Drudge Retort: Red Meat for Yellow Dogs
Monday, January 04, 2010

Initial reports of the suicide bombing on a CIA base in Afghanistan last week which killed 7 CIA officers described the assassin as a member of the Afghan National Army. But Western intelligence officials tell NBC News the killings were carried out by a Jordanian doctor who was an al-Qaida double agent.

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Doc_Sarvis

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I listened to NBC's Richard Engel talking about the story this morning and one of the major points he hammered home with this: The double-agent said he had important info on Ayman al-Zawahari and, as a result, the people who gathered together to hear what he had to say (and got killed by the blast for doing so) were key players in the ongoing cat-and-mouse business of trying to locate Zawahari and take him out.

#1 | Posted by Doc_Sarvis

So in addition to tragic, it was senseless. Intelligence?

Not senseless if you happen to be Ayman al-Zawahari. But from the US perspective? Probabably hellishly damaging as well.

not very intellegent i would say

That would appear to be the case, George.

Not senseless if you happen to be Ayman al-Zawahari.-- #3 | Posted by Doc_Sarvis

"Senseless" as in easily prevented, b/c it was just mind-bogglingly stupid on the part of the CIA.

The problem with any ongoing conflict is that every so often the other guys do land a blow. Doesn't mean we are necessarily doing anything particularly right or wrong, - just the nature of armed conflict.

Doesn't mean we are necessarily doing anything particularly right or wrong... -- #7 | Posted by moder8

Did you read Doc's #1?

Yep. So? We are trying to get one of the bad guys. In response, the bad guys use a double agent to blow up a bunch of our good guys. That is my point. This is a prolonged conflict. The other side will land some blows in the process.

"The double-agent said he had important info on Ayman al-Zawahari and, as a result, the people who gathered together to hear what he had to say (and got killed by the blast for doing so) were key players in the ongoing cat-and-mouse business of trying to locate Zawahari and take him out."

Very dangerous people hatched that (successful) plot.

Does anyone think the "Xmas Bomber" and his cohorts are in the same threat class?

I hope not.

Did you read Doc's #1? -- #8 | Posted by Phoenix

Yep. So? -- #9 | Posted by moder8

The guy had been arrested as a jihadist only a year earlier.

I can't take more than 3 oz of hand lotion on an airplane, but he can bring explosives into a room with 7 CIA officers?

Isn't the CIA supposed to know when someone is a double agent?

We did it with the Russians all the time--right?

And where are our double-double agents?

Touche'

"The Jordanians believed that al-Balawi had been successfully reformed and brought over to the American and Jordanian side."

That was the first mistake. The second was for US intelligence to believe the Jordanians that the good doctor was reformed.

Third mistake was for anyone to foolishly believe that any al queda sympathizer could be reformed.

Many lessons to be learned from this attack.

Send in 007. Sean Connery. I have dibs on the screenplay.

I thought Stallone cleaned up Afghanistan decades ago?

The good news: Desiree Rogers was recently reassigned.

The bad news? ...

The bad news says Desiree is just a wall flower and not reassigned--just yet anyway..

blackpoliticalbuzz.blogspot.co
m

This would be easily avoided if we compartmentalized our operations the way Al-Qaeda have apparently compartmentalized theirs. It's simply unnecessary for eight people to meet with you to receive "urgent information."

They got played for fools. I wonder if dude had any choice words before he blowed himself up. You'd think there would have been a tape recorder running... though whether it survived the blast is another story.

"Live by the sword, die by the sword."

Isn't the CIA supposed to know when someone is a double agent?

#12 | Posted by MURPHY at 2010-01-04 08:12 PM | Reply | Flag: Startlingly Naive

The guy had been arrested as a jihadist only a year earlier.

I can't take more than 3 oz of hand lotion on an airplane, but he can bring explosives into a room with 7 CIA officers?

#11 | Posted by Phoenix

A heaping helping of THIS please.

Some kind of review resulting in the upgrading of security procedures is well in order here.

Be Well.

If you remember the AQ who tried to blow up a saudi prince with the suppository bomb.....he used the same technique.

He lured the prince is saying he AQ and could provide useful info. He fed him some intelligence. Then he set up the 'big meet' where he was going to give him fresh info against AQ. That's when his suppository blew up.

I have read an Isreal web site that said he was wearing a underwear bomb, not a 'dildo'. Who knows about the latest......Anyway we are not learning from these experiences, AQ is.

Remember the Massoud killing, with 2 "journalists," one with an exploding camera?

Anyway, further on the story from this morning's NYT:

The suicide bomber who killed seven C.I.A. officers and a Jordanian spy last week was a double agent who was taken onto the base in Afghanistan because the Americans hoped he might be able to deliver top members of Al Qaeda's network, according to Western government officials.

The bomber had been recruited by the Jordanian intelligence service and taken to Afghanistan to infiltrate Al Qaeda by posing as a foreign jihadi, the officials said.

But in a deadly turnabout, the supposed informant strapped explosives to his body and blew himself up at a meeting Wednesday at the C.I.A.'s Forward Operating Base Chapman in the southeastern province of Khost.

The attack at the C.I.A. base dealt a devastating blow to the spy agency's operations against militants in the remote mountains of Afghanistan, eliminating an elite team using an informant with strong jihadi credentials. The attack further delayed hope of penetrating Al Qaeda's upper ranks, and also seemed potent evidence of militants' ability to strike back against their American pursuers.
www.nytimes.com

Some points made in the NYT article:

1. The attack "could also jeopardize relations between the C.I.A. and the Jordanian spy service, which officials said had vouched for the would-be informant."

2. "The bomber was not closely searched because of his perceived value as someone who could lead American forces to senior Qaeda leaders, and because the Jordanian intelligence officer had identified him as a potentially valuable informant...."

3. "...the fact that militants could carry out a successful attack using a double agent showed their strength even after a steady barrage of missile strikes fired by C.I.A. drone aircraft."

The BBC has a story (news.bbc.co.uk) that summarizes the information known thus far about the bombing and also delves into a report by Maj. Gen. Michael Flynn -- described as "the top US military intelligence officer in Afghanistan" -- that rips the American intel efforts in-country. Flynn writes US intelligence is still "unable to answer fundamental questions about the environment in which US and allied forces operate and the people they are trying to protect and persuade."

The story links to a summary of Gen. Flynn's report, a coauthored paper titled "Fixing Intel A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan" (www.cnas.org) with a link for downloading the PDF (www.cnas.org). Flynn and his coauthors appear to have written for the Center for a New American Security.

Finally, Mark Mardell, the BBC's North America editor, contributes his take on the Flynn et. al. report in "A Damning View of US Intelligence in Afghanistan" (www.bbc.co.uk). From Mardell's piece:

[Flynn's report is extraordinary], for the level of scorn at the failure of his own service, American military intelligence, in Afghanistan over the last eight years: journalistic cliches like "damning" and "scathing" spring to mind.

But it is also extraordinary because this is not the leak of a high confidential memo meant for the eyes of four star generals and top politicians: it is published openly by a think tank, the centre for a New American Security. Remember this is not by an ex-CIA officer a policy wonk, but a serving officer, General McCrystal's senior intelligence officer. He says he's done it this way so as many people as possible read his words.

Many operatives in the field may choke on their rations when they see what Major General Flynn has to say. He says "the vast intelligence apparatus is unable to answer fundamental questions about the environment in which US and allied forces operate and the people they seek to persuade. Ignorant of local economics and landowners, hazy about who the powerbrokers are and how they might be influenced, incurious about the correlations between various development projects and the levels of cooperation among villagers, and disengaged from people in the best position to find answers".

His basic argument isn't that they are all rubbish at the job, but that they are doing the wrong sort of job. Too focused on the enemy, on detailed analysis of road side bombs and on giving power point presentations to the most senior officers. Not able to see and, more importantly, tell the big picture of the country they are in. He urges them to get out of headquarters, work with soldiers on the ground, talk to people and act more like journalists, as well as historian and librarians. Interestingly he says that 90% of intelligence work these days is what he calls "open source", and quotes a former head of intelligence saying that the job should be more Sherlock Holmes than James Bond.

He says a single-minded obsession with IEDs (roadside bombs to you and me) is understandable but inexcusable if local commanders can't outsmart insurgents as a result and concludes "the intelligence community - the brains behind the bullish might of military forces - seems much too mesmerized by the red of the Taliban's cape. If this does not change, success in Afghanistan will depend on the dubious premise that a bull will not tire as quickly as a Russian bear". This is part of the argument between "counter terrorism" and "counter insurgency" and it is slightly horrifying if American intelligence hasn't been routinely doing the sort of analysis he suggests (I am pretty certain British intelligence sees this as fundamental), but if I was out there I would still want operatives who knew about nasty devices lurking in the ditches.

You can't force a government on people who don't want it unless you ware willing to exterminate and torture large numbers of them publicly. We have no business trying to build a government in Afghanistan with people who don't like us and who we can't trust.

Tx for the articles discussing the Flynn report, Doc.

From an AP update -- www.chron.com :

...one of the big unanswered questions is why so many people were present for the debriefing the interview of the source when the explosive was detonated.

A half-dozen former CIA officers told The Associated Press that in most cases, only one or two agency officers would typically meet with a possible informant along with an interpreter. Such small meetings would normally be used to limit the danger and the possible exposure of the identities of both officers and informants.

Pinning this on Jordan seems like weaselly scapegoating for the CIA's security failure. Try to evade security at the airport or in a U.S. courthouse by claiming someone vouched for you. Also, the Jordanian agent responsible for "vouching" for bringing the bomber in as an informant was also killed in the bombing, and is a relative of Jordan's King Abdullah II. From the same article:
The Taliban's Yacoub said the Jordanian intelligence officer, bin Zaid, was helping the CIA recruit agents to spy on al-Qaida in Afghanistan. Bin Zaid allegedly recruited the suicide bomber.

Jordan's state news agency Petra identified bin Zaid as an army officer on a humanitarian mission in Afghanistan. It said he was killed Wednesday evening "as a martyr while performing the sacred duty of the Jordanian forces in Afghanistan." It did not provide other details.

The Jordanian military released a brief statement acknowledging bin Zaid had been killed in Afghanistan, but it did not mention he was working with Jordanian intelligence or cooperating with the CIA.

Bin Zaid's family declined to comment.

Bin Zaid is known to be a relative of Jordan's King Abdullah II. He held the title of sharif, or nobleman, which was bestowed upon him by the Jordanian monarch.

King Abdullah and other members of the royal family received Bin Zaid's body, which was repatriated Saturday in a private ceremony. His wake was held in the Royal Palace.

TY fer the updates Doc and Phoenix.

Here's a weird one wot Spud just caught whilst skurfin' fer newz.

Apparently the CIA bomber guy was a triple agent.

...and a Blogger.

trueslant.com

FTA: In a bizarre twist, the suicide bomber who killed eight people at a CIA base in Afghanistan may have been a blogger and internet bulletin board admin.

Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi, a 36-year-old doctor from Jordan, was also apparently a triple agent who "duped Western intelligence services for months before turning on his handlers."

But first, the blogging and computer nerdery.

It appears al-Balawi, writing under the nom-de-plume Abu Dujanah al-Khurasani, ran the extremely popular jihdaist bulletin board al-Hesbah. Among al-Hesbah's many users, some were people connected to the London tube bombers and others high-ranking al-Qaeda members.

Al-Balawi/al-Khurasani was also a prolific blogger URL abudujanakharasani.maktoobblog
.com who, apparently, liked to daydream about a future caliphate:

The article continues with his his fanzine-quality flight of fanatic fantasy.

A Muslim utupia to him that most civilized folk would view as a dystopia.

Best line in the piece?

The face of Islamist terrorism apparently is this: A 36-year-old doctor posting about future dystopias on internet forums in his free time. He could just as easily have been a Trekkie.

Except blowing yer own ass up kinda defeats the whole idear of "Live Long and Prosper" don't it?

Be Well.

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