1. Enthusiasm. (Too ignorant to see that she is only the flavor of the month)
2. 2010. (repubs will pick ups seats. there are a few turds in the dems that need to be flushed, like pelosi and reid.)
3. The other candidates are flawed. (we'll foget about that little resigning the gov thingey, and those temporary lapses of even an average intelligence)
4. The other candidates might not run. (that always makes it easier to win)
5. The media will be rooting for her. (like romans at a gladiator tournament)
6. She's tough to campaign against. (this guy needs to find a different campaign manager)
7. There are virtually no moderates left in the Republican base. (right, like sarah is moderate. she's moderate if you're ghingus khan, maybe)
8. Attempts by the Republican Establishment to neuter her may backfire. (yea, you just wait till she pulls out that super-charged intellect, any day now, you just wait.)
9. Parties tend to nominate more extreme candidates in elections against incumbents. (yes, because otherwise no sane person would ever elect them).
10. She gets new media; new media gets her. (when you skin a salmon in the evening, your hands smell like shit the next day).
The only one that has any validity at all is #9. It's a close race between a disliked incumbent and an incompetent challenger.