Translation: "The economy is going to pretty much suck, but the sky isn't falling."

They were right last time, hopefully for us all UCLA will be right again.

And yes, as BillOfidian will be quick to point out, I am biased.

But I've been hearing that we were already there.

/last recession was in 1993

What does Chick Norris say?

Show this to your stock broker after you pay $4/gallon.

"Translation: "The economy is going to pretty much suck, but the sky isn't falling."

From your lips to God's ears, I sincerely hope that they and you are right. Though I have been fearing much worse news I see no benefit in not hoping UCLA will be right again. Who knows, we may just survive another year or two though I suspect that every year we do it pisses off the Ron Paul people even more.

To trust government statistics is like trusting a fox to count your chickens.

The reports on employment and unemployment are also critical economic statistics. For employment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS") has two surveys. The first is the Payroll Survey which queries businesses about how many people they employ. This survey has a special mirror called the BLS Birth/Death computer model. In February 2008, the computer model added 135,000 jobs to the total before seasonal adjustment. Without the computer model, February's payroll employment would have fallen by 198,000 jobs, not the reported drop of 63,000!

The second is the Household Survey. This survey is conducted by contacting people to inquire whether they are working, if they would like to be working, and when they last looked for work. (The Household Survey in February did show a sharp drop of 255,000 jobs). The unemployment rate is calculated using the Household Survey data, but magical "smoke and mirror" tricks are used to keep the unemployment rate down when it's reported to the public. An example would be last month, when the Household Survey dropped 644,000 people from the labor force. If these workers had remained in the work force, the unemployment rate would have jumped to 5.3 percent.

If you dig a little deeper, the Household Survey also shows 1.6 million people marginally attached to the labor force. In this case, the magical logic is "If you haven't looked for work in the past four weeks, you're not included as unemployed!" In other words, these workers are not just marginal, they're invisible!

Next, the employment numbers are bulked up. In February, there were 4.9 million part-time workers who would prefer working full-time. Again, the magical logic used is "if you worked an hour during the week, you're fully employed!" (See table below):

Without magic, the data above suggests that about nine percent of the labor force is really hurting on the employment front.

"US will avoid deep recession, Fed says

By Krishna Guha in Washington

Published: March 12 2008 21:06 | Last updated: March 12 2008 23:33

The US will avoid a severe and prolonged recession similar to Japan's in the 1990s because US policymakers will do whatever it takes to avert such an outcome, the Federal Reserve believes."

For the record, the Fed has never forecast a recession from the time of its existence.

Fuck UCLA.
Sincerely, Nancy Pel....nevermind.

I don't know of a single Ron Paul "person" that this news would piss off. The Ron Paul "people" are concerned about the long term economic strength and freedoms of fellow Americans.

March 12. Crude oil for April delivery hit $110 per barrel. The US dollar fell to a new low against the Euro. It now takes $1.55 to purchase one Euro.

These new highs against the dollar are the ongoing story of the collapse of the US dollar as world reserve currency and corresponding collapse of American power.

Each new decision from the insane Bush Regime pushes the dollar a little further along to oblivion. The same Fed announcement that boosted the stock market on March 11 sent the dollar reeling and the price of oil up. The Fed's announcement that it and other central banks are going to deal with the derivative crisis by monetizing $200 billion of the troubled instruments signaled more dollar inflation.

The bottom line: US power is enfeebled. US power depends on the willingness of foreigners to finance our wars and on the willingness of foreigners to continue to accumulate depreciating dollar assets.

The US cannot close its trade deficit. Oil prices are rising, and offshore production of goods and services for US markets results in a dollar-for-dollar increase in imports, while reducing the supply of domestic goods available for export

The US cannot close its budget deficit while it is squandering vast sums on wars that serve no US purpose, handing out $150 billion in red ink rebates, and falling into recession.

US living standards, which have been stagnant for years, will plummet once dollar decline forces China off the dollar peg. So far prices of the Chinese made goods on Wal-Mart shelves have not risen, because the Chinese currency, pegged to the dollar, falls in value with the dollar. In a word, tottering US living standards are being supported by China's willingness to subsidize US consumption by keeping its currency grossly undervalued.

The US is overextended economically and militarily, just as was Great Britain with the fall of France in the opening days of World War II. The British had the Americans to bail them out. After the chewing gum and bailing wire patch-ups are exhausted, who is going to bail us out?

excerpted from Paul Craig Roberts @ Counterpunch

Shirtsbyeric wrote,

"last recession was in 1993"

It seems as a democrat you forgot the recession that Clinton left us in in 2000!

Ray-

I read that article, and derivatives could be a real problem. However, the current market value is "only" 11 trillion, not the notional 516 trillion referenced by the article, which leads me to believe that the article is meant more for scare value then anything else.

Back on topic, UCLA has been right about the severity of the last 4 economic downturns, so hopefully they will keep their track record spotless.

The only reason that UCLA might be correct about no recession in our future is that we will go right into a depression. These economists are merely cheerleaders sent out to prevent panic in the markets. My advice is to panic.

Maybe the market wont plunge directly into a recession, but I think the inflation that will take place as a result of higher oil prices, the interest rate drops over at the federal reserve, the open checkbook of this administration, and the decreasing use of the dollar overseas will probably have a significant impact in the longrun. If we don't change things around I think we may be in for some major problems sometimes in the next few decades. I hope not, but I don't see how the increasing debt and weakening dollar can lead us anywhere else.

Perhaps what UCLA is really saying is that we will not have an official "recession" because, as RAy rightly points out, the statistics used to determine when a recession exists are controlled by the government who will pretend whatever they think is best for themselves politically. I've been saying that the unemployment numbers are bull shit for a long time, now people are beginning to wake up.

"Show this to your stock broker after you pay $4/gallon".

Posted by Unclesam



I am sure only a handfull of peole who post here own stocks. And I am sure gas prices do not effect them either since most do not own cars either.

okay so lets play a game.
please rank the following in order of appearance

ucla economists said to be
1)pawns of the bush administration

2)told to clean out their desk since they are bush apologists

3) said to have said this because its actually going to be much worse

4)called ditto heads

5) nutcase will post some link from some leftwing source.
(yeah yeah, I went back and saw where you allready did, you see, thats the joke part of it. ha ha)

6)drudge posters will deny there is anything other than deary and disparaging economic news unless a dem is elected to the white house and then....JUST LIKE SOCIAL SECURITY......the sun will come up and the rainbow will come out and the outlook will then be that we will all live happily ever after.

THE END

Yeah BLT John McBush ought to ask the question when he campaigns....."are you better off than you were eight years ago????" See how many votes that gets him. Pretending that an economic crisis is not looming will not make it go away. Bush just prays everyday that it will land in the next president's lap....$600 each ought to buy him just about enough time. Cynical bastard.

It would be wonderful news if UCLA is right, but I though that technically we already were in a recession?

And Danni And ROC, I don't think anything is going to happen with the fake employment records. We see other counties do it differently mind you, so it's not like we can just say because the government is doing it therefore it's going to be done wrong. Someone with political will is going to have to change it. Perhaps start with a GAO study?

Actually BigJohn I think somehow the statistics should not be under the control of a political appointee and shouldn't be under the authority of any elected official. The only way we could end up with believable numbers would be to have the statistics compiled by completely apoltical professionals under civil service rules. That wouln't be that hard to set up, it would just take a president willing to take a risk that his/her own popularity could be effected if the numbers don't go well during their term.

BLT,

Paul Craig Roberts is a Conservative pHD economist. Though out of the mainstream now, he was Reagan's Assistant Secretary of the Treasury. The best columnist by far. He reads the Governments monthly reports and explains the consequences.

I harbor almost as much contempt for Democrats as Republicans, its just that Bush is, unfortunately, at the steering wheel. Logical criticism of BushCo is far more likely to come from Conservatives than Liberals, at least the one's that aren't partisan shills.

If we're NOT currently in a recession, BJ and Danni, then the term needs redefining. Inflation rampant, especially in oil; the market in the toilet, seven-plus years of bushery a total wash; the dollar going the way of the zloty; a little matter of a trillion-dollar ego war that no one is worried about paying off; the sucking noise of US jobs moving south of the border and west of the Pacific becoming a Niagara-sized roar. Pardon me, but isn't Herbert Hoover throwing up in his grave? herm

But most economists due expect if we aren't in one yet, we are headed there.

And let me add evictions, that suddenly no one can afford a place to live any more. THAT spells even more recession than does the Dow. herm