CBO Outlook For 2012-2022 Real Unemployment Rate Is 10%

Inaccurate headline flag.

Come on...are you sure you're upset about the headline and not the facts the article show you?

#2 | Posted by KBM at 2012-02-01 02:13 PM

You didn't read the article.

#1 | Posted by DARTHCHENEY at 2012-02-01 01:05 PM | Reply | Flag:

I shortened the headline from the article. Dispute the facts in the article.

Dispute the facts in the article.

#4 | Posted by ExpsRedemption at 2012-02-01 03:32 PM

The article has no facts. It only references the CBO report to claim how inaccurate it is:

2012 Deficit: $1.1 trillion; 2013 Deficit: $0.6 - yes, we are cackling like mad too...
Unemployment to remain above 8% in 2012 and 2013; will be around 7% by end of 2015; to drop to 5.25% by end of 2022.
This forecast is utterly idiotic and is completely unattainable unless the US workforce drops to all time lows and the US economy generates 300,000 jobs a month for 10 years
Needless to say, CBO assumes the best of all worlds in this meaningless forecast
But here is the kicker: "Had that portion of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 that is attributable to neither the aging of the baby boomers nor the downturn in the business cycle (on the basis of the experience in previous downturns) not occurred, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2011 would have been about 1¼ percentage points higher than the actual rate of 8.7 percent" translation: CBO just admitted that the BLS numbers are bogus and real unemployment is 10%. Thank you

From the asinine editorializing of the author of this 'piece' you can see that all this story does is shit on the CBO's report then proceed to cherry pick data to come to a forced conclusion.
This apparently has become the standard of journalism for the despondent and desperate right. This can be surmised by how often 'zerohedge.com' is linked by the DR's geriatric right.

#5 | Posted by DARTHCHENEY

Your view of the CBO data is? Remember we are expecting some "cherry pick data".

#6 | Posted by paneocon at 2012-02-01 04:20 PM

From the CBO, minus the asinine editorializing:

Unemployment to remain above 8% in 2012 and 2013; will be around 7% by end of 2015; to drop to 5.25% by end of 2022.

CBO The Budget and Economic Outlook:
Fiscal Years
2012 to 2022

(page 35)
In CBO's forecast, the unemployment rate in 2012 and 2013 remains largely unchanged from its value last year.15 However, in the forecast, as growth picks up after 2013, the unemployment rate falls to 6.9 percent by the end of 2015 and 5.6 percent by the end of 2017 (see Figure 2-6). According to the agency's projections, the growth of wages and salaries will remain modest through 2017, and-owing largely to demographic factors-the rate of participation in the labor force will fall by about 1 percentage point by 2017.16

CBO The Budget and Economic Outlook:
Fiscal Years
2012 to 2022
(page 36/37)

Had that portion of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 that is attributable to neither the aging of the baby boomers nor the downturn in the business cycle (on the basis of the experience in previous downturns) not occurred, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2011 would have been about 1 1/4 percentage points higher than the actual rate of 8.7 percent

#9 | Posted by paneocon at 2012-02-01 05:00 PM

So according to the CBO, once again:

Unemployment to remain above 8% in 2012 and 2013; will be around 7% by end of 2015; to drop to 5.25% by end of 2022.

Conclusion:

Inaccurate headline flag.

#10 | Posted by DARTHCHENEY

Current unemployment 8.5% plus 1.25% equals 10%

accurate headline flag

Nice try, work on that remedial reading and math thing

#10 | Posted by DARTHCHENEY at 2012-02-01 05:02 PM | Reply | Flag:

Really? That is all you grasp from it? If the labor force participation had not dropped (this means people still unemployed but no longer looking) unemployment would be around 10%.

I guess all those drops in unemployment were fiction. You bought them.

Nice try, work on that remedial reading and math thing

#11 | Posted by paneocon at 2012-02-01 05:14 PM | Reply | Flag:

Well... you might have to work on the math thing as well. 8.5 + 1.25 = 9.75.

If we went by the 8.7 mentioned in the article and added 1.25 it would be 9.95 which would be close enough to be 10%.

"Current unemployment 8.5% plus 1.25% equals 10% "

That assumes every one of those 1.25% wants to be employed. You don't have any proof of that.

#11 | Posted by paneocon at 2012-02-01 05:14 PM

The CBO does not make that claim plus,

#14 - That assumes every one of those 1.25% wants to be employed. You don't have any proof of that.

I can't believe you can't make the distinction between what the CBO claims and what your interpretations of those claims is. The author of this 'piece' and the silly OP couldn't make that distinction either, so once again:

Inaccurate headline flag.

That assumes every one of those 1.25% wants to be employed. You don't have any proof of that.
* * * *

That's true. They might be Democrats.

"That's true. They might be Democrats."

Exactly my point.