And here:

This chart indicates that Clinton's statewide strength in the swing GOP states is not illusory. It also underscores a point made yesterday: Obama has done better west of the Mississippi River. Of the seven states below the average for all swing counties, five them fall at least partially on the western side of the Mississippi. Only one of the eight states above Clinton's average share falls (partially) on the western side of the Mississippi. That is Louisiana, where about 72% of Obama's total vote was African American.

The inference I draw from this is the following.

Bill Clinton forged a winning voting coalition in the 1990s that harkened back to the coalition that Jimmy Carter created in 1976. It was built in large part on the border states and the states of the industrial Midwest. George W. Bush was able to slice off a large portion of this coalition, which is why he won the White House for the GOP. Between 1996 and 2004 - he flipped more than 400 counties in these 15 states.

Based upon these results, it seems that Clinton is better positioned than Obama to flip these counties back to the Democratic column. The basis of this inference is that Democratic voters in those counties seem to widely prefer Clinton over Obama.

We can take this as a limited indication that voters in these areas would also be more partial. This is not to say that Obama will be unable to win the (Bill) Clinton coalition, only to say that (Hillary) Clinton appears more able to. Remember, the value of the primaries is not that they divulge absolute general election strength, but relative strength.

www.realclearpolitics.com

Some folks seem to think that the old coalitions and traditional red/blue state status quo are going to be changing this time around...

www.usatoday.com

New swing states pop up in '08

By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON -- The sharp red and blue boundaries that have defined political America for a decade could be blurring.

As Barack Obama moves toward claiming the Democratic presidential nomination, he and presumptive Republican nominee John McCain are devising strategies that challenge long-held assumptions about what states each party targets to reach 270 Electoral College votes, the number needed to win the White House...

... Some of the customary bets are off because of demographic trends, the national mood and the particular strengths and weaknesses of the candidates likely to face off in November. "In a nutshell, the (electoral) map blew up and is lying in pieces on the floor," Budde says, "just waiting to be reconstructed."

DAY IN DELEGATES: OBAMA 2-1

The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1,649 to 1,500
SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 321.5 to 284.5
EDWARDS PL.: Obama 12 to 0
TOTAL: Obama 1,982.5 to 1,783.5

firstread.msnbc.msn.com

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Hillary's done. Majority of SDs are going for Obama. No amount of articles will change that.