The explanation for Pakistan's decision lies in the country's internal stresses and Quetta's ethnic makeup. Quetta is the capital of Baluchistan, Pakistan's largest province. As in neighboring Iran, the Baluchi tribes resent rule by central government, and Baluchistan has been the locus of several bloody revolts (in 1948, 1958, 196369, and 197377) against central-government rule. (These revolts are of course blamed almost entirely on India, which almost certainly has aided Baluchi rebels in retaliation for Pakistani sponsorship of insurgents in Kashmir and terrorists in other parts of India.)
Baluchi revolts have been suppressed by the Pakistani armed forces with a thoroughness and ruthlessness that might surprise anyone who witnessed their efforts in the NorthWest Frontier and even in Swat. During the reign of Bhutto pre, a favorite of foreign liberals, Iranian-supplied helicopter gunships were used to murderous effect against the Baluchi tribes.
Pakistan is absolutely determined to keep Baluchi separatism down, not least because the province is rich in resources, with vast reserves of copper, and because Pakistan has persuaded its Chinese ally to build a huge new deep-water port at Gwadar. The Pashtuns of the province have generally opposed the idea of Baluchi independence. For this reason, Islamabad may be happy to further dilute the population of Baluchistan with Pashtuns, such as the Afghan refugees in the camps and Mullah Omar's troops.
Too often in the past, U.S. officials have failed to understand that such domestic imperatives and Pakistan's ongoing obsession with India are the things that really determine Islamabad's relationship with the Taliban. However, the briefings that the U.S. government has given to the Washington Post, announcing the "new haven" in Quetta, may be an encouraging signal that something is changing in Washington's approach to Pakistan. Dropping the pretense that we know nothing of Mullah Omar's safe haven in Quetta could even mean that the new "Af-Pak" strategy outlined by General McCrystal is already being adopted, at least in part, and that the old disingenuousness about Pakistan's role in terrorism and subversion in Afghanistan is about to fall away.
(For years it has driven our Afghan allies crazy that we invite the Pakistani military to "tripartite commission" talks on Afghan security with Afghan and NATO forces, even though everyone knows that Pakistani officers have fought and even been killed alongside Taliban officers, just as they fought and were killed alongside the anti-Soviet mujahedeen.)
The fact that America in the form of the anonymous "U.S. officials" quoted in the Washington Post is going public about the Taliban (and likely al-Qaeda) sanctuary in Quetta could be a warning to Pakistan and the world that the Predators will come and it will no longer be such a safe haven. After all, if Mullah Omar and Co. no longer feel safe, they are more likely to come to the table and to come in desperation, rather than as victors.
corner.nationalreview.com
