.

But these polls were also from the "Who's Palin" point. Give it time, her negatives are skyrocketing as they learn about this ALASKAN woman.

an inexperienced senator from ill came from virtually nowhere

For a second there I thought you meant Abraham Lincoln, but he wasn't a Senator, just a lowly Congressman.

yes rob.........it is the smallest bounce since 1964 according to reports.......

at first on CNN..........so it cant be denied.......it showed that before they were tied at 47 and now its obama 49 and mccain 47...
from CNN over the weekend........SO IT HAS TO BE TRUE

of course when they actually saw this, CNN might have done some revision to protect THEIR CANDIDATE......

rob

I know the reps were predicting Obama's bounce at 15% last week. But we both know what that was all about.

"THE FACT is.......this is the smallest bump since 1964 and only a third of what gore and clinton got."

Do you not realize you're being stupid, or do you just enjoy the humiliation?

The smallest bounces were the 4-point drop John Kerry saw in his margin against President Bush in 2004, and the 3-point reduction George McGovern endured in 1972 against President Nixon. Both Democrats lost.

CNN might have done some revision to protect THEIR CANDIDATE......

Funny how we see what we expect to see.

You call it the Clinton News Network, I call it the Conservative News Network.

rob

I know the reps were predicting Obama's bounce at 15% last week. But we both know what that was all about.

#32 | Posted by TedBaxter

Well sure they were hyping it up so they could then say that he obviously failed... but to only get 3 points in one poll (he's losing in Zogby's latest, and only up by 1 in CNN's) seems low to me... I expected he would get quite a large bounce, because it was a pretty good convention.

"yes rob.........it is the smallest bounce since 1964 according to reports......."

Do you not realize you're being stupid, or do you just enjoy the humiliation?

You call it the Clinton News Network, I call it the Conservative News Network.

#34 | Posted by TedBaxter

And during the Democratic Convention they were the only ones I thought were being fair. FoxNews was right leaning as always, and MSNBC was completely unwatchable... either they were fighting with themselves, or Kieth Olbmermann had his hand down his pants for 99% of the broadcast.

It does seem low, and I expect part of it was the immediate distraction and interest in the Palin announcement the next morning.

Do you not realize you're being stupid, or do you just enjoy the humiliation?

The smallest bounces were the 4-point drop John Kerry saw in his margin against President Bush in 2004, and the 3-point reduction George McGovern endured in 1972 against President Nixon. Both Democrats lost.

So Obama's following the path of McGovern.

Get used to saying President... oh who gives a shit, we're screwed anyway.

"but to only get 3 points in one poll (he's losing in Zogby's latest, and only up by 1 in CNN's"

Comparing Obamas current 49% support with the 45% he received immediately before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Denver last week suggests he received a 4-point bounce out of the convention, fairly typical of past convention bounces. Aside from the past few days, Obama has only once previously attained 49% support from national voters, and that was in late July.--

For a second there I thought you meant Abraham Lincoln, but he wasn't a Senator, just a lowly Congressman.

#30 | Posted by TedBaxter at 2008

thats right ted and would you consider abe a pretty good president or not?

Get used to saying President... oh who gives a shit, we're screwed anyway.

#39 | Posted by LIVE_OR_DIE

lol... probably true... but only for 4 years... we'll be fine.

That's the thing, with Fox and MSNBC you always know exactly what you'll be seeing.

CNN seems more subtle, you probably see the shading of the presentation one way and I'll see it the other.

Yes I do, BL, but you obviously don't.

fairly typical of past convention bounces. Aside from the past few days, Obama has only once previously attained 49% support from national voters, and that was in late July.--

features.csmonitor.com

#40 | Posted by truthsetyoufree

Dude, didn't you just post a link saying the average convention bounce is around 10 points?

Which is it?

So much for your "FACT" bushlovertwo

#33 | Posted by truthsetyoufree

bite me

according to cnn over the weekend it was a two point bump.........and so by your FACTS, I must have been right about cnn juicing the numbers............

"So Obama's following the path of McGovern."

Do you have trouble reading?

the 3-point reduction George McGovern

Or are you claiming that Obama has lost after the convention?

wrong again ted

abe.........a REPUBLICAN

That's the thing, with Fox and MSNBC you always know exactly what you'll be seeing.

True... except for the fighting... I didn't expect that. Does anyone that works there like Olbermann? Hell even Chris Matthews by the end was fighting with him...

"according to cnn over the weekend it was a two point bump........."

Got a link for that? I provided one.

"Dude, didn't you just post a link saying the average convention bounce is around 10 points?"

And I also posted a link which said:

These quick popularity boosts don't always mean much. In 1964, President Johnson and Republican Barry Goldwater saw convention bounces of about the same size, while in 1984 Democrat Walter Mondale's 16-point boost was double President Reagan's. Johnson and Reagan won landslides.

In 2004 Bush got the smallest GOP bounce measured yet 2 points and was re-elected.

truth.........I wrote it down and have it with me now after it came up on the screen...........I know that you and others will call me a liar but I really dont give a shit.....I know what I saw and I wrote it down.....I will have to say that it could have been revised from that point....
THE FACT IS..........regardless of our little penny ante posts.........the bump wasnt the greatest of all times like the left was looking for and that needs no link

These quick popularity boosts don't always mean much.

So Obama should have gotten around 10 points, but he didn't, but that's okay cuz it doesn't mean anything...

I think the selection of Palin stole some of Sen. Obama's thunder, otherwise I think it would have been a larger, but just as temporary bounce. Great strategy by McCain (or who ever planned this). Instead of people talking all weekend about Sen. Obama's speech, the MSM had to devote a great deal of time to McCain's VP selection. And good or bad, she's still in the news, and people barely even remember Obama spoke last week, thus the small bounce.

BUT ONNA>........we all know polls dont mean anything.........remember that in the afternoon of november in 2004 the left wing media was just about to declare kerry the winner.
but if you take that kind of attitude, then how can we go back and forth here.........dont take all the fun out of it..........LOL

kerry the winner - wasn't a poll, was mistaken exit querys

Walmart's Hannah Montana 3D Concert was really succesful, she drew 22 million viewers, Walmart gave out 25 million of free 3D glasses

Obama's acceptance speech drew 38 million viewers

McCain's acceptance speech will draw ______ viewers

do you think that this may suggest a winner?

so Palin's taking McCain off message is brilliant, is it?

ah relax.......the point is....if they didnt do polls and shit like that.....you might actually have to JUST WORK today.............just kidding

"so Palin's taking McCain off message is brilliant, is it?"

In a way, when you consider McCain's "message" is I'm really not Bush; please ignore the fact I vote that way 90% of the time.

WOW, a 3pt bounce!!!

"I think the selection of Palin stole some of Sen. Obama's thunder, otherwise I think it would have been a larger, but just as temporary bounce. Great strategy by McCain (or who ever planned this). Instead of people talking all weekend about Sen. Obama's speech, the MSM had to devote a great deal of time to McCain's VP selection. And good or bad, she's still in the news, and people barely even remember Obama spoke last week, thus the small bounce."

#54 | Posted by jwil72

If Obama's campaign had done something similar, TonyRoma would be here gushing over the brilliance of Obama's campaign, and how his leadership in said campaign demonstrates that he is ready to be president.

"If Obama's campaign had done something similar, TonyRoma would be here gushing over the brilliance of Obama's campaign..."

#61 | Posted by LIVE_OR_DIE

He said it was a great strategy on McCain's part. What do you want?

great strategy on McCain's part, instead of covering key issues McCain can wiggle out and discusss Palin's pregant daughter, Bridge to nowhere, pork spending, etc, brilliant move isn't it, engergize the wingnuts but no one else! what a way to bring no new votes to the table and call it smart! you can here Obama saying "I shoulda thot a dat"

***"great strategy on McCain's part, instead of covering key issues McCain can wiggle out and discusss Palin's pregant daughter, Bridge to nowhere, pork spending, etc, brilliant move isn't it, engergize the wingnuts but no one else! what a way to bring no new votes to the table and call it smart! you can here Obama saying "I shoulda thot a dat"***

Piss and moan all you want, but it was a great strategy. The move was intended to pull the spotlight away from Sen. Obama, so it soesn't really matter what Sen. McCain was talking about as long as it was McCain talking and not Obama. Here's the timeline: Obama makes great speech infront of 75,000 people. McCain gives it less than 24 hours to sink in, the media doesn't even get a full day to foam at the mouth about Obama being ready for office because this speech was so great (and it was a great speech). Next thing you know, McCain drops the bomb, and not just any bomb, a female, conservative, not bad looking bomb. I don't know for sure, but I would bet McCain/Palin got a hell of a lot more coverge this weekend than Obama/Biden. But you are right, I doubt it brought new voters to the table, but I bet some of those Hilary women are reconsidering their vote for Obama.

as McCain tries to get back on message todays AP Headline says "McCain vetter defends Palin review"

when will this distraction end? Yes, "...got a hell of a lot more coverge this weekend than Obama/Biden", what kind of coverage?

Selecting Palin, What a brilliant move by McCain!

5 polls:

Obama +6 +7 +8 +8 +9

You call it the Clinton News Network, I call it the Conservative News Network.

Freepers call it the Communist News Netwrok.

Spud calls it the Corporate News Network.

Cos that's wot it is.

Wot they all are past a certain size.

Spud FTW!

/On Topic?

Obama got bounce?

Woo Hoo!

Now let's see the silly assed GOPhers shake their fur dry and try their hand at it.

Who's up tonight, Loserman?

Mr "No-mentum", hisself!

That'll be fun.

By which Spud means excruciatingly boring and predictable to watch but fun to poke fun at.

Be Well.

Yeah, yeah, like he do,
stage left.

but I bet some of those Hilary women are reconsidering their vote for Obama

McCain's handlers bet the farm that that was gonna be the case.

'Bad Bet' sez Spud.

Now he's sold the farm.

Be Well.

InTrade, a prediction market
noted for being more accurate than polls
predictions treated and traded as stock
current 61.2 % chance of Obama being elected
current 38.9 % chance of McCain being elected
current 14.4 % chance Palin will be dropped from the ticket

"but I bet some of those Hilary women are reconsidering their vote for Obama."

I think the more time that elapses the less likely that "Clintonistas" will switch to McCain because of Palin. Her positions of many issues of importance to women are already becoming too well known. Women aren't dumb, they aren't going to support Palin just because of her gender when she is diametrically opposed to most of the positions of Hilary Clinton.

"I bet some of those Hilary women are reconsidering their vote for Obama.

#64 | Posted by jwil72"

I think one of Hillary's supporters put it best on Larry King the other night when she said "Do Republicans really think we're going to vote for Palin just because she has the same body parts we do?"

I would like to ask the very inteligent liberals, DANNI, SANOBAMA and AERICANUNITY.

I came across several women talking about an organization called "HORRIFIED".They said their membership was increasing and had about two million in the bank. I asked a friend (liberal) about "HORRIFIED". He said it was probably a spin off from the Soros political organization supporting Obama. Can you enlighten me.

"Can you enlighten me.

#72 | Posted by ozzieoswald"

I'm just a man, not a miracle worker.

OZZIE

Don't have a clue. I've mostly been studying up on candidate's positions in the issues, and more recently on McCain's reckless pick of Palin. Hard not to. All over the news....

Well, maybe you liberals aren't as informed as you like people to think. I'll try and find some libs that know what is going on. You people get back to bashing Palin. I'm sure it makes you feel better.

It makes them feel better as they have no life themselves. They are so small that they actually think their bogs make a fucking difference.

Quit blogging and get outside and do SOMETHING to change things.

Quit blogging and get outside and do SOMETHING to change things.

Posted by 08r4ever

I've been doing just that for almost two years as an Obama volunteer. Trying to do what I can to help undo the tragedy of the Bush presidency.

BTW, welcome back from your...uh...'vacation'.

Palin's effect:
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30 through Sept. 1, finds Barack Obama leading the race for president with his highest share of support to date. Fully half of national registered voters now favor Obama 50% for president, while 42% back John McCain.
good choice McCain!

After Palin:
Gallup Obama 50 / McCain 42
Rasmussen Obama 51 / McCain 45
CBS News Obama 48 / McCain 40

3 point bounce for Obama since Palin announced.
Yay John!

Not that I think it means much this far out but it's where I go for my bounce.

AU: "I've been doing just that for almost two years as an Obama volunteer. Trying to do what I can to help undo the tragedy of the Bush presidency."

Let me nominate you for another gold bumper sticker. Did I ever tell you about the time I helped a few older ladies up the stairs of our local church back in '04 so they could vote against Kerry? Good times, good times! I think I better "volunteer" again so you can spend the next four years being the bestest grassiest rootiest person RED TENNESSEE has to offer.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

NEOCON

You're welcome to think my volunteer activities have been limited to Tennessee if you want to, but you'd be wrong. Very wrong.

well AU ole buddy now you have gotten the same treatment that I get when I talk about walking streets and working for the republicans......
and the truth is that we are the grassroots and its just a damn good thing that I am much more effective than you are.............LOL

again to repeat yesterday.

we can argue all day about the size of the bumb but it was NO WHERE NEAR The gigantic swell that dems were looking for and expecting........

"size of the bumb but it was NO WHERE NEAR"
OK, let's compare tv audience size for McCain on Thursday against Obama, and Palin against Biden.

do you think that may project the winner, or Messiah complex, or be underplayed?

I always take political polls with a grain of salt. Due to their small sample size, I think the week-to-week fluctuation that we see is simply the result of the variations in the samples used as well as methodological differences between polling outfits.

All we're really seeing is a variation within the margins of error caused by the vagaries of sampling/sampling bias. These polls would be much more useful if they indicated their confidence intervals.

To summarize every poll from the last three months... 45% for Obama and 45% for McCain, with the remaining 10% trending towards Obama. With so many variables to take into account, there is no way to honesty derive anything more than this based on a poll with a sample size of 2,000 for 150 million voters.