What are the odds?

"What are the odds?"

#1 | Posted by American1st at 2009-09-17 01:16 PM | Reply | Flag: Didn't read the article.

"The chance of the same numbers appearing were one in four million"

How about this for the plot of a movie:

In country after country, the same lottery numbers are drawn consecutively triggering an investigation. The investigation uncovers an encoded message in the pattter of the numbers. The message could be from an advanced extraterrestrial civilization attempting to make contact with Earth.

LOL! Ya got me there....

Sounds good, Member...who ya casting as the lead?

who ya casting as the lead?

The number "3".

Earnhardt? He's dead, ya know...

Maybe they found a mathematician that said that to humor the reporter, but I don't believe that he could really say what were the chances for the same numbers to appear other than that it would be the same as the chance for any six numbers to appear. What happened before has no impact on what happens later. If you flipped heads three times in a row what would be the chances for heads or tails on the next flip?

If you flipped heads three times in a row what would be the chances for heads or tails on the next flip?

#8 | Posted by grumpy_too

As I understand probability the odds are the same every time.

in other words how could what you just got on the last flip actually affect what you will get next time? It just "seems" like it should.

That's why Vegas makes money.

Or how.
Or something.

This thread reminds me of Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead.

Tennis, anyone?

"If you flipped heads three times in a row what would be the chances for heads or tails on the next flip?"

50-50.

That's fishy. What are the odds? I mean it would be 1 in zillions the same as an unqualified black man who no one even heard of 4 years ago becoming president of the united states. Oh wait. That happened. Oh well maybe the lotto draw was dumb luck.

No one won the first time, but 18 won the second time? I'd love to analyze the tapes to see if the second one was an edited copy.

Since a "machine" picked the numbers maybe there is something wrong with the machine or someone rigged the machine. If it was rigged maybe people who had the correct numbers on their ticket should be checked out.

It was just as likely to come up the second time as any other set of numbers.

This thread reminds me of Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead.

#13 | Posted by Hagbard_Celine

This threads reminds me of Lost. Don't anyone play those evil numbers or the world will be destroyed by a huge disturbance in the magnetic field!

Gwad, how much longer till that show starts up again!

"maybe there is something wrong with the machine or someone rigged the machine."

Does ACORN operate a branch office in Bulgaria?

Phew, for a second there I thought the numbers were 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, and 42.

that is fucking fishy

I suppose they've checked into the possibility that it wasn't just a rebroadcast...

#20I never watched that show. One of my sons and one of my brothers watches it though and loves it. I think I'll try and catch it this season.

On topic:

There has to be something crooked going on.

Playing solitaire once I flipped a 6 0f hearts 12 times in a row first flip.
Out of 20,all sixes first flip before it broke.
Out of 20,14 hearts.
I changed my shuffle pattern.I would be ready to flip a card, split the deck,flip 6 of hearts no matter what. Take the top card put it on the bottom,6 of hearts.Split the deck 4x's, shuffle,flip 6 of hearts.
I actually broke a little sweat wondering WTF is going on here.
I think I witnessed some amazing odds that day.

rwd

FROM THE ARTICLE: "But a record 18 people guessed all six numbers in the 10 September draw"

What kind of nimrod chooses the winning numbers from last week to play in this weeks lottery???

"Each will win 10,164 leva (5,196 euros; $7,643)"

What kind of shitty lottery is that; $7500 for getting all of the numbers right??? I don't even waste the buck if it's under ten million...

Hey Capt???

They won two weeks in a row didn't they??

Not so nimroddish then, is it? :)

Nimroddish...I love making up words!

Lisa, Lost is not the type of show you just pick up on any random season. If you are going to start watching it, I would humbly recommend you rent on DVD the previous seasons. Otherwise you will be, well, lost. It is a very complicated show to follow.

Thanks for the tip, Member.

I suppose they've checked into the possibility that it wasn't just a rebroadcast...

#24 | Posted by BobSF_94117

It's Bulgaria, not Poland.

I wouldn't be suspicious unless the same six numbers showed up six times in a row.

Non Doubting Thom

"If you flipped heads three times in a row what would be the chances for heads or tails on the next flip?"
50-50.

#15 | POSTED BY DANFORTH AT 2009-09-18 04:21 PM | REPLY | FLAG:

you forgot landing on edge.

that is a legitimate possibility, although a highly unlikely one.

If you like polls, statistics and what not
Check out this book

"you forgot landing on edge. "

I was rounding.

#27 | POSTED BY CAPT_OF_URANUS AT 2009-09-18 08:53 PM | REPLY | FLAG:

Also, due to economic theory, you should hold out until the jackpot is over 30 million. Something to do with opportunity cost. I dont remember all of the particulars. I just remember it was 30 Million in the jackpot that makes it a worth while bet.

I know, i was just kidding.
In all seriousness though the way probability works is often terribly misunderstood. The book i linked is really pretty good at breaking the concepts down into manageable chunks.