I thought this was the dumbest shit ever[Joe the Plumber].....That said, I still think there is a good chance McCain wins. Not hoping for it, just thinking there's a good chance....#27 | Posted by Sully
Agreed about Joe but though you can never say never, the Irish bookmaker has it about right.
The boring detail -- chances of any significant change, very small.
Obama needs 270 electoral votes to win.
He has 255 from states he is projected 98%-100% certain to win(mostly 100%). They are MA, CT, ME, RI, VT, PA, MI, IL, WI, MN, IA, NY, NJ, MD, DC, DE, CA, WA, OR, HI.
Add another 32 for states he is projected 90%-95% certain to win, NH, VA, CO, NM and he has 287.
Even take away Virginia and New Hampshire which I guess you could make some sort of case for and he has a tie at 269. He wins a tie because Dems will control Congress. Republicans could bitch all they like(and they would) but after Florida 2000 nobody else will agree with them.
Florida and Ohio with a further 47 votes between them don't even matter and Obama is a significant favorite in both of them. Forget about North Carolina and Indiana too(26 votes) which McCain should be winning easily but isn't, they don't matter either. There's one or two other red states where McCain should be winning even more easily but may well lose too.
In other words it's far, far more likely that Obama will get 350-400 electoral votes than McCain will somehow squeeze out 270.
Game over. But McCain will win Oklahoma and Utah and the other usual suspects.
www.fivethirtyeight.com