In several ways, recent news has been good to Clinton. She continues to win in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania where there are large numbers of white working-class voters. Arguably, her coalition of white working-class and Hispanic voters is equal to Obama's coalition of white-collar and African-American voters. Obama has been on the defensive lately, dealing with the continuing problem of his former pastor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, and trying to explain his own comments that "bitter" blue-collar workers often "cling" to religion and guns instead of voting their economic interests. These two episodes--the Reverend Wright fiasco and "bitter-gate"--have revealed some chinks in Obama's armor.

But the problem for Clinton is that Obama has a clear lead in delegates and that, short of a sudden Obama collapse, there are not enough delegates left for her to pull even, never mind pull into the lead.

Here is the math. There are 4,048 total delegates. You need 2,025 to win the nomination. Of those delegates, about 80 percent are selected in primaries and caucuses by voters, and 20 percent are the so-called superdelegates--party leaders and elected officials who get to vote by virtue of their position. As of today, Clinton and Obama are almost tied in endorsements by superdelegates, but Obama holds a lead in the elected delegates. Using the New York Times's count, Obama has 1,735 delegates (a combined total of elected delegates and superdelegates) to Clinton's 1,601.

Looking ahead, there are eight contests in states or territories which will select about 400 delegates by June 3. There are also around 250 uncommitted superdelegates. The most likely scenario is that Clinton and Obama will split the remaining 400 elected delegates equally. North Carolina is likely to go for Obama. Indiana and West Virginia favor Clinton and, added together, they have nearly the same number of delegates as North Carolina. Later in May, you have Kentucky (51 delegates), which favors Clinton, and Oregon (52 delegates), which favors Obama. Puerto Rico is likely to go for Clinton, but Obama is likely to win the last two western states, Montana and South Dakota (so far, he has won all of the mountain and plains states).

If we assume a 50-50 split of these delegates, then Obama will be at 1,935 and Clinton at 1,801. Obama will only need the support of about one-quarter of the remaining superdelegates to get the nomination. These superdelegates are likely to move in Obama's direction as long as he maintains his lead.

Oh yeah? Well, we'll see....once that sniper fire dies down we're having a Florida recount!

-Quacky McCork.

Hillary Clinton can change her message, change her campaign manager, even change her hairstyle--but she can't change the delegate math that makes it almost impossible for her to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

During the first part of her speech tonight, I thought she was changing her style to Obama-Lite. Anybody else here echoes of the speech Obama made earlier?

During the first part of her speech tonight, I thought she was changing her style to Obama-Lite. Anybody else here echoes of the speech Obama made earlier?

The amorphous blob that is Hillary Clinton has shamelessly stolen sound byte, platforms, slogans, and rhetoric from Obama from the get-go of this campaign.

Spud indeed noticed the "Obama-lite" aspect to Hillary's 2% Victory speech that evening but merely thought it was a continuation of her earlier machine pol/focus grouped style of "say/steal anything politics.

She wishes to be all things to all people and thus it's impossible to tell wot she's really like.

Her and McCain remind Spud of a pair of Hollywood breasts.

They are both boobs and they are both fake.

Do. Not. Want.

Be Well.