The Top Ten List of Undisputed Facts Showing Barack Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain
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Corky
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Joined 2005/05/24Visited 2010/03/10
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"Obama's Sour "Apples to Apples" Barack Obama is hemmorhaging support against John McCain in states where Democrats can/should win in November. In the last six weeks, Barack Obama has been losing support, while Hillary Clinton has gained support, when matched against McCain. Much of Clinton's additional support is from voters who were undecided in late February, and Clinton essentially "split" the "recent deciders" with McCain; as a result there is little change in her margins against McCain. But people who were undecided whether they preferred Obama or McCain are also making up their minds and choosing McCain. As a result, Obama's margins against McCain are looking much worse. This is true among all major demographic categories that were available for comparison if Obama improves in a category, Clinton has shown greater improvement in that category. And in categories where Clinton is not doing as well as she was in February, Obama is doing consistently worse." "CONCLUSION Obama is tanking, while Clinton is holding her own. While these 9 states are not representative of all 50 states (no Mountain/Plains or Southern states), they do represent the states that Democrats have to win in order to take the White House. Obama's weakness in states like California and Massachusetts states that this year a Democrat should not have to be very concerned about, is worrisome. Even more alarming is what is happening in Missouri and (especially) Ohio Obama's loss of support in those states raise serious questions about his electability. The advantage in the "electability" argument that Obama held six weeks ago has vanished. Six weeks ago, Obama was doing significantly better than Clinton in these nine key states, now Clinton is doing better than Obama. And, as shall be seen in the next part of this series, Obama's problems exist across all key demographic groups. He's losing male and female support. He's losing White support, and losing support among "Independent" voters and "Moderates" as well, while Clinton is either increasing her support, or at least holding her own, in all these key demographics." excerpts www.correntewire.com
Posted by Corky at 2008-04-24 10:07 AM | Reply | Flag: Flag: (Choose)FunnyNewsworthyOffensiveAbusive
Oops. One of the undisputed "FACTS" is wrong. And it happens to be the most important one. Obama beats McCain by 1.8% while Clinton wins by .3% RCP average.
Posted by tigerbalm at 2008-04-24 10:58 AM | Reply | Flag: Flag: (Choose)FunnyNewsworthyOffensiveAbusive
For example, in the most recent USA Today national general election poll, Senator Clinton leads Senator McCain by +6; Senator Obama leads by less than the margin of error, +2. ---- Which was March 17th. Nice cherry picking. blogs.usatoday.com
Posted by Pirate at 2008-04-24 11:03 AM | Reply | Flag: Flag: (Choose)FunnyNewsworthyOffensiveAbusive
Wait...I stand possibly corrected? But this shows Obama over Mccain by 3 www.realclearpolitics.com
Posted by Pirate at 2008-04-24 11:08 AM | Reply | Flag: Flag: (Choose)FunnyNewsworthyOffensiveAbusive
But Tiger's got the info on the RCP average which the realclearpolitics link has.
Posted by Pirate at 2008-04-24 11:10 AM | Reply | Flag: Flag: (Choose)FunnyNewsworthyOffensiveAbusive
Average. As stated above.
Posted by tigerbalm at 2008-04-24 11:12 AM | Reply | Flag: Flag: (Choose)FunnyNewsworthyOffensiveAbusive
And exit polls in Penn showed Obama with plenty of the trailer vote.
Posted by tigerbalm at 2008-04-24 11:13 AM | Reply | Flag: Flag: (Choose)FunnyNewsworthyOffensiveAbusive
At the same time, Clinton's argument that she is more electable in the fall does not appear at this juncture to have support in national data; both she and Obama fare equally well when pitted in polling against McCain. www.gallup.com
Posted by Pirate at 2008-04-24 11:35 AM | Reply | Flag: Flag: (Choose)FunnyNewsworthyOffensiveAbusive
nice going, Pirate, you chased Porky away!
Posted by Jomama at 2008-04-24 03:20 PM | Reply | Flag: Flag: (Choose)FunnyNewsworthyOffensiveAbusive
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